Trump's Election Could Ignite the Bitcoin Market as Odds and Prediction Platforms Suggest Higher Chances of Victory

According to data from the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, former President Donald Trump’s probability of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election has surged to 61.8%. Polymarket reflects market expectations for various events through user wagers, distinguishing itself from traditional polls by focusing more on the flow of funds and shifts in market sentiment. The platform has attracted over $3 billion in real money, making it an effective reference for analyzing political dynamics with greater persuasive power. Currently, Trump’s odds of winning stand at 1.57, while Kamala Harris’ odds are at 2.5. These odds reflect the global market's differing confidence in the two candidates, suggesting that Trump will likely secure the nomination.

If Trump becomes president, it would significantly impact the Bitcoin market. With his likely election, he has pledged to make Bitcoin a national strategic reserve. Over the past week, net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have reached $2.3 billion, indicating strong market optimism regarding both Trump's election and Bitcoin's future. His victory would provide a substantial boost and strong tailwinds for Bitcoin.

Several seasoned market analysts assert that the best opportunity to enter the market is often when election results are still pending. However, they also caution that market volatility is increasing, advising investors to maintain a rational approach.