Key TakeawaysBitcoin ETF inflows topped $3.5 billion this week, while exchange balances hit a five-year low, signaling strong institutional accumulation.Futures premiums and open interest remain healthy, suggesting traders expect BTC to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025.Despite a short-term sell-off, on-chain and derivatives data indicate sustained bullish momentum.Bitcoin Corrects After Record High, But Fundamentals Stay StrongBitcoin (BTC) price fell 4.2% to around $122,600 on Tuesday, following a brief surge to a new all-time high of $126,219. The pullback came after a 12.5% weekly gain, sparking fears of a deeper correction amid growing global economic uncertainty.However, derivatives and institutional data show that the rally remains supported by real capital inflows rather than speculation. Bitcoin’s two-month futures premium is hovering around 8% annualized, comfortably within the neutral-to-bullish range of 5%–10%.This balanced sentiment reduces the risk of mass liquidations and suggests traders are still positioning for upside, not exit.Institutional Flows Highlight Growing Bitcoin ConfidenceInstitutional adoption continues to anchor Bitcoin’s 2025 performance. The cryptocurrency is up 31% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500’s 14% gain.Data from CoinShares shows $3.55 billion in weekly net inflows into Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded products (ETPs and ETFs), bringing total assets under management to $195.2 billion. By comparison, silver-backed investment products hold only about $40 billion — underscoring Bitcoin’s growing dominance as a digital store of value.Meanwhile, firms such as Strategy, Metaplanet, and OranjeBTC continue to accumulate BTC as treasury assets. OranjeBTC’s recent stock market debut followed the accumulation of 3,675 BTC (over $445 million) as a corporate reserve.Exchange Reserves Drop to Five-Year LowData from Glassnode reveals that Bitcoin balances on exchanges have fallen to 2.38 million BTC, down from 2.99 million a month ago — the lowest level in five years.This decline signals reduced sell-side liquidity, with much of the supply moving into long-term storage or institutional custody. Even as over-the-counter (OTC) desks handle large transactions, the on-exchange shortage underscores a supply squeeze narrative.Derivatives Data Suggest Bullish ContinuationAccording to CoinGlass, Bitcoin futures open interest remains high at $72 billion, down just 2% from Monday’s peak — a healthy sign of ongoing market engagement.A deep derivatives market continues to attract hedge funds and institutional allocators, reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge amid stock market volatility.Analysts note that while short-term consolidation may follow, the combination of declining supply, institutional demand, and robust derivatives activity keeps Bitcoin’s year-end target near $150,000 well within reach.BTC Bull Market Still IntactDespite recent turbulence, Bitcoin’s underlying structure remains bullish. ETF inflows, falling exchange balances, and sustained open interest point to long-term accumulation rather than profit-taking.As institutional capital cycles into Q4 and global risk appetite stabilizes, analysts expect Bitcoin to challenge $150,000 by year’s end — with or without another short-term pullback.
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