Bitcoin rises to $120,000. What is the most correct operation in this cycle?

Host: Alex, research partner of Mint Ventures

Guests: Colin, free trader, on-chain data researcher; on-chain nomad, professional on-chain investor

Recording time: 2025.7.17

Disclaimer: The content discussed in this podcast does not represent the views of the institutions where the guests are located, and the projects mentioned do not constitute any investment advice.

Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we clarify facts, explore reality, and find consensus in the WEB3 world through continuous questioning and in-depth thinking. Clarify the logic behind the hot spots for everyone, provide insights that penetrate the events themselves, and introduce multiple perspectives.

Alex: Today we have two guests, both of whom are old friends of ours. The first one is Colin, who is a familiar on-chain analyst who has dabbled in both US stocks and cryptocurrencies. The other one is Chain Nomad, who is also my friend. He previously participated in our episode on Meme and shared with us a lot of thoughts and insights on Meme. Please introduce yourselves to us again.

Colin: Hello, my name is Colin. My Twitter account is called Mr. Berg. I am very happy to be invited by Alex to come to the show again and express some of my own opinions. Thank you.

Chain Nomad: Hello, everyone, I am Chain Nomad. I entered the circle in 2023 and have been focusing on the primary market since then. The income of the primary market was basically replaced by Bitcoin in the first half of the bull market, and replaced by U in the second half. It's about this rhythm. In this round, basically all the hot spots in the primary market or some big hot spots in the market have been followed and participated by me. In this process, I have also summarized and learned some experiences and lessons. I look forward to sharing them with you today.

Judgment and response strategies for the current stage

Alex: Then let's enter the formal chat session today. First of all, the first question is closely related to each of our current investment operations, that is, what do you think about the current cycle stage? Now what do you think the current crypto bull market is in, whether it is for Bitcoin or other assets? Based on this judgment, what is your current strategy and position?

Colin: Okay. Personally, when defining the so-called Bitcoin cycle, I will mainly use the field I am more proficient in, that is, some indicators or signals in chain analysis, to define whether we are in the early, middle, or late stages of the cycle. I still remember that the first time I came to participate in the program was in mid-February this year. At that time, I talked about some of my views on this topic. Today happens to be a good time to review it. First of all, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, I think BTC is very close to the end of this cycle. The reason is that the signal that would appear at every top in history had already appeared at that time. I know that many people may not agree with this logic, because if you look at it according to the normal four-year cycle, the peak should be at the end of this year, around September to December. But I have also written an article explaining this before. If we go back to 2021, four years ago, the so-called first top actually appeared in April at that time-because there were two tops that year. Almost all the top signals occurred in April 2021, not the second top in November. In this current cycle, the same situation has actually occurred again. I dare not say that there will definitely be a second top now, or in the near future, but the current situation is basically the same as that year. In other words, we triggered the top signals of almost all the on-chain analysis that I monitor at the beginning of this year. At that time, it fell from a high of about 110,000 to 74,000 in March and April, and then rose to the current high. At the second peak in 2021, some signals also appeared. The signals at that time were quite special, because most of them had already been triggered at the first top. Including some divergences in the amount of capital inflows, vertical rises, trends that were neither too pullback nor too sideways, as well as AVIV overheating, huge concentrated realized profits, RUP divergences, etc. If we compare now with the second top in 2021, all these signals are now reappearing. Of course, each cycle is completely different. The biggest difference in this cycle is that there has been a structural change in the participants. Simply put, many institutions have come in. Many companies imitated MicroStrategy to make Bitcoin reserves, and even Ethereum's strategic reserves have begun to appear recently. If I define the current cycle stage from my own perspective based on on-chain analysis, I still tend to think that it has entered the end, and is currently rhyming with the second top trend in 2021.

Based on this premise, I will answer the second question, which is the current position and strategy. I mentioned when I came to the show before that my view on the whole year of 2025 is relatively conservative. Whether from the perspective of some conditions in the circle or the entire macro market, for example, Trump imposed tariffs after taking office and clamored to fire Powell, etc., in such an environment, the operation will be much more difficult than in 2024. In terms of positions, I now divide them into two parts: the first is the Crypto part. At the beginning of the year, when BTC reached 103,000, I had already cleared my positions and hedged with a 1x coin-based short order to receive an annualized return of about 7%-10% Funding Fee. Now the price has reached a new high, and has risen above the position where I escaped from the top. Some bottom signals are also beginning to appear slowly, but they have not yet fully formed. At present, my strategy is to adopt a short-selling plan with a lower leverage, and the leverage is expected to be controlled between 1.15-1.25 times. The other part is US stocks. I am more Buddhist about US stocks. I have already taken back a full position in April this year. I remember mentioning this matter when I was on the show in May this year. At present, there is no plan to change the position of this part. The above is my overall view at present.

Alex: Okay. Colin just reviewed his previous judgment logic for the current stage and also talked about his latest situation. Basically, he still maintains his previous judgment. Let me add a note here. The reason why we invited these two guests today is that their operating styles are completely different and the types of targets they focus on are also very different. The next speaker, the Chain Nomad, is more good at discovering primary opportunities, opportunities on the chain. Let's invite him to talk about it.

Chain Nomad: Okay, the host just introduced that my own trading style is more inclined to focus on emotions and the market. I will mainly share from the perspective of the primary level, because the sharing of the guest Colin just now is more professional in the secondary level, and I don’t have much experience to share on the secondary level. From the perspective of the primary level, I can make a big judgment: it is definitely not a primary bull market now. It has been about two years since I entered the market in 2023. I have experienced, for example, when the BTC ecosystem was speculating on inscriptions, or when Meme coins were speculating at the beginning of this year, it is obvious that the flow outside the market has entered this market. Not only is there speculation in the market, but there is also off-market funds flowing into the primary market. This feeling is very obvious. But now I think this market is relatively deserted, far from the feeling of a primary bull market. From the perspective of the secondary market, not only me, but many primary players, including those who speculate in altcoins, also have a common feeling: BTC and altcoins, or the primary market, are relatively separated in this cycle. BTC has risen alone, and sometimes altcoins or the primary market do not follow the rise of BTC at all. Therefore, this is how I analyze and judge the bull market in the primary market. Regarding positions, about 90% of my positions have been converted to USDT, leaving only 10% of BTC for long-term holding and immobilization. I don't plan to buy it back at this position. The information sources I received include traders who are very good at the second level, or some OGs in the past cryptocurrency circles. From the information I received, everyone has turned from taking a gamble to defending. My current state is the same.

Alex: As a very active first-level player, what is your current work status or daily time allocation?

