美联储是否仍愿意保留“下一步更可能降息”的政策暗示，还是开始承认风险已经转向双向。

In March 2026, prediction markets saw a total transaction volume of $25.7 billion, marking a 10.6% increase from the previous period. According to Odaily, the trading activity was predominantly concentrated among small retail users. Of the 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter, 82.3% of users engaged in transactions below $10,000. The growth was mainly driven by micro, light, and moderately active user groups, reflecting a market structure characterized by high-frequency participation with low transaction sizes. Cryptocurrency assets served as the primary entry point for prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of micro-user activity. Bitcoin-related event contracts attracted approximately 593,000 users in the first quarter, with a transaction volume of $5.42 billion, making it the most engaged crypto prediction market. Ethereum and Solana recorded transaction volumes of $1.19 billion and $420 million, respectively. In terms of category structure, sports markets led with a transaction volume of $10.1 billion, followed by political markets at $5 billion, with geopolitical-related transactions accounting for $2.41 billion. Overall, crypto-related markets reached a total transaction volume of $7.3 billion. Analysts suggest that the growth in prediction markets is primarily driven by 'category expansion' rather than an increase in single transaction sizes. Micro users were active for an average of 2.5 days, participating in 1.45 categories, while medium users increased their activity to 9.9 days, engaging in 2.34 categories, indicating a shift from single speculative activities to sustained participation across multiple markets.

数据显示，2026 年 3 月预测市场总交易量达到 257 亿美元，环比增长 10.6%，其中交易行为高度集中于小额散户用户。在第一季度追踪的 129 万个钱包中，82.3%的用户交易规模低于 1 万美元，增长主要来自微型、轻度及中等活跃度用户群体，市场整体呈现“高频参与、低单笔规模”的结构特征。加密资产是预测市场的主要入口，占微型用户活动的 39.6%。其中比特币相关事件合约在一季度吸引约 59.3 万用户，交易量达 54.2 亿美元，成为参与度最高的加密预测市场；以太坊与 Solana 分别录得 11.9 亿美元与 4.2 亿美元交易量。从品类结构看，体育类市场以 101 亿美元交易量位居第一，其次是政治类市场（50 亿美元），其中地缘政治相关占 24.1 亿美元，加密相关市场整体交易量达 73 亿美元。分析认为，预测市场增长主要依赖“类别扩展”而非单笔交易规模扩大。微型用户平均活跃 2.5 天、参与 1.45 个类别，而中等用户活跃度提升至 9.9 天、参与 2.34 个类别，显示用户正在从单一投机转向多市场持续参与结构。（The Block）

Standard Chartered has expressed confidence in the resilience of decentralized finance (DeFi) despite recent setbacks. According to NS3.AI, the bank described DeFi as "bent, not broken" following the KelpDAO exploit on April 18, which resulted in $292 million in losses and affected the AAVE platform. The incident led to a 38% decline in AAVE deposits and a 31% drop in active loans, as stolen tokens were used as collateral for borrowing other assets. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered remains optimistic, projecting that tokenized real-world assets will achieve a market capitalization of $2 trillion by the end of 2028, a significant increase from $35 billion in October 2025.

据 Gate 数据，现货白银向下触及 72 美元/盎司，创 4 月 7 日来新低，日内跌 1.53%。美元指数 DXY 升至日内高点，最高至 98.77。美、布两油短线持续拉升，最新报 105.75 和 107.79 美元/桶。

GSR 推出加密交易所交易基金 Crypto Core3 ETF，聚焦比特币、以太坊、Solana 三大核心加密资产组合配置。产品采用每周再平衡策略，动态调整各币种仓位结构，同时在以太坊与 Solana 部分引入质押收益。目前 GSR 已提交五只 ETF 申报材料，未来将持续扩充产品矩阵，进一步完善加密资产投资布局。(Coindesk)

