Bitcoin News: Bitcoin Realized Losses Surge to Highest Levels Since FTX Collapse — Analysts Warn ‘Bottom Still Unclear’
Bitcoin’s renewed crash has pushed realized losses to levels not seen since the 2022 FTX meltdown, raising fears that the market may be entering a deeper capitulation phase as short-term holders dump coins at an accelerating pace.Bitcoin fell as low as $80,500 on Friday before rebounding to around $84,140, bringing the total drawdown from its early-October all-time high of $126,210 to 36%.Realized Losses Hit FTX-Era ExtremesAccording to Glassnode, investors are now realizing losses at a scale comparable to the darkest moments of the 2022 bear market.“The scale and speed of these losses reflect a meaningful washout of marginal demand as recent buyers unwind into the drawdown,”— Glassnode, on XThis metric spiked just minutes before Bitcoin briefly collapsed to $80,500, marking the lowest level since April.The surge in realized losses signals that large numbers of coins are being sold below their cost basis — often a hallmark of capitulation events.Short-Term Holders Are Leading the Sell-OffData shows that short-term holders (STHs) — investors who bought within the last few weeks or months — are overwhelmingly responsible for the latest wave of selling.CryptoQuant analysts noted that:STH capitulation often aligns with local bottomsBut failure to reclaim the STH cost basis historically signals deeper bear-market continuation“Failing to do so historically confirms a deeper bearish trend,”— CryptoQuantThis reinforces concerns that BTC may not have found its floor yet.Is the Bull Market Over? Leaders Are SplitFear is dominating crypto markets, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunging into Extreme Fear and Bitcoin now down four straight weeks.Yet industry veterans are divided over whether a true “crypto winter” is beginning.Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, dismissed the idea:“How can we have a bear market when we haven’t even had a proper bull market?”Others — including portfolio managers and technical analysts — are increasingly cautious.Where Could Bitcoin Bottom? Analysts Offer CluesWith support levels breaking rapidly, analysts warn that the next few weeks may determine whether Bitcoin is entering a longer downtrend or approaching a generational buying opportunity.What analysts are watching:Macro fear and rate-cut uncertaintyETF outflows, which hit $3.3B over the last monthLiquidity exhaustion after forced-selling cascadesSTH cost-basis reclaim near $95,000–$97,000Volume structure around the $80,000–$83,000 regionHistorical parallels are alarmingDuring the Terra-FTX crash cycle of 2022, BTC:Dropped from $33,000 to $16,000Consolidated below $20,000 for two monthsThen began the 2023–2025 bull cycleCould the same pattern repeat?Some analysts think so.Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and head of ETH treasury strategy at BitMine, expects volatility in the near term — but predicts a massive rebound:“Bitcoin could reach $150,000–$200,000 by the end of January 2026.”Bottom Line: The Market Is Searching for a FloorBitcoin is now:Down 36% from its highsPosting realized losses at FTX-era levelsSeeing capitulation from short-term investorsOperating under extreme fear conditionsMany indicators suggest a bottom could be forming — but only if BTC reclaims critical support levels soon.For now, investors are bracing for more volatility as the search for a true bottom continues.