Chain Nomad: This is still based on the market. I pay more attention to the liquidity on the chain. In the past week or two, the liquidity on the chain has warmed up a bit, so my own working hours have also increased accordingly. For example, when the chain was very quiet some time ago, I basically only spent one or two hours a day to check the information to see if there are any big opportunities worth participating in recently. For example, the Pump a few days ago, I paid attention to it and participated in it. But I chose to give up some other PVP opportunities on the chain. Because I think that the first level should pay attention to the input-output ratio, that is, the cost-effectiveness. Sometimes the market trend is not right, or the time is not right, you will lose money if you put more energy.

Alex: This is also the basic status of the top players around you, or the masters on the chain, right?

Chain Nomad: Yes, didn’t 0xsun say a very classic saying, "The main players don’t play garbage time" is similar to this meaning.

Changes in investment difficulty in this cycle

Alex: Got it, then let’s talk about the second question today. I know Colin is an investor who has experienced several rounds of crypto cycles. For you, do you think the difficulty of investing in this cycle is higher or lower than in the past few rounds? What is the reason behind it?

Colin: Okay. I personally think that if we look at the entire market as a comprehensive assessment, the difficulty has not changed much. Because making money in the financial market is originally a very difficult thing, especially when we want to earn excess returns, that is, Alpha. As we just talked about, I think the most special thing about BTC in this cycle is its independent upgrade, that is, its uniqueness. It seems that it is the only one rising in the entire market, even ETH is outdone. Another strange situation is that Trump was elected and brought a tariff war in 2025. These two things will have a great impact on anyone operating in the market. As the market gradually matures, many less mature targets, that is, those that can be hyped up simply by funds, will gradually be eliminated. Therefore, I am not too surprised by BTC's independent upgrade. As for the tariff war, many people will care, but I think if you are a long-term investor in BTC, then this matter is a noise. For example, if you are a holder and have held BTC since 2022, 2021, or even earlier, you will feel particularly satisfied in this cycle. Because in the past few cycles, you may hold BTC, but watch the altcoins in other people's hands rise dozens or hundreds of times, which will disturb your psychology. But if you are a holder today, and you have not sold at all in this round, you will feel very satisfied. For you, your difficulty may be lower. Because the BTC you hold has been rising, while other coins have not performed well, and are even falling. If you insist on talking about difficulty, the difficulty will definitely increase with the entry of institutions. Our opponents are no longer those old OGs or old whales, but those hedge institutions or quantitative funds that have been rolling in the traditional financial market for decades. Their entry has made the market more mature, and the maturity of the market has further attracted more institutions to participate. This is a cyclical process. The result of this process is that the volatility of BTC will become much lower, and the difficulty of hunting Alpha will increase. But as I just mentioned, if you just want to earn BTC's Beta, that is, simply buy and hold, then I think the difficulty of the current market will not be significantly increased for you.

Alex: I understand. In fact, our program this time is the second episode of the theme "My experience and lessons in this cycle". Last time, I invited two friends to talk about this topic. Their feedback was that this round was obviously more difficult. Colin's feedback was that it was okay, not obviously more difficult. We can compare these two answers. Colin's words contain a small hidden premise, that is, if you are a BTC holder, then you will find it not so difficult in this round, or even easier. Because most of the attention of funds in this round, including the improvement of fundamentals, is actually focused on BTC. But for many investors who pursue higher Alpha, in this cycle, especially in the first half, many people still pin their hopes on cottages, but the performance of cottages is not good. Then, please talk about this question again, what do you think has changed in the difficulty of this cycle compared to when you first came into contact with crypto assets in the last round?

Chain Nomad: I think this is a particularly good question, especially for first-level players. Sometimes when you are doing first-level, you will hear a lot of different voices: some people say that the first-level market has become more difficult, and some people will say how it compares with the past. At this time, a very important word is involved - bias. For primary players, bias is very fatal. If you look at it with bias, you will be far away from the opportunity to make money. Because in the primary market, you can always see those people on Twitter who are creating gods no matter what the market is like. Even in a volatile market, such as when BTC did not pull out a unilateral trend some time ago, there were still many people on Twitter who were deifying. Like Aoying, a popular secondary player some time ago, he also made good results in a volatile market. I also tracked some of his trading logic, or his own trading system. Not to mention the opportunity to play Meme some time ago, or play inscriptions earlier. You will find that at different stages, there will always be opportunities in the primary market that can make you earn many times alpha, and there will always be people who can seize these opportunities. Some time ago, I was in a small group and gave an example to the group members: the primary market is especially like a carriage, pulling a whole car of gold bricks to the sky. And we players are like citizens on the side of the road, picking up gold nuggets that fall from this carriage that ascends to the sky. These alpha opportunities, or memes, were initially covered by the cloth on the carriage. As it gradually ascended to the sky, the cloth slowly slipped off, the market value continued to increase, and the gold nuggets on the carriage continued to fall. And we, the players in the primary market, were picking up gold nuggets on the side. There will always be such a carriage passing by, and what we can do is to get as close to it as possible, as close to the market opportunities as possible. So I think whether it is a bull market or a bear market, no matter what stage it is, there will always be some good opportunities in the primary market that you can seize. I have been in the circle since 2023, and I have experienced some bull and bear conversions in the past two years. But I have always believed that there will be a steady stream of new opportunities in the primary market. I also have this view now, that the primary market is a market that can help people grow from 100,000 to 100 million.

Alex: When you just made an analogy, you mentioned that the opportunities in the primary market are like a carriage, which was initially covered with cloth. For players who want to seize the opportunity, most people cannot identify whether the carriage covered with cloth contains gold bricks or some worthless waste at the beginning. You also mentioned that in the past round of the primary market, there are many other opportunities such as inscriptions and memes. In terms of your physical sense, has the difficulty of approaching these carriages and identifying them and picking up gold nuggets changed?

Chain Nomad: I think this change should be viewed in conjunction with the narrative. For example, if the Heavenly Court hopes to requisition a batch of goods from the lower world, the number of carriages leading to the Heavenly Court will increase. Just like the BTC ecosystem or the meme ecosystem some time ago. When there is a narrative running out, its wealth-creating effect and opportunities will be more. It is always easier to pick up more gold nuggets when ten carriages pass by you than when only one carriage runs by. This goes back to the timing and trend we talked about in the last question, which is also more important in the primary market. When the trend comes, you have to spend more energy, focus more, and invest more efficiently in this matter to make more money. When there is no trend, make yourself more stable and cautious. Even if you don't pick up more gold nuggets, at least don't let the gold nuggets you have picked up scatter on the ground.

