The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, but uncertain forward guidance from Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations for a near-term Bitcoin breakout.Analysts say Powell’s remarks — neither fully hawkish nor dovish — signal that the meaningful portion of the easing cycle may not begin until 2026, leaving crypto markets without a strong macro catalyst in the short term.Powell Warns of “No Risk-Free Path,” Signals Caution AheadAt the December FOMC meeting, Powell emphasized the complexity of the current economic landscape:“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy.”While the comments were softer than some feared, they lacked the clarity markets hoped for. According to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin, Powell’s communication suggests only one rate cut may materialize in 2026 under his leadership.Puckrin noted that liquidity, not rates, will be the key macro driver:“Attention will turn to liquidity and the Fed’s balance sheet policy in early 2026. Despite the Treasury bill purchase announced today, quantitative easing isn’t coming until things start breaking — and that always means more volatility and potential pain.”Market Data Shows Traders Skeptical of Further Cuts Before 2026Bitcoin typically benefits from lower rates and increased liquidity, but futures traders remain cautious.Only 24.4% of the market currently expects another rate cut at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.This uncertainty follows months of missing economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown — a gap Powell acknowledged during the press conference.Meanwhile, BTC traded around $90,375 following the announcement, holding within its recent range but lacking directional conviction.Inside the Fed’s Assessment: Growth Resilient, Housing Weak, Inflation StubbornPowell said consumer spending and business investment remain “solid,” while labor markets continue to show low layoffs and stable hiring.However, he emphasized that inflation remains elevated, and the housing sector shows persistent weakness, limiting the Fed’s room for aggressive easing.The lack of recent public economic reports has forced the Fed to rely heavily on market-based indicators — a point Powell admitted may complicate policymaking.Politics Loom Over Monetary Policy: Trump Signals Incoming Fed Leadership ShiftWith Powell’s term set to expire in May 2026, President Donald Trump has been openly weighing a replacement.Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council and a former adviser to Coinbase’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, is widely viewed as the frontrunner.Trump has already signaled that the next chair will be expected to accelerate rate cuts, adding political pressure to an already delicate macro environment.Bitcoin Rally Delayed, Not CanceledThe Fed’s December decision reinforces a familiar short-term setup:Rates are lower, but not enough to trigger a risk-asset surge.Forward guidance is mixed, limiting near-term conviction.Liquidity injections have begun, but QE remains off the table until conditions worsen.BTC derivatives show skepticism, with limited expectations of a breakout before 2026.In other words, Bitcoin may remain range-bound until clearer signals emerge from the Fed — or until the next phase of easing begins.

Bitcoin may benefit from the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and liquidity injections, but BTC options pricing shows traders see limited probability of a rally above $100,000 in the near term, even as macro conditions shift in favor of risk assets.Fed Cuts Rates to 3.75%, Opens Liquidity Valve With Bond PurchasesThe Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, lowering the upper bound to 3.75%, but the committee revealed an unusually split vote, with two members preferring no cut.Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, citing labor-market softening and persistent inflation risks.More consequential for markets was the Fed’s announcement of a $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase program, reversing years of balance-sheet reduction. After peaking near $9 trillion in 2022, the balance sheet now sits around $6.6 trillion.The Fed’s re-entry into bond markets is designed to bolster liquidity, allowing banks more capacity to lend and stimulating investment during an economic slowdown.Bitcoin Options Market: 70% Probability BTC Stays Below $100K by JanuaryDespite improved liquidity conditions, Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious.The $100,000 January 30 call option trades at a premium of $3,440, implying roughly a 70% chance BTC stays under $100K through the end of January, based on Black–Scholes modeling.Just one month ago, the same call traded near $12,700, reflecting a sharp drop in bullish conviction.This expiration lies just two days after the next FOMC meeting on Jan. 28, adding macro uncertainty. According to CME FedWatch, markets assign 24% odds of another rate cut at that meeting, though visibility is limited due to the recent U.S. government data-release disruptions.Why the Fed Boosts Stocks More Than BitcoinEquities respond more directly to lower rates as cheaper financing supports earnings growth.Bitcoin, however, has lagged gold and has struggled to attract strong inflows from investors repositioning out of short-term bonds.S&P 500 is up 13% over the past six months.5-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped from 4.1% to 3.72%.Despite favorable macro shifts, whales and market makers remain unconvinced that Bitcoin can sustain a breakout, especially as store-of-value demand favors gold amid rising U.S. debt concerns.What Could Change the Outlook?Analysts note that a spike in equity risk premiums, especially in frothy segments like AI-related stocks, could redirect capital into alternative assets — including Bitcoin.But for now, BTC remains capped below $100K with derivatives positioning signaling skepticism toward a durable rally.

