Analysis: Oil prices, US Treasury yields, and Federal Reserve policy may dominate the next phase of Bitcoin's price movement.

Analysts say that Bitcoin's next phase of price movement is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors, including oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, rather than purely internal factors within the crypto market. Following the previous large-scale deleveraging, leverage in the crypto derivatives market has significantly decreased, changing the market structure. Bitcoin is shifting from a "leverage-driven correction phase" to a "macro liquidity-driven consolidation phase." With decreased participation in derivatives, the market's sensitivity to the overall liquidity environment has increased significantly. The energy market has recently become a key variable. International oil prices have risen approximately 80% from their lows to their highs over the past three weeks, briefly exceeding $100 per barrel amid escalating US-Iran tensions. Rising oil prices are typically accompanied by rising US real yields and a stronger dollar, tightening global liquidity and potentially limiting short-term upside for risk assets. Simultaneously, rising energy prices also push up inflation expectations. Since energy accounts for approximately 9% of the CPI basket in developed economies, continued oil price increases may delay market expectations of interest rate cuts, keeping financial conditions tight. Analysts point out that Bitcoin's recent performance has shown a significantly stronger correlation with technology stocks, rather than traditional safe-haven assets like gold. (The Block)