Bitcoin's Potential Surge Faces Skepticism Amid Market Trends

According to Cointelegraph, market analysts suggest that the anticipation of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs might actually hinder its immediate growth. Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan noted that the widespread expectation of Bitcoin's next peak across social media could indicate that the market is not yet ready for another bullish surge. Historically, markets often move contrary to retail expectations, suggesting that Bitcoin's current sentiment may not support a significant upswing. Bitcoin is currently trading at $109,679, just 2.1% below its all-time high of $111,970, achieved on May 22, according to CoinMarketCap. Over the past year, Bitcoin has increased by 61.32%. Quinlivan mentioned that a series of near misses might lead to a more aggressive upswing, as small traders become impatient and lose optimism. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, which gauges market sentiment, currently reads a "Greed" score of 72 out of 100. Dr. Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive, expressed skepticism about Bitcoin's performance in the third quarter of this year. Historically, the third quarter has been Bitcoin's weakest, with an average return of 6.03%, while the fourth quarter has been the strongest, averaging an 85.42% return, according to CoinGlass data. Dawson highlighted macroeconomic uncertainty as a key concern, noting that despite political pressure for rate cuts, the Federal Reserve appears likely to maintain interest rates, potentially reducing Bitcoin's appeal for substantial returns. The CME’s FedWatch tool indicates that 99.9% of market participants expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.50% on June 18. While Bitcoin's future remains uncertain, Quinlivan pointed out a growing optimism towards Ethereum. He observed that Ethereum has been gaining attention as it recovers from a low of $1,472 on April 9 to $2,793 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap. Despite this recovery, Ether is still down 21.50% over the past year. Quinlivan noted that Bitcoin's recent gains have allowed for profit redistribution, benefiting other market caps, including Ethereum. Dawson also mentioned that overall crypto trading volume might decline in the near term as summer in the Northern Hemisphere leads many investors to take vacations. This seasonal lull could result in sideways movement or sharp pullbacks as traders take profits from earlier gains. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.