BlackRock Investment Institute analysts have expressed a cautious stance on long-term U.S. Treasuries due to recent airstrikes in Iran, which have triggered an energy-led supply chain shock. According to NS3.AI, the analysts note that oil futures pricing suggests disruptions could persist for weeks, potentially leading to a stagflationary shock, although this is not certain.
The analysts also indicate a preference for U.S. stocks, pointing out that the conflict has reversed the recent outperformance of international equities, particularly in regions reliant on energy imports. This shift underscores the impact of geopolitical tensions on global markets and investment strategies.