Overall MarketData source: TradingViewIn our previous weekly update, we emphasized the importance of Bitcoin swiftly reclaiming the $104,000 mark and stabilizing within its upward channel to prevent further declines. Unfortunately, that didn't materialize. After briefly surging to around $107,000, Bitcoin encountered intense selling pressure, breaking back below $104,000 with considerable downside force. Today, the $98,000 level emerges as the key support zone, especially following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that have amplified market caution. These developments come against a backdrop of weakening labor data, yet the Fed's focus remains squarely on combating persistent inflation, underscoring the delicate balance policymakers are striking in this environment.Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, a prominent voice in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), delivered a notably hawkish message this week, highlighting inflation as the more pressing risk compared to labor market softness. This stance has directly contributed to a sharp drop in the probability of a December rate cut, now hovering just below 50% according to futures markets. Such rhetoric has added downward pressure on risk-sensitive assets across the board. For instance, the S&P 500 has slipped below the 6,750 threshold, reflecting broader equity weakness, while U.S. tech stocks have undergone a meaningful correction. AI-linked names, which had been darlings of the market, have retraced between 7% and 10% from their recent highs, a pullback that feels measured but signals growing investor selectivity amid elevated valuations.On the flip side, traditional safe-haven assets have demonstrated resilience. Gold has reclaimed the $4,200 level as of yesterday, embodying its role as a hedge during uncertain times. Silver has followed suit, surging above $53 and sitting tantalizingly close to its all-time high of $54.45 set just a month ago. This strength in precious metals contrasts sharply with the bearish tilt in overall risk sentiment, which persists despite the positive news of the U.S. government's reopening after a 43-day shutdown. Market liquidity continues to feel constrained, even following the Federal Reserve's substantial $29.4 billion infusion into the banking system last Friday—an operation that marked the largest repo activity since 2020. Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield lingers around 4.10%, a level that suggests bond markets are pushing back against the Fed's recent rate cut, implying expectations for sustained or even higher rates to tame inflation.Turning to the options market, our team's observations indicate a subtle shift in trader positioning. For Bitcoin, sentiment appears less overtly bearish than it was two weeks ago, with significant volumes of put options being sold around the $98,000 strike—potentially signaling that some investors see value at these levels or are unwinding hedges. Ethereum, however, tells a different story, with a clear skew toward buying put options as a form of downside insurance, reflecting heightened caution amid its own price pressures. These dynamics highlight the nuanced ways traders are navigating the current landscape, balancing optimism with prudence.Drawing from our desk's in-depth analysis, there's reason for measured confidence in the broader equity markets. Historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to close higher within a one-month window following the resolution of government shutdowns, with positive returns in about 60% of cases over the past few decades. This pattern, combined with robust underlying fundamentals in global risk assets, supports a constructive view moving forward. That said, we can't ignore the evolving relationship between cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and traditional benchmarks such as the Nasdaq. In recent months, crypto has mirrored Nasdaq's downward moves closely but has notably decoupled during upward swings—a bearish asymmetry that serves as a warning sign. We interpret this as evidence of shifting investor priorities, with capital increasingly flowing toward AI-driven innovations rather than crypto and Web3 themes. Additionally, gold's impressive run is drawing attention away from Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative, exacerbating outflows from the crypto sector and contributing to its price depreciation.This week’s asset performances show divergent paths: risk assets under strain while commodities hold firm. Looking ahead, while short-term volatility may persist, particularly if rate-cut odds remain suppressed, the end of the shutdown could catalyze a rebound in equities, potentially spilling over to crypto if correlations realign. Investors should monitor Fed communications closely, as any softening in hawkish tones could reignite upside momentum. In the meantime, diversification into safe havens like gold remains a prudent strategy amid these crosswinds.Bitcoin ETF TrackerThe above table shows the daily BTC spot ETF net inflow data for the past five trading sessions.Following the substantial capital exodus detailed in our previous report—where U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.22 billion last week—our analysis indicates that this trend has persisted, albeit at a somewhat moderated pace. Through November 13, these ETFs have recorded a net outflow of approximately $620 million this week, driven by a mix of institutional repositioning and retail caution. This ongoing withdrawal underscores a broader market reluctance to embrace Bitcoin as a core investment amid the current economic landscape, where uncertainty looms large.The Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 25-basis-point rate cut at the end of October, lowering the federal funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4.00%, was intended to bolster economic activity in the face of softening labor data. However, this move has been accompanied by a deliberate slowing in the pace of Treasury securities reduction on the Fed's balance sheet—a process that began tapering earlier in the year and is set to conclude by December 1. Despite these efforts, risk sentiment remains subdued, with hawkish commentary from key Fed officials amplifying concerns over persistent inflation. Figures like Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have emphasized that inflation remains "too high," pushing back against expectations for further easing and reducing the probability of a December rate cut to around 50%, per futures market data. This shift has not only tempered enthusiasm for rate-sensitive assets but has also triggered widespread profit-taking across high-growth sectors, including artificial intelligence. A notable example is SoftBank's recent sale of its entire stake in Nvidia—comprising 32.1 million shares—for $5.83 billion in October, a move that has rippled through the market and contributed to a 2% drop in Nvidia shares upon disclosure.These capital outflows are exerting additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price, which has already tested key support levels this week. More critically, they signal to the broader market that traditional investors are not stepping in to buy the dip, even as Bitcoin trades at what some might view as discounted valuations. This hesitation reflects a reallocation of capital toward more established themes, such as AI infrastructure—despite the sector's own corrections—or traditional safe havens, as evidenced by gold's resilience above $4,200. In our view, this dynamic highlights Bitcoin's vulnerability in a hawkish policy environment, where the allure of "digital gold" dims against competing narratives and tighter liquidity conditions.Macro at a glanceThursday, November 6The Bank of England maintained its key interest rate at 4.00%, in line with market expectations. In a closely contested decision by the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee, five members voted to hold the bank rate steady, while four supported a 25 basis point reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey indicated that future rate cuts are on the horizon, prompting economists to anticipate a potential reduction before Christmas rather than early 2026.Friday, November 7Canada's October employment data revealed a robust addition of 66,600 jobs, far exceeding market forecasts and defying expectations of a modest decline. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% from 7.1% in September. The Bank of Canada has implemented 4 rate cuts in 2025 so far, with its interest rate at 2.25% after its October meeting.Sunday, November 9China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-over-year in October, marking a rebound from September's 0.3% decline. The producer price index (PPI) contracted by 2.1%, an improvement over the anticipated 2.3% drop.Tuesday, November 11The UK unemployment rate climbed to 5.0% in September, up from 4.8% in August. This deterioration in labor market conditions, combined with sluggish economic growth, is likely to intensify pressure on the Bank of England to implement a rate cut by year-end.Wednesday, November 12Federal Reserve officials delivered hawkish commentary on monetary policy. New York Fed President John Williams discussed the Fed's balance sheet strategy and the need for effective interest rate control amid recent cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed opposition to a December rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks despite labor market softening. These statements contributed to a negative market sentiment, leading to selloffs in risk assets.Later that day, the U.S. government shutdown concluded when President Trump signed a funding bill extending operations through January 30, 2026, marking the end of the longest shutdown in history at 43 days. While the resolution initially spurred a brief market rally, gains were erased amid diminished expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations and execution services. Email:
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