Alex: Let me briefly summarize your answer just now. First, the mentality is very optimistic and open, and you believe that primary opportunities always exist. Therefore, you must keep a constant eye on the market. Second, even if the form of these opportunities and the narrative behind them are constantly changing, you believe that the possibility of identifying it, approaching it, and profiting from it always exists. Even if it comes in various forms, it is still a chance for ordinary people to seize it. So you don't think negatively that it is more difficult now.

Chain Nomad: Yes, I think especially those who are in the primary market should not give themselves such psychological hints. What we need to distinguish is whether to let go or defend a wave, but no matter what, we must remain open to opportunities and reject prejudice. Prejudice is a taboo in the primary market. Once you look at the market with prejudice, the opportunity to make money will definitely stay away from you.

The most correct operation in this cycle

Alex: OK, let's talk about the third question. We say that this cycle has been going on for 23 years and it can be considered that it has not yet completely ended. So what is the most correct investment operation or strategy you have made in this cycle? Can you share your thinking logic and background at that time?

Chain Nomad: I have roughly summarized two major directions for the most correct operation and strategy in this round. The first one, in fact, I just mentioned it, I summarize it as the "leading strategy". Let's first say that there are narratives coming out, such as the BTC ecosystem, the Meme ecosystem, etc. In these sectors, we should participate in as many leading targets as possible, participate in those targets with strong consensus, and try to put our positions in them. For example, some of the leaders in the inscriptions, such as ordi, sats, or some leaders of new protocols, have higher multiples, liquidity, and market capitalization ceilings. When we speculated on Meme, some of the leading coins of platform coins and the leading coins of AI narrative concepts actually had the highest multiples, market capitalization, and liquidity. So in this round of the primary market, the more valuable or correct operation for me is to seize more opportunities of leaders and participate less in some second- and third-tier projects. Isn't there a very classic saying - the first-tier is iron, and the second-tier is changing. The second-tier is very changeable, but the leader that everyone has the most consensus on and is unanimously optimistic about in the market actually has greater potential. You can participate in some other new opportunities, but when this narrative starts to go up, I will continue to increase my position in the leading token with some of the gains I have made. When it reaches a satisfactory stage in my mind, I will cash out as a whole.

The second point is what a senior taught me when I participated in the primary market. I think it is very valuable, which is dynamic rebalancing. This is really important for first-level players. You can think of it as the first half and the second half of the bull market. When I participated in these first-level market opportunities in the first half of the bull market, whether it was the BTC chain, the Ethereum chain or the SOL chain, I would handle the income brought by the first level in stages. For example, every week or half a month, do a dynamic rebalancing and reconfigure my first-level positions. For example, I set it at the beginning that BTC should account for 50% of the total position, the first-level position should account for 30%, and the liquidity USDT should account for 20%. Through such staged rebalancing, the position structure can be healthier and the retracement can be smaller. In the second half, you can gradually reduce the BTC position, configure more positions into USDT, and the first-level position will also be smaller. In this process, your first-level income will be continuously converted into BTC and U, thereby avoiding large retracements due to drastic market fluctuations. So when trading in the primary market, you must do dynamic rebalancing. Because many times, you think the K-line is flying, how much floating profit, how much pocketing, in fact, are three things. Dynamic rebalancing can keep your position in the primary market healthy and make you more rational when making decisions.

Alex: I understand, in fact, we preset a discipline, through this discipline to manage some of our human weaknesses. Next, please let Colin talk about it.

Colin: I think I started to build BTC positions in batches at the very beginning of this cycle, probably from September to December 2023. At that time, I operated according to my own spot cycle system, that is, some on-chain signals. Although I didn't copy it at the bottom, because it might still be affected by market sentiment at the time, there were some fears and fears of operation. But I still invested funds in BTC at a later time based on the signals and my own trading plan. I have been holding this transaction from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. This transaction has brought me the greatest return in the past one to two years, because Bitcoin is a unique product in this cycle. If I have to say, I liquidated my Bitcoin at the beginning of the year. Although looking back now, I missed the rise from 103,000 to the present, but in fact, I carefully reviewed it and found that my income during this period was only the Funding Fee. Even if I did not liquidate at the beginning of the year, I might not be able to achieve better results now. The reason is that, as another guest just said, if we spend more effort to trade at the wrong time, we may not necessarily make more money, but may lose money. I agree with this point of view. My system and judgment told me at the end of last year that 2025 would be a difficult and hellish year. So I chose to liquidate at the time and switched to a strategy to earn Funding Fee, which actually helped me to adjust my mentality a lot. Otherwise, if I still held the position at that time, or even fully invested in BTC spot like before, I might make more bad operations due to the increased difficulty of the external environment. Therefore, for this transaction, although I have indeed missed the top of this increase, if I go back to the beginning of the year, I will still make the same choice, otherwise my mentality and operation may be deformed.

Another operation that I think is relatively good was in early April this year. At that time, the market caused a very serious panic because of tariffs. Not only the Bitcoin market, but also the US stock market had a similar situation. I observed a very interesting phenomenon at that time, which I can share with you here. Usually, when we look at the three major US stock indexes, their fluctuations are usually very stable, and they may rise or fall by 1-2% within a small range during the day. However, on the working days from the first week to the second week of April, the index fluctuations at the opening of the US stock market were so exaggerated that the market seemed to be broken. For example, the index may rise by 3% first, and then turn to a sharp drop, and the drop may reach 5%. Simply from the index itself, it can be felt that the market has excessive panic. So I took back all the US stock positions that I had cleared before. There was another interesting observation point at that time, that is, there is a national security fund in Taiwan, China, which will announce its entry to the public under certain circumstances. If you review the history, you will find that the time point when the national security fund announces its entry is almost always a relatively good position in the Taiwan stock market, and its historical winning rate is very high. What's interesting is that the time point it chooses not only corresponds to a good entry point for the Taiwan stock market, but also a good entry point for the US stock market. I don't know the specific reason, maybe they are really good. But at that time, in addition to observing the abnormal fluctuations of the index, I also saw this news, so I decided to take back the full position of US stocks on April 9. Later, it was indeed proved that I received a good low point, and the subsequent market has been rising all the way to the present. I think this is my best operation this year. Although it does not belong to crypto, this part is worth sharing. In the future, if you see similar situations again, such as very exaggerated fluctuations in the stock market index, you can observe whether the market has entered a stage of excessive panic. This is an extreme image that should not appear. Once it appears, you can pay attention to it.

