摩根大通自 2023 年以来，已从其美联储账户中撤出近 3500 亿美元现金，并将其大部分投入美国政府债券。此举是该银行为抵御可能侵蚀其利润的降息威胁而采取的防御策略。
根据行业数据追踪机构 BankRegData 汇编的数据，截至今年第三季度，这家资产规模超过 4 万亿美元的银行，其在美联储的余额已从 2023 年底的 4090 亿美元骤降至仅 630 亿美元。
同期，该银行将其持有的美国国债规模从 2310 亿美元增加至 4500 亿美元。这一操作使其得以提前锁定较高收益率，以应对美联储降息。
这些资金转移反映了这家美国最大的银行如何为一段轻松盈利时期的结束做准备。在那段时期，银行将现金存放在美联储即可获得报酬，同时却只需向其多数储户支付极低利息。
摩根大通将现金从美联储转移到美债
2022 年和 2023 年初，美联储将其基准联邦基金利率目标区间从接近零的水平迅速提升至 5% 以上。该央行随后于 2024 年末开始下调其目标区间，并已暗示将进一步降息。本月，美联储将利率降至三年来的最低水平。
「很明显，摩根大通正在将资金从美联储转移到国债上，」BankRegData 创始人比尔·莫兰德（Bill Moreland）表示，「利率正在下降，他们这是在抢先行动。」摩根大通拒绝置评。
摩根大通未披露其投资组合中美国国债的期限，也未说明其使用利率互换合约管理风险的程度。在 2020 年和 2021 年利率处于低位时，摩根大通避免大量投资长期债券，这与美国银行等竞争对手不同，后者在 2022 年利率大幅上升时，其投资遭受了严重的账面损失。彼时，摩根大通稳定的存款基础使其在美联储存放的现金，于高利率期间所获回报超过了其需支付给储户的成本。
十年期美债收益率高于美联储的准备金利率
在降息前从现金转向国债的最新操作，有助于锁定较高的利率，从而限制了利率下降对盈利的冲击。摩根大通的撤资规模如此之大，以至于抵消了美国其余 4000 多家银行在美联储资金进出的总变动。自 2023 年底以来，各家银行在美联储的存款总额已从 1.9 万亿美元降至约 1.6 万亿美元。
自 2008 年以来，银行可从存放在美联储的现金中获得利息，这为美联储提供了一个影响金融体系短期利率和流动性的机制。然而，过去两年利息支付额飙升，2024 年作为准备金利息支付的金额高达 1865 亿美元。
美联储向银行支付的利息狂飙
美联储对准备金余额支付利息的做法存在争议。美国参议院于 10 月投票否决了一项旨在禁止美联储支付此项利息的法案。推动此项变更的参议员兰德·保罗（Rand Paul）辩称，美联储正在向银行支付数千亿美元，却让资金闲置。包括特德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）和里克·斯科特（Rick Scott）在内的其他共和党参议员也表示了反对。
在本月早些时候的一份报告中，保罗声称，自 2013 年以来，美联储利息支付的 20 大接收方已获得了 3050 亿美元，其中摩根大通在 2024 年获得了 150 亿美元，而该行当年的总利润为 585 亿美元。
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