Asian Currencies Face Increased Bearish Bets Amid Oil Price Volatility

On April 30, Jin10 reported that a Reuters survey indicates increased bearish bets on the Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, and Philippine peso due to oil price volatility, which has heightened market concerns over inflation, external balances, and economic growth. According to Jin10, the bi-weekly survey of 10 analysts, forex strategists, and economists shows that bearish bets on the Indonesian rupiah have reached their highest level since October 2022, with similar increases in bearish positions on the Thai baht, Philippine peso, and Indian rupee. Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group noted in a report that the Philippine peso and Thai baht remain vulnerable due to their strong correlation with oil prices, while Indonesia's unfavorable fiscal and energy dynamics continue to weaken the rupiah. More credible signals of conflict de-escalation are needed to alleviate depreciation pressures. Meanwhile, participants maintained long positions on the Singapore dollar and Malaysian ringgit and reduced bearish bets on the South Korean won.