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Kalshi Study Reveals Prediction Markets Outperform Wall Street in Inflation Forecasts

22/12 22:13

According to ChainCatcher, a study by prediction market platform Kalshi, reported by CoinDesk, has found that prediction markets have outperformed Wall Street consensus expectations in forecasting inflation. Over a 25-month period, the average error of prediction markets was 40% lower than that of consensus forecasts. The study highlights the advantage of prediction markets in aggregating diverse information from numerous traders motivated by economic incentives, creating a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect. This allows for more responsive adjustments to changing environments. The findings suggest that market-based predictions can serve as valuable supplementary tools for institutional decision-makers, particularly during periods of high uncertainty. Kalshi's comparison of its platform's inflation forecasts with Wall Street consensus expectations revealed that market-based traders demonstrated higher accuracy than traditional economists and analysts over the 25-month observation period. This advantage was especially pronounced during times of economic volatility. Specifically, the study found that from February 2023 to mid-2025, prediction markets' estimates of year-over-year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had an average error 40% lower than consensus forecasts. When actual data significantly deviated from expectations, the advantage of prediction markets became more evident, with accuracy exceeding consensus expectations by up to 67%.

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