Global Markets Rebound Amid Middle East Tensions

Global markets experienced a significant rebound over the past week, driven by expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East. According to BlockBeats, Iran's temporary announcement to open the Strait of Hormuz led to a rapid decline in oil prices, strengthening risk assets. U.S. stocks reached new highs, the dollar weakened, and gold approached the $4,900 mark. However, Iran later signaled continued military control, coupled with the U.S. maintaining its blockade, raising concerns about the fluctuating situation. On a macro level, the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations remains the biggest variable for the coming week. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that talks might advance over the weekend, warning that if no agreement is reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could end, and conflict might resume. Iran remains cautious in negotiations, particularly on key issues like uranium enrichment, where significant differences persist. The market has shifted from pricing in conflict escalation to a path of easing, but any sudden changes could still cause significant asset volatility. Regarding interest rate expectations, the decline in energy prices has eased inflationary pressures, with market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year rising to about 60%. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is set to attend a Senate hearing next week, where his policy stance, especially whether it leans dovish, will be a crucial factor influencing gold and risk assets. Key economic data releases include the U.S. March retail sales monthly rate on Tuesday at 20:30, initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 on Thursday at 20:30, and the preliminary April S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI on Thursday at 21:45. On Friday at 22:00, the final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and one-year inflation rate expectations will be released. In the short term, the market will focus on three main variables: U.S.-Iran negotiation progress, oil price trends, and Federal Reserve policy signals.