Alex: Got it. I feel that the huge fluctuations in the stock market and the entry of the National Security Fund mentioned by Colin just now are all caused by the fact that emotions are already in chaos and prices are very deviated. This is not only in the stock market, but also in the bear market of the previous cycle, such as when Luna collapsed in May 2020 and when Ftx collapsed in November 2022, Ethereum may fall by 20% in one day. These are all times of extreme emotions. At that time, as long as the relative position is at a relatively low historical position, there will be good results in the long run.

Wrong operations and experience in this cycle

Alex: Then let's move on to the next question. So far in this cycle, what do you think is the most wrong mistake you have made in your investment? What is your summary and review?

Colin: Okay, I actually talked about this question with Alex briefly in my last show. I think the most painful experience in this cycle is my personal over-trust in Ethereum's second place. Although ETH is still the second place, I had already started to build a position in Bitcoin in the early and middle stages of the bull market. In the early and middle stages, I wanted to earn some Alpha through ETH. My logic at the time was: ETH and BTC are highly correlated, and ETH is more volatile. Since the bull market has just started, ETH should have more room to rise than BTC. So I exchanged some BTC spot for ETH, which is equivalent to going long on the ETH/BTC exchange rate. In hindsight, this operation was a complete failure. Although I did not lose money, I missed out on a large potential reward. If I remember correctly, in the first half of last year, the ETH/BTC exchange rate basically fluctuated around 0.05, and it has been going down since the big drop on August 5. At that time, I lost the potential reward, that is, the opportunity cost. At that time, I thought Ethereum was the second place, which was unmatched. Its market value was also very different from the third and fourth place. At that time, Bitcoin passed the so-called ETF, and Ethereum was also hyping this expectation, and even passed it later. I was a little too FOMO at the time, thinking that I wanted to replicate the beautiful trend of Bitcoin after passing the ETF, so Ethereum probably had a chance to have a similar trend. But the facts did not go as I wished. After the ETF was listed, it became a channel for the old funds to ship out. I think this lesson is something that everyone should recognize and keep in mind: in our current cryptocurrency market, except for Bitcoin, you really can't have too strong faith in any other currency. Faith is something like a double-edged sword. For example, if you believe in and hold a certain currency, you will make a lot of money, hundreds, thousands, or even tens of thousands of times. But because its odds are very good, it will inevitably lead to a low winning rate. This is a relationship of mutual growth and decline. If you encounter a trading opportunity today with high odds and high winning rate, then this opportunity will definitely have another problem: it occurs very rarely. It is impossible for all three conditions to be met at the same time. Another problem with belief is that it may cause your asset curve to have too large MDD (Max DrawDown), that is, the retracement is too large. If the MDD is too large, it is a big taboo in our trading field. Even if it surges back later, what if it doesn't? Because your winning rate is very low, once you fail, for example, your assets lose 80%, then you have to multiply it five times before you can get your money back. This is a lesson I learned myself. I think at the current stage of this market, except for Bitcoin, there is no other currency that you can really have a very strong belief in, and then buy and hold, and keep holding it, including Ethereum. In December last year, when Trump was elected, I cleared this batch of Ethereum at about 4,000 based on some events and data. At that time, I was actually very unwilling because it didn't even touch the previous high. At that time, I also thought that Trump's election would push Ethereum to a new high, but it didn't happen. After all, at that time, the signals and some data already supported my selling, so although I was unwilling, I still executed the sell. In hindsight, this operation was correct and made up for the opportunity cost of my previous losses.

Chain Nomad: This question is really paved with money, and behind each point is the experience of losing a lot of money. The first point I want to share is: Don't bet on the rise and fall when doing level one. Because the core of level one is to find some asymmetric opportunities, that is, those opportunities with high winning rate and high odds. If we bet on whether it will rise or fall in the future, or bet on what the banker will do in the process of judging opportunities, the higher the bet component, the lower the winning rate of your judgment of this opportunity. Looking back on my past experience of losing money, it is often because the bet component is too high, rather than based on my own trading logic or judgment. You are betting or guessing the future trend, which is often unreliable.

The second point is a very fatal problem for novice players: there is no strict stop loss, or there is no stop loss. This problem is not only reflected in the opening of positions, but also very critical when selling or taking profits. For example, when I was trading Trumpcoin, I used several accounts to participate in the transaction. Some of them were constantly selling, and some were set as more diamond accounts. One of the more diamond accounts rose about 20 times from the purchase to the high point, and the income was very considerable. But because the concept of stop loss or strict selling when the price falls below the point was not firm, or it was not well executed, the income had a huge retracement, which was really painful. Therefore, as a first-level trader, novices must pay attention to the problem of stop loss, not only cost stop loss, but also profit stop loss.

The third point is that the investment research is not thorough, which is also a very fatal problem. Sometimes you think you have done investment research, but you look back and find that it is actually very superficial and incomplete. For example, before you buy a target, have you made clear the reason for buying it? Have you decided how much position to buy? How long do you plan to hold it? What is your judgment on its expected return? Have you systematically browsed the information source of this project, the powerful traders, the KOL group you monitor, and the public information on Twitter? Or did you do sufficient research before selling, and did you repeat the steps just now? I think this is very critical. Sometimes, we think we have done investment research, but we are actually deceiving ourselves. Failure to do sufficient investment research will also affect the actions of buying and selling.

The above are the three most important points in my opinion. There are also some small points: for example, when buying at the bottom or covering a position, you must control your position, and don’t cover more when the price drops, which is also very fatal; don’t participate in transactions when doing other things, such as when people are shopping outside or playing games and see opportunities and participate, the transaction efficiency at this time is often very poor, and it is also particularly easy to lose money. These are probably the more painful experiences.

Alex: Okay, the sharing is very detailed and very good. Originally, our next question was, what is the most critical experience or investment insight you have gained in this round? Is there anything that you think can be reused in the next round of core take away? But in fact, the two of you have mentioned many similar insights in the previous answers. In addition to the part just mentioned, if you want to summarize your most important take away or insight in this round in one or two sentences, what would it be?

Colin: I think there is another point worth sharing, which is a phenomenon I saw in March last year. At that time, BTC rose all the way to 73,000 and 74,000, which was the first wave of the main uptrend. But if you compare the sentiment of the crypto market with that of the U.S. stock market, you will find a very special phenomenon: the U.S. stock market was actually sideways at that time, not so enthusiastic, not like when it really rose, it was going up steadily all the way. But the BTC market sentiment at that time was very hot. Another very special situation is that few people may have an impression that at that point in time, the expectation of interest rate cuts in the entire macro environment was actually suppressed quite severely. The U.S. stock market has responded to this incident, but the Bitcoin market has not responded at all. So I felt a little weird at the time. Therefore, in April, I actually ran a large part of my altcoin positions. Everyone knows the subsequent trend. Bitcoin fluctuated sideways from March to October, while altcoins chose to go out of a bad bear market trend during the same period.

