What does Tiantianlihao have to do with you?

Recent news has been buzzing: expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, US stock market legislation discussing crypto regulation, fund managers buying Ethereum, and slogans of Bitcoin being worth millions at conferences. It seems the crypto market is entering a "golden age." However, upon closer inspection, mainstream cryptocurrencies are only fluctuating within a narrow range, while altcoins are plummeting. Why?

1. Loud news, but weak demand

Despite the steady stream of positive news, the impact has fallen far short of expectations. Examples include Futian Holdings' on-chain bond issuance and Fosun's tokenization. While these products may seem impressive, the trading volume is negligible. The number of ordinary investors who can actually buy into them is extremely small. Data: The first batch of stablecoin pilot licenses granted by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority this year had a combined value of less than $1 billion, while the global stablecoin market capitalization has exceeded $160 billion. This small splash is barely enough to impact the market. 2. Licenses and regulations aren't for you. While the policy is certainly beneficial, it won't benefit most people. Case in point: The US 21st Century Financial Innovation Act explicitly imposes extremely high capital requirements on stablecoin issuers, meaning only giants like Circle and PayPal can afford it. Comparison: Even if retail investors eagerly buy so-called "compliant stablecoins," they're still merely users, far from being participants. 3. Elites are hoarding chips, while retail investors are absent. The structure of the chips is the soul of the market. For example, the Solana ecosystem has been very popular this year, but the actual circulation rate of many project tokens is less than 10%, with the vast majority in the hands of institutions and teams, leading to drastic price fluctuations. By comparison, Bitcoin's holdings are significantly more dispersed, with the proportion of the top 100 addresses declining year by year. Retail investor participation supports the underlying consensus. 4. The Logic of Price Stallion When demand is lacking and supply is tight, prices naturally stagnate. Data: According to CoinShares, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw approximately $440 million in net inflows in August, while ETH and altcoin ETFs experienced almost complete net outflows during the same period. In other words, money is flowing only into the leading projects, while the tail-end ones are being drained. Phenomenon: Many project owners would rather sell their tokens to survive than actively pump the market, fearing that if they do, they'll face a sell-off by established investors. This leads to an awkward market situation where no one moves. Conclusion: Daily good news can be a source of excitement, but if the barrier to entry remains high, liquidity remains poor, and consensus remains weak, these positive developments will have little relevance to most people. What can truly revitalize the market is an environment where everyone can enter and trade, rather than one or two pieces of news or a "symbolic purchase" by a fund.