Economist Warns of Impending Economic Recession

According to ChainCatcher, macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg has criticized the Federal Reserve for overlooking significant economic patterns despite having over 400 PhD economists. Zeberg argues that the U.S. is heading towards a major economic recession, which the Federal Reserve has failed to recognize despite its extensive resources. Zeberg highlights the importance of understanding the correct sequence of events in the business cycle to predict economic downturns. He believes the Federal Reserve's current expectations underestimate the severity and timing of the upcoming recession. He points out that the unemployment rate is a reliable indicator that precedes every major economic recession. In November, the U.S. unemployment rate reached 4.6%, the highest in four years, nearing the recession threshold set by the Sahm Rule, and increasing the likelihood of a recession to approximately 40%.