In this observation, I would like to mention two points: the first is that we don’t have to focus only on the information or sentiment within the circle. We can try to compare the sentiment within the circle with the sentiment in other markets, such as the stock market, commodity market, or bond market. I think this is a pretty good observation angle. Another is that, assuming that we think the bull market is not over yet, but we want to take some protective measures, in addition to partially taking profits, we should first keep your Bitcoin in the target selection; secondly, eliminate some relatively weak targets. For example, if you originally configured five altcoins, you can first eliminate the weaker ones. We can prioritize the elimination of high-risk and weak ones. This is also a way to reduce the overall risk. The above two points are good observation angles in my opinion.

Chain Nomad: Actually, I have prepared a point that I think is very important for this question. If I only say one, it is that you must settle your own trading system. I think this is a very critical, or even the only critical issue to distinguish whether a first-level player can achieve A8 or even A9. In fact, I feel very deeply about this point. Whether it is myself or those powerful traders I observe, such as 0xsun, Dayu, Leng Jing, and Aoying, they all have their own very strong trading systems. You can feel their trading logic very clearly. When we see an opportunity, we often find some investment opportunities from emotions or logic, and then use our past trading habits to respond, to verify our previous trading logic and trading system, and finally lock in profits. This is probably the process. But this system or logic is very experience-based. For example, when I entered the circle in 2023, I had already observed 0xsun, Leng Jing, Laser Cat, James Monkey Brother, and Wang Xiaoer. Have they always been so powerful? No. At the beginning of 2023, Leng Jing Da Tu Gou was also very PVP, and it was also a grass-roots team. But why can they seize the big opportunities in Trump's coin, or the subsequent meme wave? Because they have already settled the system before. When liquidity comes and the water pours down, there are more opportunities, and they can better seize the opportunities and expand their victory. I think this is the biggest difference between A8 and A9's first-level traders and PVP first-level traders. If we don't have such experience in the past, is there any way to make up for it? I think there is. For example, taking the Pump coin as an example, its reaction time after opening is very short. What if you don't have a very solid trading system and can't react quickly? There is also a solution, that is, you can fully preset different scripts for the next time. If you think about various possibilities and make a plan, then you will be more prepared when you participate in the opening, and you will be more targeted. This can make up for the lack or imperfection of the trading system to a certain extent. I think it is also very simple to improve, that is, to fully review the market after each transaction. I also realized some time ago that writing daily reports is very important for first-level players. I have seen some first-level players, including the host Alex, have the habit of writing daily reports. In this process, you are actually honing your summary and review of events and trading actions. Those proven correct logics will remain in your heart, and those proven mistakes will also form lessons learned and remain in your mind, so I think both of these points are very important.

I also want to share a passage that I think is closely related to this topic. I saw it in an article before. There are four sentences in total. I think it is very classic: Risk, whether it is uncontrollable factors such as changes in the times, policies, and event shocks, is something that everyone has to face. The risks we have ourselves, such as facing high chasing, selling at a loss, hesitation, etc., are often exacerbated by the lack of systematic training as an individual. Whether you can make money actually depends on whether you have trained a conditioned reflex-shaped response mechanism. The biggest enemy of retail investors is not the market, but their own emotions and lack of training habits. I think these few sentences are also a good summary of this topic.

Alex: Very good, the first one is the continuous polishing and precipitation of personal trading systems. When the system is not perfect, at least you should have a complete trading plan in advance to supplement it.

Judgment on the alt season

Alex: Then let's talk about a problem that everyone is concerned about but has always been painful, that is, the altcoin problem. In this round of altcoins, even if there has been a rebound and some improvement in the past two days, it still underperforms BTC and ETH by a large margin. In your next cycle trading plan, do you still include the evaluation and preparation for the alt season? Do you still look forward to the alt season? Do you think it will have a large-scale market and a relatively good wealth effect? Of course, in addition to some secondary targets, including some altcoins smaller than Ethereum, the alt season also includes some opportunities on the chain that the chain wanderer teacher pays more attention to.

Chain wanderer: Okay, I will only talk about the on-chain part here, because I am not very familiar with the altcoins in the secondary market. I think the primary market has a very obvious cyclicality. You can think of it as "harvesting crops", which does require such a process. After a period of precipitation of the first-level players, the leeks in the market may grow taller, or the leeks grow stronger, and the liquidity is well precipitated. So when some narratives come out, whether it is inscriptions or Meme, leeks flock in, the liquidity of the market will improve, and then the bull market on the first-level market chain will also come out, attracting off-site traffic to join and push up the market. But after this round of harvesting of Meme not long ago, I think the leeks have been harvested almost, and it actually needs a process of recuperation, and then the "distant water" of the first-level market will flow again. So my attitude towards the next primary market is still cautious. But I have also observed a change in the meantime, that is, I can clearly feel that the primary market is more concerned about the dealer than before, and now it is more concerned about whether there is a dealer manipulating the market. For example, in the recent PK between the popular PUMP and BONK platforms, it is obvious that there is a dealer entering BONK, pulling the typical and attracting everyone to play in the market. So if you still want to participate in the first-level opportunities recently, you must follow the market makers and don’t play with those plates with high retail investor content. The lower the retail investor content, I think the potential of this plate may be greater. This is an obvious change I have observed.

Then I also have a question to ask Alex and Colin. Recently, everyone may have some illusions about Ethereum again. I have also seen many voices that Ethereum may also achieve a two-fold increase after the new high like BTC, which is about 10,000 points. I want to hear what the two teachers think.

Alex: Okay, this is a separate topic, and we will discuss it later. So back to what the chain wanderers said just now, now they are in a state of squatting for the opportunities on the first-level chain, and wait until the leeks have finished recuperating and a new narrative emerges before attacking. If you have to operate, you may relatively participate in more projects where the market makers have done something and have clear ideas; while those projects that are purely driven by consensus, community, and emotions will have greater risks at present. What does Colin think about the alt season?

