Bitcoin’s U.S. demand is showing its first meaningful recovery in nearly a month as the Coinbase Premium Index flipped back into positive territory for the first time since late October. The shift suggests renewed U.S. spot-market buying pressure at a time when BTC is attempting to stabilize above $91,000 after November’s heavy drawdown.Why the Coinbase Premium MattersThe Coinbase Premium Index tracks the price difference between Coinbase’s U.S. spot market and the broader global average. Historically, it has served as one of the most reliable indicators of U.S. institutional and ETF-driven capital flows:Negative premium → U.S. outflows, risk-off sentiment, weaker ETF demandPositive premium → U.S. inflows, institutional accumulation, stronger dollar liquidityThursday marked the first sustained positive reading since late October, indicating that U.S. buyers—often large institutions and ETF market makers—are once again willing to pay slightly above global prices.Fresh Liquidity Is Building UpThe premium shift coincides with an increase in stablecoin “dry powder” across major exchanges. According to CryptoQuant data, Binance’s stablecoin reserves hit an all-time high of $51.1 billion in November, signaling significant capital waiting to be deployed.Options desks mirrored this tone.GSR reported that speculative long positions have largely been cleared out after two weeks of leveraged wipeouts, adding that:“The market is reset and positioned for growth. Skew and downside hedging have both normalized.”Research updates from Kronos and Presto echoed this, calling the recent move a standard oversold bounce rather than a capitulation bottom—but one with improving structural conditions.Key Levels: $95,000 Needed to Flip TrendWhile the positive premium is encouraging, Bitcoin remains stuck in a tight range:Immediate resistance: $90,000–$92,000Major breakout level: $95,000 (required to regain medium-term momentum)Downside risk: A drop below $87,000 could reopen the route toward $80,000, extending November’s capitulation phase.FxPro senior analyst Alex Kuptsikevich warned that $90,000—previously strong support—may now act as resistance:“Bulls need a firm break above $95,000 to reclaim the trend.”Sentiment Improves—But Caution RemainsThe Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed to 25, moving out of “Extreme Fear” for the first time in days. However, sentiment is still fragile:Only 1 in 7 major tokens posted gains over the past 24 hours.Market breadth remains thin, suggesting the recovery is BTC-led and narrow.Total crypto market cap continues to hover near $3.1 trillion, holding steady but lacking strong inflows.Bottom LineThe return of a positive Coinbase Premium is a meaningful shift—one that historically precedes stronger spot-driven rallies. Combined with record stablecoin reserves and a market reset after leveraged flushing, Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization.But until BTC breaks cleanly above $95,000, the broader downtrend from October’s $126,000 peak still looms in the background.
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