Nearly 90% of central banks worldwide have cut interest rates, and macroeconomic data confirms that the crypto bull market is still in its early stages.

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, stated that the current cryptocurrency bull market is still in its early stages, judging by comprehensive economic indicators. In an analysis shared on the X platform on September 8, Bittel refuted the prevailing "peak cycle" sentiment in the cryptocurrency market and challenged the "late cycle" narrative by analyzing traditional economic indicators. A typical late-cycle economy is typically characterized by extremely high manufacturing sentiment (ISM index around 60), persistently high service sector sentiment, strong homebuilder confidence, strong consumer and worker confidence, bullish investor sentiment, and accelerating wage growth. However, Bittel pointed out that the current data presents a different picture. After incorporating indicators from the ISM (Institute for Supply Management), NAHB (National Association of Home Builders), NFIB (National Federation of Independent Businesses), BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) and The Conference Board (World Business Federation) into a comprehensive sentiment measurement system, he found that US economic sentiment remains "very moderate" and is far from the extremely optimistic levels of the late cycle. “Rather than being in a late-cycle economy that’s above trend, it’s more like an early-cycle economy that’s trying to gather momentum,” he said. Central bank policy provides additional support for this view. Nearly 90% of central banks worldwide are cutting interest rates, which Bittel said creates an “unconventional” environment and provides “a strong tailwind for the business cycle” over the long term. Oil price trends further confirm the "early stage of the cycle" assessment: current oil prices are nearly 20% below trend and continue to fall. This suggests that current financial conditions are accommodative, rather than the tightening conditions typically seen late in the cycle. Historically, since the early 1970s, oil prices exceeding trend by 50% have often preceded a recession.

Data for the temporary help services industry showed "early cycle characteristics": growth in this industry has gradually recovered from extremely low levels, indicating that the economy is in a recovery phase rather than a decline phase.

Bittel pointed out that the late stage of the cycle is usually characterized by "year-on-year growth turning from positive to slowing," reflecting that the overheated economy is losing momentum. He attributed the rise in unemployment to the lag in employment data, calling it "the last six months in the rearview mirror." Companies often increase overtime and hire temporary workers before deciding to hire "high-cost full-time employees with benefits and pensions." Bittel also defined the current economic environment as "a transition from early to mid-cycle," and described this process as moving from "macro spring" (rising growth and falling inflation) to "macro summer" (rising growth and rising inflation). He concluded that this macro perspective challenges the prevailing sentiment in the current cryptocurrency market, which believes that the bull cycle has peaked. On the contrary, the current economic environment is more supportive of continued market expansion rather than contraction.