公式発表によると、BitMartは12月11日21:00(EST)にAlmanak(ALMANAK)をデビューさせ、ALMANAK/USDTペアをオープンします。 Almanakは、検証可能で自律的なマルチインテリジェンス体のインテリジェンスを通じて、定量的金融の未来を再形成する画期的なAIネイティブの非管理型エコシステムです。AIと分散型金融の融合のために設計されたこのプラットフォームは、ユーザー、開発者、機関投資家が、複雑な取引や資産運用戦略をチェーンや集中型市場全体で容易に設計、最適化、展開することを可能にします。Almanakは、その中核となる革新技術であるAlmanak AIコミュニティ、ストラテジー・インフラストラクチャ、ERC-を通じて、クオンツ金融の未来のために設計されています。7540トークン化されたAI保管庫は、インテリジェント・エージェントが研究、プログラム、テスト、決定論的金融戦略を数分で実行するために協力する機関レベルの環境をユーザーに提供します。戦略をコンポーザブルなトークン化商品に変換することで、Almanakは収益、流動性、資本の調整を促進する統一レイヤーのロックを解除し、より広範なDeFi経済を推進します。

According to Odaily, trader Banmuxia has analyzed recent Bitcoin movements, noting a surge that occurred early in the morning, though it was not substantial. The increase from $80,500 appears to be forming a leading wedge pattern. Within the context of a major fourth wave adjustment, this leading wedge is likely the 'a' wave, suggesting that the current adjustment should not exceed the range of $93,100 to $83,800. The adjustment is nearing the 0.382 level, indicating a possible conclusion. Additionally, the $89,000 to $90,000 range serves as a strong support level. The market anticipates a potential rise to $103,500 to $112,500 over the next month, though the process may be quite volatile.

Vitalik Buterin addressed fears following a Prysm client bug that briefly slowed Ethereum’s ability to finalize blocks. source: https://coindoo.com/vitalik-buterin-says-ethereum-remains-secure-despite-recent-network-glitch/

Binance announced today that Binance Alpha will be the first platform globally to feature BeatSwap (BTX), with trading scheduled to open on December 11. The listing marks another strategic expansion for Alpha’s early-access ecosystem, offering users the opportunity to engage with emerging, high-potential digital assets before they reach broader markets.Airdrop Claims Available Through Alpha PointsOnce BTX trading goes live, eligible Binance Alpha users will be able to claim their BTX airdrop directly through the Alpha Events page using their accumulated Alpha Points.Full details — including eligibility, claim mechanics, and distribution timelines — will be released shortly.