Colin: I have two main points to share on the topic of the alt season. The first point is that we all come to this market to make money. As long as we can make money, no one cares whether there is an alt season or not. Even if there is no alt season, but you can make a lot of money, I believe everyone can accept it. So I think before discussing the alt season, we have to go back to a more fundamental issue - when you choose to buy or even operate altcoin contracts, you must first realize that altcoins are very volatile. The reason most retail investors want to buy altcoins is usually because it has the potential to rise more than Bitcoin. Of course, it will also fall more than Bitcoin when it falls. But I think no matter what your strategy is, you must realize one thing: every time you buy or open an order, the decisive factor is still its expected value. For example, like the lottery, you can make a lot of money if you win once, but the winning rate is very low. This is the relationship between odds and winning rate. If you want to implement the so-called buy and hold strategy on the asset of altcoin today, I think it is not OK, because its expected value should not be positive. Suppose you bought an altcoin in early 2024, and then it experienced a wave of sideways trading with Bitcoin, causing the altcoin to fall by 80%. Even if it rises 4 times later, you still lose money, and the cost still cannot be recovered. This is a very simple math problem. Regardless of whether the altcoin season will come or not, or whether you expect the altcoin season or not, I think this proposition itself is not essential enough. Back to the first principle of the market, if altcoins want to rise, they need capital inflows. If there is to be an altcoin season, it means that funds must flow into all the current altcoins in a large scale to be called a season. But with the current number of altcoins, it is very difficult for you to achieve the so-called general rise.

Next, let's talk about the second point. Some people may have noticed that in the first wave of the main uptrend in 2024, that is, at the beginning of the year, the altcoin market actually rose along with Bitcoin. But then it went through a relatively painful period, until November, when Trump was elected, there was another wave of altcoins rising, but this rise was very different from the one at the beginning of the year. At that time, the rise of altcoins was in the form of sector rotation. For example, DeFi rose today, platform coins rose tomorrow, and oracle rose the day after tomorrow, etc., which was very obvious. Today, a sector sprayed dozens of points, and another one changed two or three days later. This is no longer the overall general rise at the beginning of the year. I realized at that time: the election of a president who is considered to be crypto-friendly at least in performance, such a major event, brought Bitcoin to a height of more than 100,000, but the market of altcoins was presented by a round-up. I think this is unreasonable. It should have risen more violently, and the round-up means that there is not enough funds. We can imagine that there is a group of smart funds that use the profits after the rise of sector A to engage in sector B, and then sector C, so this round of rise will occur. Since I observed this phenomenon at that time, I have maintained a pessimistic attitude towards the subsequent altcoin market. Because under the influence of such a big event, there can only be a round of rises, and the direction favored by funds is already very obvious. After all, the entire year of 24 was the stage of Bitcoin, and at the end of the year, there was another round of rises. I personally feel that I have been very pessimistic about the altcoin season from that time to now. Recently, there has been some improvement. In fact, every time the altcoin market has improved, it is basically brought up by the sharp rise of Bitcoin or Ethereum. The key is not whether it has risen, but whether it can be maintained after the rise. The so-called maintenance does not necessarily have to continue to rise, but at least it must be supported at the original position. Suppose an altcoin rises by 80% and then slowly falls back. This is very painful for the holder, and it may be a process of negative expected value. So back to the first point, in essence, if you want to operate altcoins today, you must first realize one thing: you are playing a "timing" game. What you need to consider is not whether it can rise more than Bitcoin in the future, but when it falls, once the retracement is too large, even if it rises several times later, you may still not be able to return to the cost line. This situation happened from April to May last year. There were a group of friends of friends around me. At that time, many people felt that the altcoins had fallen almost enough, so they started to buy the bottom. But later many people couldn't help but cut their losses. So I think this experience needs to be shared with everyone, and you should realize that there is a lot of room for upward movement, and the maximum downward movement is 100%. But in fact, if you fall by 80%, you have to rise 5 times to get your money back. So it is called "timing". In other words, buying altcoins, in addition to buying at the right position, is equivalent to choosing the right time. The trading of altcoins is not just about betting on fluctuations, time is also a very critical factor.

Alex: I understand, it's very complete. Regarding the issue of the altcoin season, I actually talked about it with the other two guests in the last episode. At that time, I also shared the views within our team, and our current views have not changed from then: we are not optimistic. The conclusion is very simple. Even though altcoins have rebounded recently, we are still not optimistic about them, especially the sustainability of altcoins. The reason is very direct, that is, the fundamentals of altcoins are generally very poor. As Colin just said, in fact, this round of disillusionment with the valuation of altcoins is typical, and it is a round of changes. Around February and March 2024, the performance of altcoins was a blowout. Everyone felt like they were dreaming back to 2021. They asked about the target in the group every day. Today this one rose, tomorrow that one rose, and everyone was exploding. It felt like the money was going to be desperately sent out. After that round of bubble burst, when Colin just mentioned that Trump was elected in 2024, Bitcoin pulled up first, and altcoins also began to rise, but this round of following the rise was obviously insufficient and turned very hesitant. Altcoins were soon replaced by the craze of meme coins. Without liquidity, everyone is not enthusiastic about it. This round may be regarded as the third round of altcoin rebound in this cycle, but I personally feel that this round is weaker. For example, we have seen that Ethereum has risen by 22% in the past week, but its market value is far less than that of its Layer 1 and Layer 2 counterparts, most of which have risen by less than 22%, and have not risen more than Ethereum. This performance can only be said to be trying to follow the rise. Some altcoins that seem to have a relatively large increase are often because they have also fallen sharply in the past. For example, Algo and Story, which is an IP chain, have risen more than Ethereum and have risen by 30% and 40% recently. In fact, they have fallen more. Therefore, our team's current judgment on altcoins is still: the fundamentals are not good, the narrative is not good, and the valuation continues to shatter. It can also be understood that this is a manifestation of the market maturing and a process of investor maturity. From this perspective, it is actually quite reasonable.

About preparation for cross-circle investment

Alex: Next, we will move on to the last question originally planned for today, and then we can talk about Ethereum-related topics. The problem is that many people around us have this situation: many crypto investors and even practitioners currently believe that the opportunities in the industry are rapidly decreasing, so they are starting to look at some employment and investment opportunities outside the industry, such as US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and even A shares. A shares have actually performed well recently. Do you have any specific views on this matter, or have your own practices changed? Will you also consider some opportunities outside of crypto? We know that Colin is investing in US stocks. I remember that you seem to buy more indexes. I wonder if you have plans to start researching some individual US stocks? And as for the chain nomads, do you have any preparations in this regard?

