Former hedge fund manager Raoul Pal has once again caught the attention of the financial world with a sweeping prediction about the future of digital assets.
Writing on X, the Real Vision founder suggested that the global crypto user base could expand to four billion by 2030, with the market capitalisation of the sector reaching $100 trillion as early as 2032.
Source: X
Pal based his outlook on a comparison between the rise of the internet and the trajectory of cryptocurrency adoption.
Using the growth of crypto wallets as a benchmark against historical internet IP address data, he argued that digital assets are spreading at a faster pace than the web did in its formative years.
By Pal’s estimates, there were about 659 million crypto users worldwide at the end of 2024, reflecting average annual growth of 137% over nine years.
By contrast, the internet had approximately 187 million users by the end of 2000, growing at 76% annually.
Pal expects growth in crypto adoption to slow but remain significant, projecting one billion users by 2026 and four billion by 2030 — equal to nearly one in eight people on earth.
Alongside adoption, Pal outlined his belief that the total crypto market cap could soar to $100 trillion within the next decade.
He attributed this to two powerful drivers: “Debasement explains 90% of price action,” he wrote, while adding that “adoption explains 100% of outperformance vs debasement.”
In his view, these forces combined could completely reshape the global financial system.
Source: X
Despite the bullish tone, Pal’s numbers have drawn criticism.
Several X users argued that wallet counts exaggerate real adoption since new wallets can be created endlessly.
One commentator remarked that project founders can “open 10,000 wallets and spread coins to make it look like he has a community.”
Another admitted to creating a new wallet every six months for years, suggesting the statistics may be inflated.
Pal pushed back on these doubts, pointing out that internet adoption in the 1990s was measured in similar ways.
He noted,
“Everyone has multiple IP addresses too.”
He argued that while imperfect, the method still indicates broader growth.
Other research has offered more conservative projections.
Triple-A, a Singapore-based digital currency platform, estimated 560 million crypto users globally at the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, a report from Andreessen Horowitz in October 2024 suggested between 30 million and 60 million monthly active users when focusing on consistent activity rather than wallet numbers.
Even with these lower estimates, industry analysts agree the trend is upwards — with adoption spreading across emerging markets, institutions entering the space, and technology improvements easing user access.
The real debate lies not in whether crypto will grow, but how far and how fast it can reach the scale Pal envisions.
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