Regret Quotes

At the end of the article the day before yesterday, a reader left a message:

"This round can only be said to be almost a collapse. Not to mention the last round of meme and DeFi market, there were a lot of coins that rose 100 times from low to high, and even on the exchange there were coins with large market capitalizations like ETH, which rose from 80 in 2018 to 4500 in 2021, an increase of more than 50 times. However, this round started from the low point in 2022, there was almost no coin that rose 50 times, not even a new high. Most of the altcoins were at a low level by the middle of 2025. If this continues until BTC also turns to decline, it will be a blow to everyone."

This message brought back a lot of memories for me.

Although the views and data expressed in this message seem relatively "negative" and "bleak", many of the statements are very close to the facts. For example, I agree with the view that "this round can only be described as a near collapse." Why is this round a near "collapse"? Because it simply can't compare to the glory of the previous round. The comment mentioned two ecosystems: meme and DeFi. What's actually more exciting is the NFT boom that followed these two. The ecosystem boom is one thing, but what's even more interesting is the timing of these ecosystems' booms. If we connect the dots between the timing of these ecosystems' booms, we can clearly paint a picture of the magnificent last round of market activity. My impression is that MEME (shitcoin) exploded early, followed by DeFi. For a period following the explosion of these two ecosystems, Ethereum's gains were modest, remaining below its previous highs. Then, after Ethereum broke through its previous high, MEME and DeFi continued to surge, triggering a surge in even more users to enter the crypto ecosystem. After that, especially after the 519 crash, MEME and DeFi calmed down and began to decline, allowing the NFT ecosystem to take over. Unlike other ecosystems, NFT assets are denominated in Ethereum, not USDC/USDT. Therefore, as NFTs continued to reach new highs, it meant that Ethereum-denominated assets were also reaching new highs. This provided a stronger leverage effect than MEME and DeFi, which are denominated in USDC/USDT.

Therefore, during the last round of market activity, if investors had bought Ethereum at a low price before these ecosystems exploded, even if they missed out on MEME and DeFi, as long as they had capitalized on the NFT market, they would have made good returns—the returns they earned from NFTs would have had a leverage effect that other ecosystems simply don't have.

That prosperity was both quantitative—the emergence of multiple ecosystems—and qualitative—each ecosystem produced a powerful "wealth-creating" effect.

So what we're seeing is a scene of widespread blossoming and vying for attention.

I estimate that the number of new users attracted to the ecosystem by the last round of booming ecosystems even exceeded the number of new users attracted by ICOs in the previous round.

This heyday is gone forever, and it's completely gone this time.

Although this round has also seen a flourishing meme ecosystem, its quality and impact cannot be compared to the shitcoins and PEOPLE of the previous round.

Although this round has also seen the rise of individual DeFi tokens, they simply cannot achieve scale or ecosystem impact.

Although the NFT ecosystem has seen a resurgence of the fat penguin, I always feel that it is like the last remaining glow of the setting sun. As far as the ecosystem is concerned, it is still struggling. As for the AI + Crypto market, which I've been closely following, at least for now, all I can say is continue to wait and observe. I used to think this might be a fluke of this market cycle, but after reading the memoirs of "Retail Investor B" on Snowball a while ago, I realized it wasn't a fluke at all, but rather an inevitable occurrence in any investment ecosystem. Because the much-despised A-shares also experienced a similar spectacle in their early years. In the early 1990s, when there were only dozens or even hundreds of stocks, A-share investors faced a scenario almost identical to the previous crypto cycle: As long as it was a stock, regardless of the company's quality, as long as investors held on, even if it suffered losses, it could flourish again and reach new highs. This situation didn't change until the late 1990s, as the A-share market grew in size, the number of stocks increased, and market capitalization soared. No longer would everything you bought rise in value or yield profits. The US stock market has long been like this: only tech companies with strong profits and promising prospects saw sharp price increases, while a large number of hopeless and worthless companies remained stagnant for long periods. I believe the current crypto market cycle marks a turning point. From this point forward, it's unlikely that the crypto ecosystem will see another surge in share prices due to copycat stocks. Projects that truly thrive will gradually return to fundamentals and value. As for the comment that "if this continues until BTC also turns to decline, it will be a blow to everyone," I think this is an inevitable process of weeding out the dross and retaining the essence—both for the projects themselves and for the investors themselves. If you're holding a valuable project, you can completely ignore this decline. However, if you still hope that your worthless project can make a comeback, then this is indeed a disaster.