Market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut on December 10 have surged above 70%, after New York Fed President John Williams — one of Jerome Powell’s closest policy allies — publicly stated that the central bank still has room to “adjust rates further in the near term.” The remarks sharply reversed weeks of skepticism fueled by internal disagreements among Fed officials and rising concerns over persistent inflation.For the past month, investors doubted whether the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) had enough consensus to deliver another cut. But a series of dovish signals from the Fed’s most influential policymakers has dramatically shifted sentiment.Labor Market Weakness Becomes Central Justification for a CutEconomists say the deteriorating labor market now provides the clearest rationale for a December cut.Unemployment rose to 4.4% in September, the highest in nearly four years.Early data following the government shutdown shows slowing hiring and rising signs of stress in sectors previously viewed as stable.“This labor market deterioration is a reasonable justification for a rate cut in December,” said Wells Fargo chief economist Tom Porcelli.Deutsche Bank’s chief U.S. economist Matthew Luzzetti echoed the concern, calling the job market “in a precarious state.”Williams’ Remarks Trigger a Market RepricingThe turning point came when New York Fed President John Williams — often considered part of the Fed’s “Big Three” alongside Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson — openly supported further rate adjustments:“I still believe there is room for further adjustments to interest rates in the near term,” Williams said last Friday.Markets immediately reacted.Odds of a December rate cut jumped from 39% to over 70% in 24 hours, according to CME FedWatch.Vanguard senior economist Josh Hirt said Williams’ statement was the decisive signal:“Powell, Williams, and Governor Waller now form a very powerful pro-cut camp.”Economists widely interpret Williams’ remarks as a message cleared at the highest level of the Fed.Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha noted that when a top official uses the phrase “in the short term,” it almost always refers to the next FOMC meeting.Why the Fed’s Internal Disagreements PersistDespite the strong shift toward rate-cut expectations, the December vote will likely not be unanimous. Several officials remain hesitant:Boston Fed President Susan Collins has expressed concerns about persistent inflation.Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan suggested she may not have supported the previous two rate cuts.Some policymakers argue financial conditions have already loosened via strong equity markets.Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester highlighted that the Fed faces an “impossible challenge”: navigating a mix of higher unemployment and still-elevated inflation, a dynamic resembling mild stagflation.Economists outline three core disputes inside the FOMC:Is policy tight or loose?Some say markets suggest policy is already easing; others point to housing and credit markets that remain tight.How should inflation be interpreted?The pro-cut camp says tariff-related distortions are masking underlying disinflation; hawks point to sticky inflation in non-tariff sectors.Why is weak hiring coexisting with strong consumer spending?Officials admit this paradox complicates policy signals.A High-Stakes Decision Made in a ‘Data Vacuum’A rare complication: because of the prolonged government shutdown, the Fed will not have updated employment or inflation data for the December meeting.This means policymakers will be forced to make their most consequential decision of the year with incomplete information.Mester said Powell may frame the December cut as an “insurance cut”—a precautionary move to soften economic momentum while watching how the economy responds.Why This Shift MattersA December rate cut would mark a major pivot in the Fed’s narrative and could reshape expectations for:bonds and equitiescredit marketshousingcryptocurrencies, which historically react strongly to easing cyclesEconomists say that with Powell, Williams, and Waller aligned, the probability of a December cut is now “highly probable” unless unexpected new risks emerge.

According to Odaily, NYDIG reports that Bitcoin's dominance rose to over 60% in early November. As the market experienced a pullback, funds consolidated into Bitcoin, stabilizing its dominance at approximately 59%.

Bitcoin’s abrupt drop to the $80,000 zone shocked traders, but back-tested data on multiple indicators suggests the market wash-out may be setting up for a longer-term rally to new highs.Key developmentsBTC’s monthly draw-down has reached around 23%, the steepest since June 2022.The price action has also tested the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023 — matching the start of the current bull cycle.Futures liquidations exceeded $1 billion, pointing to large forced exits across the market.The total crypto market cap has slid from about $4.2 trillion to $2.8 trillion, a 33% drop since early October.Fund and ETF outflows continue to rise, reinforcing structural selling pressures.A liquidity signal points to a possible bottomDespite the weak price action, one on-chain metric stands out: the spot bid-ask delta at 10% depth has surged to the second-highest level of 2025, indicating that buyers are stepping in during the decline. Historically, similar spikes preceded major bottoms and rallies. Analysts say if this pattern holds, a bottom could form in the coming weeks.Macro angle: Fed repricing and rate-cut expectationsIncreasing expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in December are helping support Bitcoin’s rebound. The odds of a cut have recently jumped, driven in part by dovish comments from senior Fed officials. While this shift is positive for risk assets, analysts caution the transition from rate hikes to easing may still take time, limiting the upside in the near-term.Why analysts warn of a bull trapSeveral factors suggest caution remains warranted:Digital asset treasury firms are trading below net asset value, limiting institutional accumulation.Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain weak, not yet verifying a structural reversal.Technical and options market data show heavy exposure to downside, with puts clustered in the $85K–$80K range.“Pessimism may have peaked, but I’d be cautious of walking into a bull trap,” said one leading options researcher.Outlook: Bottoming range and scenario planningBase case: Bitcoin may consolidate in a $80K–$88K range while liquidity conditions improve and ETF flows stabilise.Bull case: If the liquidity indicator continues to trend lower (e.g., from the current level toward -0.60 on the NFCI), a rally toward $100K+ could unfold by early 2026.Bear case: Failure to stabilize could push BTC down into the $70Ks before a durable bottom forms.In summary: Bitcoin’s current streak of losses is painful but may be part of a larger market reset. Real-time liquidity signals and macro repricing provide tentative hope for a turn-around. However, structural pressures remain entrenched and caution continues to be advised, according to Decrypt.

