Key Takeaways:Corporate treasuries accumulated 6,700 BTC ($1.2B) last week, led by Japan’s Metaplanet, which added 5,258 BTC.Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.24 billion in net inflows — more than double the treasury purchases — fueling Bitcoin’s latest all-time high.Analysts say ETF-driven institutional demand, shrinking exchange supply, and macro tailwinds are reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish momentum.Bitcoin Surges to $125K as Institutional Demand Heats UpBitcoin (BTC) surged past $125,000 over the weekend before consolidating near $123,911 at the time of writing, as institutional accumulation and ETF inflows drove a new wave of demand.According to on-chain data, Bitcoin treasury companies added more than 6,702 BTC last week — worth approximately $1.2 billion. The largest buyer was Metaplanet, a Tokyo-based investment firm often dubbed “Japan’s MicroStrategy,” which acquired 5,258 BTC on Wednesday alone.However, analysts say this was not the main catalyst behind Bitcoin’s price breakout. Instead, spot Bitcoin ETFs dominated the market narrative, recording $3.24 billion in net inflows — their second-best week on record, nearly matching the all-time high of $3.38 billion in November 2024.ETFs, Not Corporates, Drove Bitcoin’s Breakout“ETF inflows were the real spark,” said Vincent Liu, CIO at Kronos Research, in a recent note. “Tight exchange supply, a weaker dollar, and macro uncertainty are reinforcing bullish momentum.”Institutional accumulation has far outpaced Bitcoin’s new supply.Miners produce roughly 900 BTC per day.Corporates buy around 1,755 BTC daily.ETFs add another 1,430 BTC daily, on average, according to River Financial.This supply-demand imbalance, combined with a weakening U.S. dollar and a prolonged period of low interest rates, is driving what many call a “perfect setup” for Bitcoin’s next leg higher.Analysts See Structural Market ShiftMatt Poblocki, General Manager for Binance Australia and New Zealand, said the latest rally underscores a shift toward blue-chip digital assets like Bitcoin.“Bitcoin reaching another all-time high this year signals the asset’s enduring strength and growing maturity,” Poblocki said.“Institutional inflows, global regulatory clarity, and ETF adoption are cementing Bitcoin’s role in the mainstream financial system.”Similarly, Will Clemente III, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, said the rally was uniquely healthy:“This move wasn’t driven by treasury companies or leveraged traders — it was driven by spot ETF demand, meaning macro funds and portfolio managers are rotating into Bitcoin.”ETF Boom Marks New Phase of Institutional AdoptionBloomberg’s Eric Balchunas described last week’s ETF activity as “wild,” noting $3.3 billion in net inflows and $24 billion year-to-date — levels that mirror early phases of ETF booms in gold and equities.Bitcoin ETFs now hold over 1.5 million BTC, worth about $188 billion, representing 7.2% of total supply, according to Bitbo.Meanwhile, corporate treasuries collectively hold 1.4 million BTC, valued at $166 billion, or 6.6% of total supply.Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman of MicroStrategy, predicted in September that corporate and institutional demand would accelerate into year-end — a forecast that appears to be playing out.Shrinking Supply, Strong Macro TailwindsAnalysts agree that Bitcoin’s Q4 outlook is bullish, with the following catalysts expected to drive continued upside:ETF inflows accelerating as institutional participation broadens.Exchange reserves hitting six-year lows, reducing sell pressure.Rate cuts and fiat debasement fears boosting the appeal of hard assets.“Future Bitcoin gains will likely depend on institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and tightening supply,” said Kronos Research’s Liu. “ETF inflows and thin liquidity could make Q4 both volatile and rewarding.”
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