Colin: Yes, I do invest in US stocks, mainly with indexes as the largest part. Regarding the question of whether there will be fewer and fewer opportunities in the crypto industry, I think, as we mentioned earlier, this market is gradually maturing. It is entering the vision of our society in various forms and through more channels. More and more people are beginning to see Bitcoin and even want to participate in it. The market value of BTC is indeed growing at a speed that everyone can see. This process is like the evolution of Bitcoin from a barbaric era to a modern technological society. The first thing is that the volatility of the Bitcoin market will be greatly reduced. At the same time, there will be various large institutional funds such as "crocodiles" and "sharks" from the traditional financial market. Whether it is an arbitrage opportunity or an opportunity for high-frequency trading, they will want to get a piece of the pie. Once they come in, the dividends will become less and less. This is actually like a game theory. When the opponent becomes stronger, the pie is gradually divided, and the dividends will of course become less and less. Many people are beginning to feel that the crypto market is becoming more and more difficult to do, and that it is not as pure as before. For example, the altcoin season has not been realized in this cycle. As Alex just said, the increase in Ethereum is actually not much different from the increase in some Layer 1 and Layer 2 altcoins under its ecosystem, and Ethereum is even slightly better. This can actually be seen from the perspective of the incremental funds of traditional financial institutions. If a large amount of funds flow into Crypto from the outside world, the first target they choose will definitely not be some old altcoins. At most, they are played for a while, and then they go to play something else. If you really want to invest money in a market for investment today, it is unlikely to go to assets other than Bitcoin. Let's talk about Ethereum. It now has an ETF and can be traded in the US market. Although it cannot be traded directly, at least there is an exclusive ETF product. So it is possible that it will have a relatively large increase, even higher than traditional altcoins, because if this round of bull market is dominated by institutional funds, then in addition to Bitcoin, the second target they can choose is of course Ethereum. This sentence makes people very FOMO, but I don't mean to say that I am very bullish on Ethereum now, because I still respect Bitcoin's top signal very much. What I want to say is: if the Bitcoin market continues to evolve in the future, there will be a situation where the strong will always be strong. Now Solana is almost going to pass the ETF. Although there is one that is not formal and relatively niche, it has also passed. If Solana has a complete ETF purchase channel like Ethereum in the future, I still believe that when external funds consider investment allocation, the first choice will be Bitcoin, the second is Ethereum, and there is no third one at present. This is my personal bias at present. Will there be fewer and fewer opportunities? From the perspective I just described, of course there will be. But if you want to express it more precisely, it should be said that it will become increasingly difficult to obtain excess returns in this market. If you are still a believer in Bitcoin and a holder, then as long as you hold Bitcoin firmly, as the OTC funds continue to flow in, they are actually helping you to carry the sedan chair and help you take over the market. You are actually the most reassuring type of person. But if you hope to earn excess returns through Bitcoin or even other currencies and beat the performance of Bitcoin, then the difficulty will definitely rise vertically. Because your opponents are a group of experienced traditional financial players who have been operating for decades. These people are alligators and sharks. If you want to be opponents with them, it will be very difficult. This is where the real difficulty lies. But then again, the Bitcoin market has been less than 20 years so far. Compared with traditional stock markets, foreign exchange, commodities, raw materials, etc., it is still a very new market. So the opportunities in the circle may decrease, but compared with other mature markets, it still has many opportunities and dividends still exist. You can imagine that when the Bitcoin market is more than a hundred years old, the stock market will be relatively mature compared to the stock market, and Bitcoin will still be a relatively young asset. Of course, as time goes by, the volatility will become smaller and smaller, and the opponents will become stronger and stronger, which is understandable. At this stage, it is less than 20 years old, and there are still many opportunities compared to other markets.

Chain Nomad: I think this question actually depends on the size of funds. The smaller the size of funds, the higher the growth efficiency of the currency circle. I also plan to make some configurations in the three directions of encryption, US stocks, and Hong Kong stocks in the future. There are mainly two considerations: the first is to reduce my own risks. After all, if the funds are concentrated in the currency circle, there will definitely be risks. The second is to expand the batting area of my own transactions, that is, I hope that when opportunities arise in the US or Hong Kong stocks in the future, I can also participate better.

Are you still bullish on Ethereum?

Alex: Finally, let's talk about the issue of Ethereum raised by the chain nomad just now. Ethereum's recent rebound is quite strong. It should have fallen below 1400 from the lowest point of this wave, and now it has risen to more than 3400. Recently, the bullish comments on Ethereum have become very frequent. In addition, listed companies are buying a large number of Ethereum, and the number of listed companies using Ethereum as reserves is increasing every day. Can the subsequent increase in Ethereum achieve a gap in the exchange rate of Bitcoin? Can it rise to a level of 8000 or even 10000? Let me first talk about my personal opinion.