Andre Cronje 表示，当前大部分去中心化金融（DeFi）协议已不再符合“严格意义上的 DeFi”，而更接近由团队运营的商业系统，并围绕是否应引入“熔断机制（circuit breakers）”以应对攻击风险，引发行业分歧。在接受采访时，Andre Cronje 指出，早期 DeFi 以不可篡改智能合约为核心，但如今大量协议依赖可升级合约、多签权限、链下基础设施与人工运维流程，本质上已从“不可变公共产品”转变为“可运营的盈利型业务”。他表示，在近期多起安全事件背景下，包括约 2.8 亿美元与 2.93 亿美元级别的 DeFi 攻击，行业风险已从单纯智能合约漏洞扩展至基础设施、权限控制及社会工程攻击等“Web2 式风险”。针对风险管理，Andre Cronje 所在的 Flying Tulip 近期引入熔断机制，在异常资金流出时延迟或排队提款，以提供约 6 小时的应急响应窗口，用于防止系统性挤兑与进一步损失。不过该机制也引发争议。Michael Egorov 认为，熔断机制可能引入新的中心化攻击面，如果由签名者或管理员控制，反而可能成为新的安全漏洞或冻结风险来源。他强调，DeFi 设计应尽量减少人为干预，而非增加人工控制节点。业内分析指出，这一争论本质上反映出 DeFi 正在从“代码即法律”的理想模型，逐步转向“混合治理+运营控制”的现实架构，而安全边界正在重新定义。（Cointelegraph）

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has promised to respond regarding the prospects of Iran-U.S. talks after consulting with Iranian leadership. According to Odaily, Shahbaz shared this information during a cabinet meeting, noting that Araghchi led a delegation to Pakistan last week for comprehensive discussions with Pakistani officials. Before departing, Araghchi assured Shahbaz that he would provide feedback following consultations with Iran's leadership. Shahbaz also mentioned that the ceasefire achieved between Iran and the U.S., facilitated by Pakistan, remains in effect.

TD Securities strategists have indicated that the euro may decline if the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and fails to commit to a rate hike in June as anticipated by the market. According to Jin10, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to emphasize uncertainties and the risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. She may suggest that more data is needed to assess the medium-term impact of rising energy prices on inflation. The strategists noted that if questioned about the possibility of a rate hike in June, Lagarde might reiterate that the ECB is prepared to act, provided the data supports such a move.

U.S. President Donald Trump held a meeting with energy company executives on Tuesday to address various issues related to domestic production, Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping. According to NS3.AI, White House officials revealed details of the meeting, highlighting the administration's focus on energy sector challenges and opportunities.

Ether.fi CEO Mike Silagadze has addressed the decision to contribute 5,000 ETH to the Kelp hack recovery fund. According to Odaily, Silagadze expressed concerns about the potential risk the incident poses to the entire DeFi ecosystem. He warned that if Kelp were to go bankrupt, $1.5 billion worth of rsETH could be frozen for an extended period, potentially halting the $30 billion Aave lending market and triggering a chain reaction affecting both DeFi and CeFi sectors. Silagadze compared the situation to the FTX collapse, suggesting it could be more significant. He emphasized the importance of taking responsibility and quickly raising funds to prevent the worst-case scenario, contrasting this proactive approach with other institutions that have opted to rely on legal solutions.

这一时间窗口，也将是阿联酋调整节奏、全面增产的关键窗口。

在加密货币圈外的人尚未察觉时，金融基础设施的重建进程已经越过了临界点。

原以为这个疯狂的 AI 疯狂更新应该已经告一段落了，没想到上周才发完 V4 的 DeepSeek ，突然端出一个更大的惊喜。

A software founder’s account of a catastrophic failure is reigniting concerns about the risks of deploying AI in live environments, after an autonomous coding agent reportedly deleted an entire production database and its backups in just seconds.

KelpDAO,人工智能,AI 无法拯救人类的愚蠢：从 KelpDAO 2.92 亿美元事件 看区块链安全的真正盲区 金色财经,AI 审计解决不了的问题，需要人来解决。

A hacker claimed to have taken over 300,000 Polymarket user records and tried to sell them on the dark web. Polymarket denied any breach, saying the data is already public through its on-chain systems and tools.

「Bitcoin 2026」大会让比特币的机构时代迎来审视时刻，执法部门、ETF 基金、企业储备资产与链上自主托管理念在此激烈碰撞。

A heir to iconic luxury brand Cartier has been sentenced by the U.S courts to 8 years in prison for his role in orchestrating a sprawling $470 million money laundering operation.

马斯克认为奥特曼改变了OpenAI的公益性质；奥特曼则认为马斯克意在打压OpenAI。