Key TakeawaysPending XRP ETF approvals could unleash $3–$8 billion in institutional inflows, according to analysts.Whales accumulated $1.1 billion in XRP despite retail pessimism, signaling confidence.Technical charts show a possible 60%–85% rally if XRP breaks decisively above $3.30.XRP Dips Below $3, but the Setup Remains BullishAfter briefly breaking above $3 on Oct. 2, XRP fell back to $2.84 on Tuesday, slipping under its 50-day EMA and losing short-term momentum. Yet, on-chain and structural indicators suggest the weakness could be temporary, as multiple catalysts align for a rebound heading into late October.1. XRP ETF Approvals Could Unlock Institutional DemandThe U.S. SEC faces a decisive window between Oct. 18 and Oct. 25, when it must rule on multiple spot XRP ETF applications.These filings are part of a broader batch of 16 crypto ETF decisions, including products from Fidelity, VanEck, and 21Shares.Since the SEC adopted generic listing standards for digital-asset ETFs in September 2025, analysts expect a smoother approval path. All 11 XRP ETF proposals have already met their technical listing requirements, opening the door for simultaneous approval.Analysts estimate potential inflows between $3 billion and $8 billion, comparable to the early adoption phase of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.Supporting this view, CoinShares data shows $220 million in weekly inflows into XRP investment products, bringing year-to-date inflows to $1.8 billion and total AUM to $3.2 billion — a new record.2. Whale Accumulation Offsets Retail FearDespite waning retail sentiment, large holders are quietly adding exposure. On-chain data reveals that whales accumulated 55 million XRP (≈$1.1 billion) in the past three days.The Net Holder Position Change metric has remained positive since August, suggesting steady accumulation near the $3 support level.Historically, similar phases of retail “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” (FUD) have preceded major price reversals — a pattern now reemerging across social sentiment data.3. Technical Setup Points to a Breakout Toward $5While short-term momentum has weakened, XRP’s higher-time-frame structure remains bullish. The token maintains its strongest weekly and monthly closing range since surpassing 2017 highs.Analyst EtherNasyonal notes that XRP’s seven-year descending channel versus Bitcoin broke in late 2024 — a structural shift that often precedes multi-month rallies.Chart patterns suggest that a decisive move above $3.30 could trigger a 60%–85% surge, targeting $4.80–$5.40.Trader Dentoshi highlighted a similar fractal, arguing that the longer XRP consolidates, the stronger its next breakout could be. However, veteran analyst Peter Brandt cautioned that a daily close below $2.65 would confirm a bearish triangle, potentially sending prices to $2.22.ETF Decisions Could Define XRP’s Next MoveXRP’s short-term volatility masks a fundamentally improving backdrop: institutional interest rising, whale accumulation strengthening, and key technical levels approaching breakout territory.If ETF approvals arrive later this month, XRP could reclaim $3.30 quickly and target $5 next, marking the start of a new cycle in its post-regulatory narrative, according to Cointelegraph.
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