Crypto News: Crypto Markets Eye Relief as U.S. Senate Reaches Deal to End Government Shutdown

Crypto markets may finally get a boost as the U.S. Senate has reportedly struck a deal to end the record 40-day government shutdown, according to Politico. The agreement comes after weeks of uncertainty that weighed heavily on Bitcoin and the broader digital asset sector.Key TakeawaysU.S. Senate reaches a three-part budget deal to reopen the government, per Politico.Shutdown nearing an end after Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s 15th attempt to secure bipartisan support.Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen more than 17% since early October, pressured by shutdown fears and tariff-driven risk-off sentiment.Prediction markets now show rising confidence that the shutdown will end this week.Historical precedent: Bitcoin rallied over 265% after the 2018–2019 shutdown ended.Senate Reaches Deal to End ShutdownPolitico reports that the U.S. Senate has secured enough votes to pass a three-part budget package that would end the ongoing government shutdown. The pending legislation appears to have more than the required 60 votes, based on two people familiar with the discussions.The deal marks the 15th attempt by Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune to gain Democratic support for the House-approved bill. If approved, it would lift the shutdown—now at 40 days, the longest since the 2018-2019 episode.An official vote is still pending.Shutdown Uncertainty Has Pressured Crypto MarketsOngoing uncertainty surrounding when the U.S. government would reopen has kept Bitcoin and crypto markets under heavy pressure.Bitcoin Price (Fact-Checked)Bitcoin initially surged to $126,080 six days into the shutdown on Oct. 6.BTC has since fallen more than 17% to around $99,000–$100,000, according to CoinGecko data.BTC remains down double digits over the past month.One of the steepest declines occurred on Oct. 10 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 100% tariffs on China, triggering volatility across global markets.Historical Context: BTC Rallied 266% After Last ShutdownThe last major U.S. government shutdown stretched from late December 2018 to late January 2019.After it ended on Jan. 25, 2019, Bitcoin surged from $3,550 to $13,000 within five months — a 266% rally.While not predictive, the historical reference is notable as markets evaluate the potential impact of the current shutdown ending.Prediction Markets Expect Shutdown to End This WeekPrediction markets are increasingly pricing in a resolution:Polymarket:54% chance the shutdown ends between Tuesday and Friday.Up from 27% just one day earlier.Kalshi:Estimates the shutdown will end Friday, marking Day 44.Meanwhile, President Trump announced on Sunday that most Americans will receive a $2,000 “tariff dividend,” funded by revenue from import tariffs. Roughly 85% of U.S. adults will qualify, excluding high-income earners.What This Means for Crypto:A shutdown agreement would remove a major source of market uncertainty.Bitcoin ETF flows, liquidity, and risk appetite have all been pressured during the shutdown.Ending the shutdown could improve liquidity conditions and reduce macro stress, benefiting risk assets broadly.