Key TakeawaysEconomist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin has a 50% probability of finishing October above $140,000.The forecast is based on hundreds of data-driven simulations modeling Bitcoin’s price since 2015.Bitcoin opened the month at $116,500, and a rise to $140K would mirror its average October gain of ~20%.October remains Bitcoin’s second-best month historically, trailing only November, per CoinGlass data.Bitcoin Faces 50–50 Odds of Reaching $140KBitcoin’s October rally may not be over yet, according to a new simulation-based forecast by economist Timothy Peterson, who estimates a 50% chance the world’s largest cryptocurrency will surpass $140,000 before month-end.“There is a 50% chance Bitcoin finishes the month above $140k,” Peterson wrote on X, adding there’s also a 43% chance it closes below $136,000.At its current level near $122,000, Bitcoin would need a 14.7% gain to reach the $140K mark — a move consistent with its historical October performance.Forecast Based on Data, Not SentimentPeterson said the model relies on Bitcoin’s daily price data from 2015, simulating price behavior through “real historical, repetitive volatility and rhythm.”“This is not human emotion or biased opinion — it’s hundreds of simulations based purely on real data,” he told Cointelegraph.The forecast suggests “half of Bitcoin’s typical October gains may have already happened,” but that the remaining upside remains in line with its decade-long trends.October’s Track Record Favors the BullsData from CoinGlass shows that October has averaged a 20.75% gain since 2013, making it Bitcoin’s second-best month.Only November has delivered stronger returns, averaging 46%, reinforcing seasonal optimism among crypto traders.Peterson noted that the month often marks a turning point for institutional liquidity, as Q3 portfolio rebalancing and fiscal-year planning drive capital back into risk assets.“Markets are cyclical in liquidity and sentiment. October historically marks the start of institutional positioning for year-end,” he said.Market Analysts See Momentum BuildingCrypto traders remain broadly bullish after Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $126,000 earlier this week.Analyst Jelle wrote on X that Bitcoin is “retesting previous highs” and that “it’s definitely over for bears,” while Matthew Hyland said, “the pressure is building.”Despite short-term uncertainty, the consensus among analysts remains that Bitcoin’s Q4 trajectory aligns with its strongest historical trend — October to November rallies.
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