Binance announced today that Binance Alpha will be the first platform globally to feature BeatSwap (BTX), with trading scheduled to open on December 11. The listing marks another strategic expansion for Alpha’s early-access ecosystem, offering users the opportunity to engage with emerging, high-potential digital assets before they reach broader markets. Airdrop Claims Available Through Alpha PointsOnce BTX trading goes live, eligible Binance Alpha users will be able to claim their BTX airdrop directly through the Alpha Events page using their accumulated Alpha Points. Full details — including eligibility, claim mechanics, and distribution timelines — will be released shortly source: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/33558320524633?utm_source=BinanceNewsRSS

トレーダーHalfwood Summer氏は、BTCも早朝に急騰したが、十分ではなかったと投稿している。80.5Kドルからの上昇は、現在ガイディングウェッジと見られている。大きな4波修正という一般的な基調の下では、このガイディングウェッジが1波となる可能性が高いので、現在の修正は931～838万ドル期よりも大きくなる必要はない。現在の調整は0.382の位置に近く、終了する可能性がある。同時に、89,000～90,000ドルは比較的強いサポートポジションである。市場は1035万～1125万ドルに来月の上昇のポジションを与えている。プロセスはまだ非常に複雑になる可能性がある。

State Street and Galaxy Asset Management will launch a tokenized liquidity fund called the State Street Galaxy Onchain Liquidity Sweep Fund in 2026. <p>The post State Street and Galaxy Target 2026 With Solana-Powered Tokenized Liquidity Product first appeared on Ecoinimist. </p> source: https://ecoinimist.com/2025/12/11/state-street-galaxy-target-2026-fund/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=state-street-galaxy-target-2026-fund

Binance announced today that it will fully support the upcoming BNB Smart Chain (BEP20) network upgrade and hard fork, ensuring uninterrupted service quality and optimal user experience across the ecosystem. To prepare for the upgrade, Binance will conduct scheduled wallet maintenance for the BNB Smart Chain (BEP20) network on 2025-12-16 at 06:00 (UTC). As part of this process, deposits and withdrawals will be temporarily suspended starting at 05:55 (UTC) and will reopen once maintenance is completed—expected to take approximately one hour. Network Upgrade & Hard Fork TimelineThe BNB Smart Chain (BEP20) network upgrade and hard fork are set to occur at 2026-01-14 at 02:30 (UTC) source: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/33558270665786?utm_source=BinanceNewsRSS

FRBは一夜にして、必要に応じて米国債の短期買い入れを開始すると発表し、ニューヨーク連銀はその発表と同期して、今後30日間に400億ドルの短期国債を買い入れる計画を発表した。RMPはQEではないにもかかわらず、市場は意に介さず、米国債、米国株、金、原油はすべて上昇した。

ケンは、暗号通貨はカジノに過ぎず、革命ではないことに気づいている。しかし、本当の答えは、現実的な楽観主義こそが正しい態度だということだ。

徐々に印刷が始まる。

FRBは25ベーシスポイントの利下げで今年を終えたが、なぜ内部分裂がまだ続いているのか？ドットプロットやパウエル議長の記者会見メッセージが市場予想よりハト派的だった理由とその解釈は？市場は今後どこへ向かうのか？

結論：25bpsの利下げ自体は予想通りだったが、ドットプロットと記者会見のメッセージは市場の予想よりもハト派的だった。

パウエル, 連邦準備制度理事会, 利下げ, 関税, インフレ, パウエルは言葉を連ねている：うまく設計された「ダンピング」とさようならゴールデンファイナンス、来年の利下げは一度だけ？

FRB, 利下げ, パウエル, 金融政策, 2025年12月FRB金利会合議事録：RMPゴールド・ファイナンス、FRB RMPがやってきた。

UAEのマクロ的な考え方は非常に明確で、過去の石油経済から将来を見据えたフィンテック・ハブの中心地への移行を加速させている。暗号セクターはこの変革の中核セクターの一つであり、現在、より有利な立場にある。

ゴールデンファイナンスは、朝の暗号通貨・ブロックチェーン業界ニュースレター「ゴールデンモーニング8」2905号を創刊し、最新・最速のデジタル通貨・ブロックチェーン業界ニュースをお届けします。

SEC、トランプ氏が「FRB議長最終面接」を実施へ ハセット氏はまだ「釘付け」にならず ゴールド・ファイナンス、ベサント氏もまだ続く見込み？