According to Odaily, Fitch Ratings has revised its U.S. GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026. This adjustment follows the inclusion of economic data delayed due to last year's government shutdown. Fitch now anticipates a GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, up from the 1.8% predicted in its December 2025 Global Economic Outlook (GEO). For 2026, the growth forecast has been increased from 1.9% to 2.0%.
Due to incomplete data for October, recent trends in CPI inflation are challenging to interpret. It is estimated that the inflation rate will rise to 3.0% by December 2025, up from 2.7% in November, and will further increase to 3.2% by the end of 2026, influenced by delayed tariff effects.
Despite a slowdown in employment growth, the impact is expected to be offset by a decline in labor force growth, with the average unemployment rate projected to be 4.6% in 2026, close to recent levels. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, reducing the federal funds rate (upper limit) to 3.25%.
Miyuki
