Key TakeawaysXRP price remains below $2 amid macro and regulatory uncertaintyWhale distribution adds persistent selling pressure to the marketRising Japanese bond yields weigh on global crypto market sentimentImmediate Price Action Keeps XRP Below $2XRP price slipped to its lowest level since November 21, extending recent losses and underperforming the broader digital assets market. A break below the $1.90–$1.95 zone confirmed a short-term bearish reversal, limiting attempts to reclaim the $2 psychological level.Despite brief rebounds, dip demand has remained muted. Market participants continue to reduce exposure amid heightened volatility and declining risk appetite. Whale Activity Reduces Market DepthOn-chain data shows wallets holding 1M–100M XRP distributing roughly 1.18B XRP over the past four weeks. This cohort has historically provided downside support during corrections, but recent flows removed a key liquidity buffer.The scale of distribution outweighed daily trading activity of approximately $3.87B, amplifying selling pressure. Reduced market depth has increased XRP’s sensitivity to broader market shocks. Macro Risks Weigh On Crypto SentimentRising 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields near 2% have pressured global risk assets. XRP and JGB yields show an inverse relationship, reflecting concerns over a potential yen carry trade unwind.Economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points, narrowing the U.S.-Japan rate differential. Historically, similar conditions have led to liquidity tightening across equities and crypto markets, weighing on tokens like XRP. Regulatory Delays Add Downside FrictionSentiment also softened after reports that the U.S. Market Structure Bill markup was delayed until early 2026. The lack of near-term legislative clarity reduced optimism around broader crypto adoption.XRP remains especially sensitive to regulatory developments due to Ripple’s prolonged legal history with the SEC. Past legislative progress has triggered sharp rallies, but the current pause has left prices vulnerable to macro-driven moves. Technical Indicators Signal CautionLooking at the technical perspective, XRP trades below its short- and long-term trend measures. Key averages, including the 50-day EMA at 2.1967 and the 200-day EMA at 2.4406, remain well above current levels, reflecting weak price momentum.Source: TradingViewImmediate support sits near $1.82–$1.83, with further downside exposing the $1.75 region. On the upside, a sustained move above $1.95 would be required to restore short-term confidence and reopen the path toward $2.20–$2.35. Medium-Term Outlook Remains ConstructiveDespite short-term headwinds, the XRP forecast over the next 4–8 weeks remains cautiously optimistic. XRP-spot ETFs have recorded $10.89M in inflows, signaling steady institutional interest.Additionally, expectations for more crypto-friendly regulation and expanding XRP utility support a bullish medium-term outlook, with analysts eyeing a potential return toward $2.35–$2.50 if macro pressures ease.
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