IOSG Founder: Bitcoin Undergoes Historic Change of Hands

Author: Jocy, Founder of IOSG

This is a fundamental shift in market structure, yet most people are still viewing the new era through the lens of the old cycle.

A review of the 2025 crypto market reveals a paradigm shift from retail speculation to institutional allocation. Core data shows institutional holdings at 24%, while retail investors exited by 66%—the 2025 crypto market saw a complete turnover. Forget the four-year cycle; the institutional era of the crypto market has new rules! Let me use data and logic to dissect the truth behind this "worst year."

1/ Let's look at the surface data first — Asset performance in 2025

Traditional assets:

• Silver +130%

• Gold +66%

• Copper +34%

• Nasdaq +20.7% • S&P 500 +16.2% Crypto Assets: • BTC -5.4% • ETH -12% • Major Altcoins -35% to -60% Looks terrible? Continue reading. 2/ But if you only look at the price, you'll miss the most important signal. Although BTC has fallen 5.4% this year, it did reach an all-time high of $126,080 during that period. More importantly: what happened while the price was falling? • BTC ETF Net Inflows in 2025: $25 Billion • Total AUM: $114-120 Billion • Institutional Holdings: 24% 3/ The First Key Judgment: Market Dominance Has Shifted from Retail Investors to Institutions The approval of the BTC spot ETF in January 2024 was a watershed moment. Previously dominated by retail investors and OGs (Original Experts), the market is now dominated by macro investors, corporate treasuries, and sovereign wealth funds. This is not simply a change in participants, but a rewriting of the rules of the game. 4/ Data Supports This Judgment • BlackRock IBIT reached $50 billion AUM in 228 days, becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history, currently holding 780,000-800,000 BTC, surpassing MicroStrategy's 670,000 BTC. • Grayscale, BlackRock, and Fidelity account for 89% of the total assets of the BTC ETF. • 86% of institutional investors already hold or plan to allocate digital assets. • The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 will increase from 0.29 in 2024 to 0.5 in 2025. 5/ Institutional Participation Continues to Surge • 13F filings show institutional holdings accounting for 24% of total ETF AUM (Q3 2025) • Professional institutional investors account for 26.3%, an increase of 5.2% from Q3 • Large asset management companies account for 57% of 13F BTC ETF holdings, and professional hedge funds account for 41%, totaling nearly 98%. • FBTC institutional holdings reach 33.9% Major institutional investors include Abu Dhabi Investment Council (ADIC), Mubadala sovereign wealth fund, CoinShares, and Harvard University endowment fund (holding $116 million IBIT). Large traditional brokerages and banks are also increasing their holdings: Wells Fargo holds $491 million, Morgan Stanley $724 million, and JPMorgan Chase $346 million. The question arises: Why are institutions continuing to build positions at "high" levels? 6/ Because they're not looking at the price, but the cycle. After March 2024, long-term holders (LTH) sold a total of 1.4 million BTC, worth $121.17 billion—an unprecedented supply release. But miraculously, the price didn't crash. The reason is simple: institutional and corporate treasuries absorbed all this selling pressure. 7/ Three Waves of Selling by Long-Term Holders From March 2024 to November 2025, long-term holders (LTH) sold approximately 1.4 million BTC (worth $121.17 billion): • First Wave (Late 2023 - Early 2024): ETF approval, BTC rose from $25K to $73K • Second Wave (Late 2024): Trump's election, BTC surged towards $100K • The Third Wave (2025): BTC Stays Above $100K for an Extended Period Unlike the single, explosive distributions of 2013, 2017, and 2021, this time it's a multi-wave, sustained distribution. BTC has been consolidating at its high point for the past year, an unprecedented situation. The amount of BTC that hasn't moved for over two years has decreased by 1.6 million coins (approximately $140 billion) since the beginning of 2024, but the market's absorption capacity has significantly strengthened. 8/ Meanwhile, what are retail investors doing? • Active addresses continue to decline. • Google searches for "Bitcoin" fall to an 11-month low. • Small transactions of $0-$1 decrease by 66.38%. • Large transactions of over $10 million increase by 59.26%. • River estimates net retail selling of $247,000 in 2025. BTC (approximately $23 billion)

Conclusion: Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying.

Conclusion: Retail investors are selling, while institutions are buying.

10/ Policy Environment: Unprecedentedly Favorable

Trump Administration's 2025 Plans Already Implemented:

1. Crypto Executive Order (Signed January 23)

2. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (Approximately 200,000 BTC)

3. GENIUS Act Stablecoin Regulatory Framework

18/ Final Summary

2025 marks an acceleration in the institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite negative annual returns for BTC, ETF investors demonstrated strong "HODL" resilience.

2025 marks an acceleration in the institutionalization of the crypto market. Despite negative annual returns for BTC, ETF investors demonstrated strong "HODL" resilience.

18/ Final Summary

2025 marks an acceleration in the institutionalization of the crypto market.

Optimistic about the first half of 2026

19/ Long-term Outlook

As long-term practitioners and investors, our job is not to predict short-term prices, but to identify structural trends. Key points to watch in 2026 include: progress in market structure legislation, the possibility of expanding the strategic Bitcoin reserve, and policy continuity after the midterm elections.

In the long term, the improvement of ETF infrastructure and regulatory clarity lay the foundation for the next round of growth.

When market structure fundamentally changes, old valuation logic becomes invalid, and new pricing power is rebuilt. Stay rational and patient! Data sources: CoinDesk, CryptoSlate, Glassnode, CoinShares, Farside Investors, Strategy website, CME Group, Yahoo Finance