U.S. Recession Odds by 2026: Market and Expert Predictions

Polymarket's contract on the likelihood of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 suggests a 30% probability, with $1.3 million wagered on this market. According to NS3.AI, Goldman Sachs aligns with this view, also estimating a 30% chance. In contrast, JPMorgan predicts a slightly higher probability at 35%, while Moody's chief economist, Mark Zandi, assesses the risk to be closer to 50%.