コインテレグラフの投稿によると、NYDIGは、11月上旬に60％以上に上昇したビットコインの支配率は、市場の引き下げの間に資金がBTCに集約されたため、約59％で安定したと述べた。

JPMorgan Chase’s move has renewed scrutiny of alleged anti-crypto debanking despite a Trump order banning the practice. source: https://decrypt.co/349769/jpmorgan-chase-ends-banking-ties-strike-ceo

ビットコイン金融会社トゥエンティ・ワン・キャピタルのジャック・マラーズCEOは、チェース銀行からの額入りの手紙を公開した。2025年9月2日付けのその手紙は、銀行秘密保護法やその他の規制の遵守上の問題、また異常な口座の動きが確認されたため、彼の口座が閉鎖されることを通知している。チェースはJPモルガン・チェースの子会社で、商業銀行とリテール・バンキングを専門としている。ジャック・マラーズ氏は、父親がJPモルガン・チェースと数十年にわたる取引関係にあるにもかかわらず、同銀行は具体的な理由を示すことなく、父親の今後の口座開設を禁止したと主張している。

1.オピニオン：ビットコインが8万7500ドルまで上昇、市場構造は依然「脆弱」、2.セキュリティ機関：暗号企業の15％～20％にも北朝鮮の工作員が潜んでいる、3.オピニオン：ビットコインが2024年以来最長の週間連敗、FRBの政策再評価が慎重なリバウンドを後押し、4.FRB高官が利下げを明確に主張、市場は12月のFRB利下げ確率が70％を超えて急上昇すると予想、5.FRB高官が明確に利下げを主張、市場は12月のFRB利下げ確率が70％を超えて急上昇すると予想；5.韓国の金融サービス当局が複数の暗号通貨取引所に制裁を科す；6.オピニオン：ビットコイン需要は反転するも、長期トレンドは変わらず；7.pump.funアドレスが1週間で4億500万USDCをKrakenに送金；8.ビットコインスポットETFが先週12億2000万ドルのネット流出ビットコインスポットETF、先週は12.2億ドルの資金流出、4週連続の資金流出；9.イーサリアムスポットETF、先週は5億ドルの資金流出、3週連続の資金流出

Pump. fun team has moved 405 million USDC into Kraken in the past week alone, and transferred 466 million USDC from Kraken to Circle. source: https://cryptonews.com/news/pump-fun-cashes-out-436-5m-usdc-token-slumps-24-in-1-week/

South Korea’s financial watchdog is preparing new penalties for major crypto exchanges over anti-money laundering failures, escalating its enforcement push. source: https://cryptonews.com/news/south-korea-sanction-crypto-exchanges-aml-failures/

According to BlockBeats, U.S. President Donald Trump recently expressed on Truth Social that while the United States has generated substantial revenue from tariffs imposed on other countries, the full benefits have yet to be realized. He noted that many buyers have stockpiled goods to avoid short-term tariff payments, exceeding actual demand. This strategy has proven effective, and soon all applicable goods will inevitably be subject to tariffs, leading to a significant increase in tariff revenue, surpassing current record levels. Trump emphasized that these revenues will set new records and propel the U.S. onto an unprecedented path. Trump stated that the U.S. is already a highly sought-after nation, and the power of tariffs will bring unparalleled national security and wealth. He criticized those opposing the tariffs, accusing them of serving foreign interests that conflict with America's success, security, and prosperity. Trump expressed anticipation for a Supreme Court ruling on this urgent matter, which he believes will allow the U.S. to continue its progress without interference. He thanked everyone for their attention to the issue.

ウィリアムズNY連銀総裁の声明は、ハイレベルなコンセンサスのシグナルと解釈され、市場は大幅に修正すると予想される。エコノミストは、利下げを支持する強力な陣営を形成する最も影響力のある3人の高官は、揺らぐことは難しいだろうと指摘した。

私たちが今目の当たりにしているのは、競合する2つの通貨システムの直接対決である。

米国は、米国内のビットコインマイニングハードウェアの80％を支配する中国の巨大企業、ビットメイン社に対する連邦調査を開始した。

Bitcoin Core v30でOP_RETURN制限がリリースされ、誰もが「Ordinalsのinscription制限が無効だから」と言っている。本当の理由はOrdinalsではなくBitVMです。 この話にはOrdinalsの物語以上のものがあります。

特別に細工された委任取引により、カルダノのネットワークが2つの相反するチェーンに分裂し、取引所、DeFiアプリ、そしてユーザーが混乱した。開発者はすぐに緊急修正プログラムを導入し、コンセンサスを回復させ、ユーザーの資金が失われなかったことを確認した。

暗号通貨、AIと米国株式パッシブ投資ファンドは、相関性の高い「川をつなぐ鉄のロープ」の傾向を形成している、BTCのクラッシュだけでなく、重い暗号資産だけでなく、ETFや導電チェーンの関連上場企業を通じて、株式ポートフォリオは、直接流動性圧力を構成しています。

DATは高いハードルに直面するだろう。ほとんどのDATはディスカウントで取引され、プレミアムで取引されるのは一部のトップ・パフォーマーだけだ。

最近の市場の反落は単一の要因によるものではなく、テクニカルサイクルのトップシグナル、マクロ流動性の逼迫、機関投資家の利益確定売り、地域社会の意見の相違などが組み合わさった結果である。

ゴールデンファイナンスは、朝の暗号通貨・ブロックチェーン業界ニュースレター「Golden Morning 888」を創刊し、最新・最速のデジタル通貨・ブロックチェーン業界ニュースをお届けします。

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