Polymarket Predicts 32% Chance U.S. Government Shutdown Extends Beyond Mid-November

Key Takeaways:Polymarket data shows only a 20% chance that the U.S. government shutdown will end between Nov. 4–7.Odds increase slightly to 33% for resolution between Nov. 8–11, while 16% expect it to end between Nov. 12–15.The highest probability — 32% — suggests the shutdown could continue past Nov. 16.Prediction Markets Signal Lingering UncertaintyAccording to ChainCatcher, Polymarket, a leading prediction platform tracking real-world events, indicates that traders are increasingly betting on a prolonged U.S. government shutdown.Current market odds show the most likely outcome is that the standoff will extend beyond November 16, underscoring skepticism about near-term political compromise in Washington.Shutdown Timeline Probabilities (as of Nov. 3)Nov. 4–7: 20% chanceNov. 8–11: 33% chanceNov. 12–15: 16% chanceAfter Nov. 16: 32% chanceThese figures highlight growing market expectations that negotiations between Congress and the White House may drag deeper into November, despite mounting economic and political pressure.Market and Economic ImpactExtended government shutdowns can weigh on U.S. economic data releases, federal spending, and investor confidence, with potential spillover effects into global financial markets.Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could delay monetary policy decisions and dampen risk appetite, indirectly influencing crypto and equity volatility.