Bitcoin Treasury Companies Anticipate End of Bear Market

According to Cointelegraph, shares in Bitcoin treasury companies may be approaching the conclusion of a period of subdued price action. This follows an announcement by investment firm Kynikos Associates, which revealed it has closed its short position against Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holding company. James Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, stated that his firm unwound its short position on Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) and a long position on Bitcoin (BTC) at the start of the trading day on Friday. Pierre Rochard, CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, commented that the bear market for Bitcoin treasury companies is gradually coming to an end. Chanos noted that shares in Strategy have decreased by approximately 50% from their 2025 high, with the company’s market Net Asset Value (mNAV) compressing to 1.23x. He emphasized the prudence of covering this trade with mNAV below 1.25x, having dropped from around 2.0x as recently as July 2025. Additionally, Chanos highlighted that MSTR’s implied premium, calculated as its enterprise value minus the value of its 641,205 BTC stash, has declined from about $70 billion in July to $15 billion, indicating a potentially better valuation for the company. While MSTR might still face further mNAV compression, particularly if it issues more common equity, Chanos believes the thesis has largely played out. Rochard remarked that this development is the kind of signal that suggests a potential market reversal. Shares in numerous publicly traded companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets have experienced significant declines in recent months, leading some analysts to question the sustainability of Bitcoin treasury strategies. Strategy has been notably impacted in terms of total value, with its market cap dropping over 43% from $122.1 billion in July to $69.5 billion as of Friday. Metaplanet, a top-performing stock on the Tokyo Stock Exchange at the start of 2025, has similarly seen its market cap reduced by 56% since June 21. Other companies involved in Bitcoin acquisitions have even resorted to selling some of their BTC holdings to address outstanding debt. The crypto market has been under pressure, partly due to the U.S. government shutdown. However, multiple U.S. media outlets reported on Sunday that the Senate reached an agreement to pass a package of budget bills to end the shutdown. Following these reports, Bitcoin saw a 2% increase to $106,430 within 50 minutes, suggesting that the reopening of the government could enhance sentiment toward the crypto market.