OKX 行情显示，RAVE 短时跌破 9 美元，现报 9.4 美元，日内跌幅超 50%。

链上侦探 ZachXBT 在社交平台表示，不建议对由少数内部人士高度控制的代币进行做空操作。

Coingalss 数据显示，过去 1 小时全网爆仓 2932.24 万美元，多单爆仓 2419.84 万美元，空单爆仓 512.40 万美元。此外，过去 1 小时 RAVE 爆仓 768.37 万美元，BTC 爆仓 727.47 万美元。

受中东局势反复影响，比特币价格回落至约 7.6 万美元。此前，伊朗一度宣布开放霍尔木兹海峡，引发风险资产上涨并触发大规模空头挤压，但随后再次关闭该航道，市场情绪迅速逆转。数据显示，本轮行情触发 2026 年以来最大规模之一的清算事件，共有约 168,336 名交易者被强平，总金额达 7.62 亿美元，其中空头爆仓约 5.93 亿美元，占比接近四分之三。在上涨阶段，原油价格一度下跌近 10%，推动比特币突破 7.6 万至 7.8 万美元区间关键阻力；但随着霍尔木兹海峡重新进入军事管控，多艘油轮掉头，避险情绪回升，价格随之回落。结构上看，此次上涨由长期负资金费率推动，空头持续支付多头成本，积累挤压条件。尽管短期回调，比特币周线仍维持约 4.5%涨幅，以太坊等主流资产表现相对更稳。目前市场关注焦点转向 7.6 万美元关键支撑位，若周线收于该水平上方，或维持突破结构；若跌破，则价格可能重新回到自 3 月以来的震荡区间。（CoinDesk）

Key Takeaways US-Iran negotiations remain the biggest market risk next week.Oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz situation will continue to influence risk sentiment.Markets are increasingly pricing in Fed rate cuts later this year.Investors will closely watch economic data, including retail sales, jobless claims and PMI readings.Potential Fed leadership changes could also affect expectations for monetary policy. Middle East Tensions Remain the Main Market Driver Global markets rebounded over the past week as investors priced in a lower probability of a major escalation in the Middle East. Temporary optimism emerged after Iran signaled that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open, which pushed oil prices lower and boosted risk assets including equities and crypto. However, that optimism faded after Iran later indicated that the strait remains under military control and the US maintained its blockade on Iranian shipping. Markets have shifted from pricing in immediate escalation toward pricing in a potential de-escalation path, but sentiment remains fragile. The key question next week is whether negotiations between the US and Iran continue to progress. Donald Trump indicated that discussions may continue over the weekend and warned that if no agreement is reached by next Wednesday, the ceasefire could collapse and conflict could resume. Iran remains cautious, particularly around issues related to uranium enrichment and sanctions relief. Any signs of renewed conflict could quickly push oil prices higher again and pressure equities, crypto and other risk assets. Fed Expectations Are Becoming More Important Falling oil prices over the past few sessions have reduced some inflation concerns, which has helped lift expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of at least one Fed rate cut in 2026. Attention will also turn to potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership. Next week, Kevin Warsh is expected to testify before the Senate. Investors will be watching closely for any dovish comments on: InflationInterest ratesEconomic growthFinancial conditions A more dovish tone could support risk assets such as Bitcoin, equities and gold. Key Economic Events Next Week Tuesday US March retail sales data Thursday US weekly initial jobless claimsPreliminary April S&P Global Manufacturing PMIPreliminary April S&P Global Services PMI Friday Final April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment IndexFinal April one-year inflation expectations These reports will help investors assess whether the US economy remains resilient or whether higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are starting to weigh on growth. What Markets Will Watch Most Closely In the near term, markets are likely to remain driven by three main themes: US-Iran negotiations and the risk of renewed conflictOil price direction and the status of the Strait of HormuzFederal Reserve policy expectations and any changes in leadership tone For crypto markets, continued stabilization in oil prices and a more dovish Fed outlook would likely remain supportive for both Bitcoin and Ethereum.

OKX行情数据显示，RAVE短时跌超50%，现报10.9 USDT。

Stablecoins are exhibiting characteristics similar to fragmented foreign exchange markets, according to Eco CEO Ryne Saxe. According to NS3.AI, Saxe highlighted that the stablecoin sector, valued at over $320 billion, is experiencing liquidity fragmentation across various chains and pools. He noted that executing larger transfers often necessitates multi-route execution. Additionally, research by Borderless revealed that pricing discrepancies at the provider level within the same corridor can surpass hundreds of basis points.

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Former U.K. Prime Minister Liz Truss, who held office for 45 days in 2022, has expressed a keen interest in Bitcoin. According to NS3.AI, Truss highlighted concerns about the U.K. economy, citing issues such as currency debasement, weak growth, regulation, taxation, and increasing state control as contributing to a "very negative trajectory."

The discussion surrounding XRP's potential price target of $50 has gained momentum following a social media post that connected Ripple's projected $33 trillion stablecoin volume to future demand for XRP. According to NS3.AI, this projection has sparked debates among investors and analysts about the cryptocurrency's future valuation. Geoffrey Kendrick from Standard Chartered has forecasted XRP to reach $8 by 2026 and $28 by 2030, adding further intrigue to the ongoing conversation.

Former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has voiced criticism of central banking practices while defending her controversial mini-budget. According to CoinDesk, Truss suggested that incorporating Bitcoin and discussions at the CPAC UK conference could serve as catalysts for economic reform. Truss's mini-budget, which faced significant backlash, aimed to stimulate economic growth through tax cuts and increased public spending. However, it was met with skepticism from financial markets and political opponents, leading to its eventual withdrawal. Truss argues that the current central banking system is flawed and that alternative financial systems, such as cryptocurrencies, could offer solutions to existing economic challenges. She believes that Bitcoin, with its decentralized nature, could play a role in reshaping financial systems and promoting economic stability. The CPAC UK conference, known for its focus on conservative policies, provides a platform for discussing such reforms. Truss's comments highlight ongoing debates about the role of traditional financial institutions and the potential of digital currencies in shaping future economic policies. Her stance reflects a growing interest in exploring innovative approaches to address economic issues, despite the controversies surrounding her previous fiscal policies.

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