作者：Healing_Alchemist 来源：X，@Healing_chemist
很久没写推文了，一方面是观点都在DC分享了，一方面也是最近行情没有方向上的变化，也不好发分析。而现在，关键时刻到了，美股方向即将发生逆转！现在就是可能见顶的点（至于为什么是可能而非一定，因为波浪只有事后才能验证，而可能在事先就能判断）
我们都知道九月有一个事情叫做降息，很多人把降息解读为利好，可我不这么想，引用我朋友@ttyuanli的一句话，降息只有经济不好的时候才会降息，经济不好，股票怎么涨呢？
而目前很有可能是利空提前兑现，市场开始对降息做出反应。（我宏观不好，如有不同意见欢迎一起讨论）
而在美股见顶的背景下，BTC的价格行为就好玩了。
有些人认为BTC会在这时作为避险资产被炒作进而继续升高，我也认为如此，但我认为也就仅限这两个月，后续该跌还得跌。且甚至可能见到4开头的大饼。
而这种情况和我之前的预判产生了冲突，但也解释了为什么最近 $BTC 上涨如此之迅猛的原因：
因为美股见顶，时间紧任务重，留给他破新高的时间不多啦！
所以这些日子他也会且很大概率像个推土机一样以很小的回撤比率持续的上涨，最终完成对于新高的突破，实现整体形态的完善。
总结
①美股见顶，且级别很大，回调的时间会很长，预计半年至一年左右，回调的空间也会很大，至少20%
②BTC走势上缺乏一个对于7w4新高的突破，结合标普纳指来看很有可能走出一个快速的锯齿形态以很小的回撤完成突破。
③绚丽的烟花即将来临，希望你我不会成为其燃料，而是崩盘的欣赏者。
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