Bitcoin Market Cycles May Extend Amid Manufacturing PMI Trends

According to Cointelegraph, the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has historically shown alignment with significant peaks in Bitcoin’s market cycles. This pattern suggests that the current cycle could be longer than usual if the trend continues. The correlation between the ISM PMI and Bitcoin’s price was initially highlighted by Real Vision’s Raoul Pal and has since gained attention among macro-focused crypto analysts. Analyst Colin Talks Crypto noted that all three past Bitcoin cycle tops have broadly coincided with the cyclical peaks of this monthly index. If this relationship persists, it could indicate a considerably longer cycle than Bitcoin cycles typically exhibit. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, which assesses U.S. industrial activity, has remained below the neutral 50 mark for seven consecutive months, indicating contraction. A sustained move above 50 would suggest renewed economic expansion, historically linked to stronger Bitcoin price performance. Earlier this year, the PMI briefly rose above 50 before falling back into contraction territory, highlighting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing economy. The manufacturing PMI signaled a strong rebound in business sentiment at the start of the year, partly due to optimism surrounding the incoming Trump administration and expectations of business-friendly policies. However, high tariffs, uncertain trade policy, and soft global demand have continued to weigh on the sector, potentially extending the business cycle rather than accelerating it. ISM’s latest report showed a modest uptick in September, with prices rising while exports and imports contracted, indicating uneven conditions across manufacturing subsectors. Despite the weakness, ISM noted that manufacturing’s shrinking share of U.S. economic output means a contraction in the PMI does not necessarily signal a recession. ISM has previously observed that a sustained reading above 42.3 generally corresponds with growth in the broader economy. A purchasing manager from the transportation equipment industry reported in September that business remains severely depressed, citing shrinking profits and extreme taxes in the form of tariffs that have increased costs across the supply chain. They noted increased price pressures both to inputs and customer outputs as companies begin to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices by up to 20 percent.