First of all, I think the fundamentals of Ethereum have not improved much at present. This is the first point. It is different from Bitcoin. The fundamentals of Bitcoin in this round are significantly improved compared with the previous two cycles, including the expansion of legal channels and the consensus on its head non-sovereign asset electronic gold, which has been further strengthened at the institutional and national levels. There are more sovereign institutions buying, and state-level reserve funds are being established, although the number of reserve funds established is lower than our expectations last year. As for the purchase of Bitcoin by the U.S. federal reserve fund that we talked about last year, this matter has basically no shadow in this round of Trump's policy cycle, and there is no expected progress, but the margin is improving. I think it has risen to this stage, which is less than twice the increase in the previous round. I think it is still quite reasonable. But I think the fundamentals of Ethereum are worse than the previous cycle. Because in the previous cycle, Ethereum, as a smart contract platform, is itself a computer system, which can be understood as a platform that provides on-chain computing resources. The premise of the system's value is that there are enough applications and ecosystems running on it, and there is enough demand for the system's resources, so that its valuation can be supported. But in fact, all the public chains in this round, even including SOL, which has risen well in this round, have much worse applications than in the previous round. It's just that the transaction volume and activity of meme in this round are higher than in the previous round. This may be one of the reasons why SOL has a relatively good increase. After all, it is the main battlefield of meme. However, Ethereum's resource requirements and business data in all aspects are not as good as the previous round. In addition, there are many more Rollups in this round, and users and applications are diverted to the second layer in large numbers. After the second layer was upgraded in Cancun, the consumption of Ethereum resources was further weakened, so these are the main reasons why its fundamentals are not very good. Of course, a large part of the purchase funds came from US stocks and Wall Street, including after the ETF. Ethereum's surge this time was mainly from US stocks and Wall Street. But I think even if the funds come from the same source, their long-term views on Bitcoin and Ethereum are still different. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have been mentioned. It is electronic gold, and this positioning will not be shaken in this cycle. Ethereum is essentially a computer system, more like a technology company. Its fundamentals have not improved even when the price has risen. We see that Ethereum has risen so much in the past few days, and its average on-chain Gas price is still 1-2, which is very dry. It was not so low even in the bear market in 2022, but this is the norm for Ethereum this year. So I think this fundamental has long-term traction on the price. With such a fundamental background, it is difficult to expect it to rise so many times like Bitcoin. Because if it reaches 10,000, it means it has doubled, which is about the same as Bitcoin. If Ethereum reaches 10,000, Bitcoin cannot still be at the current 120,000. It is likely to rise to 140,000-150,000, which is equivalent to doubling both. But from the perspective of fundamental improvement, Ethereum is not as good as Bitcoin, so I think it is difficult for it to reach 10,000, and it is difficult to go out of the trend of double the previous round of market. But it does not mean that I am not optimistic about Ethereum's future rise. The main driving force for Ethereum's rise is still the so-called flywheel of funds of the coin-share company. The reason why it can rise so much is that the flywheel of the coin-share company with Ethereum reserves as the theme is still turning. The landmark event that this flywheel can turn is that many people originally believed that only recognized large companies like MicroStrategy could raise enough money from the secondary market to issue additional shares, and then buy Bitcoin to realize this cycle. This cycle has been verified and run through many rounds. Many people did not see that Ethereum's reserve company could also realize such a flywheel at first. At present, this flywheel seems to have run through from late June to mid-July. Projects represented by SharpLink (code name: Sbet) can raise hundreds of millions of dollars every week, and these hundreds of millions of dollars can also be used to buy Ethereum. After the flywheel starts to turn, Ethereum will rise, and this company will continue to rise, forming a positive cycle of wealth effect. The purchase funds from the United States, including many retail investors, are also "stupid money". As long as they find that the price has risen, they will think that the strategy is good and the company is good, and they will further buy and provide funds to these companies to buy Ethereum. This flywheel is currently turning. As for where the positive cycle of prices can end, it is not clear at present. But I personally think that if you want to rely on this flywheel to rise to 8,000 or 10,000, I think it is relatively difficult. However, Ethereum also has some expectations for fundamental improvements. At present, it can only be called expectations. In fact, Vitalik talked about it more than a month ago that Ethereum's important goal this year is to achieve a tenfold expansion of performance, and also gave a clear time node before the end of this year. I think the overall depression of applications is a problem of all public chains, and one company cannot change it. But if it can achieve a tenfold performance expansion, it can at least win back the market share that was previously taken away by SOL, BNB Chain, and some high-performance chains, including some market share on the second layer. It can win back some users, transaction volume, and developers, which is definitely good for stabilizing the overall valuation. Based on this point, I switched part of my Bitcoin position to Ethereum about a month ago, but not a lot. At that time, I was worried about the fundamentals, and I didn't expect Ethereum to rise at all. I might have guessed that it would rise, but I didn't expect it to be in this form and for this reason. This is my current general view of Ethereum.

Colin: I think Alex's description and research on the fundamentals of Ethereum have been shared with you in great detail. I don't have as much detail about the fundamentals of Ethereum as Alex, but I think there is an angle for you to think about. As Alex just mentioned, companies like SharpLink have been buying and buying recently. If I remember correctly, its current holdings should be around 300,000. I think this purchase volume is already exaggerated. He has been raising funds, trying to imitate MicroStrategy. But the reason why that method has a strong effect on Bitcoin, and even more and more companies are imitating MicroStrategy and using BTC as their own company reserves, is that Bitcoin is limited. I think this is very important. Because it is limited. Suppose there are more and more companies like MicroStrategy, and they will not sell it after buying it, and they will keep it there for a long time until they are forced to sell it. Once this is done, it is equivalent to locking up the only part of the supply in the market. It is of course a good thing for Bitcoin, because the supply is reduced, which is naturally good news for the price. But Ethereum is not. Ethereum has a so-called evaporation mechanism, and it has an inflation rate. I think this matter itself should return to the fundamentals that Alex just mentioned. If Ethereum itself does not have a very novel and revolutionary application today, and if its gas fee remains at that low level, then Ethereum will continue to increase and increase. In fact, even if these companies keep buying, they cannot raise unlimited money to buy all the Ethereum on the market, and then make the market unable to buy Ethereum. This situation will not happen, because Ethereum will continue to increase, unlike Bitcoin. So I think the limited and unlimited things, whether these companies are doing so-called treasury reserves or strategic reserves, actually have obvious differences in their effects.

Back to the question just now, I think 10,000 is a bit too far away from the current price. I personally don't call the price, because first, it's too far. It's only around 3,400 now, and we want to see 10,000 unless we have a very clear valuation model or a very clear reason. We must at least evaluate the amount of funds flowing in, or have data support from some other aspects. But if it is simply because of some news, or because everyone is very optimistic and is buying Ethereum, it may reach 10,000. I think this cannot be quantified, the basis is not enough, and it can't convince me. I don't accept the voices in the market that call for 10,000. As long as this asset rises, there will be people who shout higher and higher. I think it is important for every market participant not to be carried away by emotions when judging the rise of Ethereum. Has the fact that it originally existed disappeared now? Or has there been any new fact? This goes back to the fundamentals mentioned by Alex just now. Its gas fee is still as low, does it mean that it has not seen some revolutionary development or new inventions on the chain so far, which gives it a reason to burn more ETH? If not, then this wave of rise is completely a simple supply and demand principle: there are many buyers and few sellers, so those companies continue to buy, especially SharpLink, which has bought at an incredible speed. It has bought 300,000 in just a few weeks. If this is really the reason for the rise, then there is no fundamental logic behind it. We can use a more exaggerated description to say that this may be a bubble. Of course, the bubble may not necessarily burst, but at least it is not a completely healthy rise. It is not because of the improvement of fundamentals that the value increases, but the price increases. If the value does not move, it is a bubble. The probability of a bubble bursting is always higher than the probability of a decline during a healthy rise. So I think for us, especially if you haven't reduced your Ethereum position, or if you see Ethereum rising all the time, and some people are calling for 8,000 or 10,000, you should be especially careful. It's not that it won't rise in the future, and I agree that we can't accurately assess how much it can rise now. But FOMO or emotions can never be a reason to buy. I think this is something everyone should remind themselves of, including myself. In fact, I was also tempted to buy when I saw Ethereum rise, but the discipline is here. You can't regret missing the rise of Ethereum and then buy impulsively. I think this is all noise and will not increase your trading expectations. I won't make trading decisions based on this emotion.

Alex: Let me add one more small point. In fact, I think it's reasonable for Ethereum to rise to 4,000 or 5,000. We know that the highest point of Ethereum in the last round was about 4,600 or 4,700. If it rises to 4,000 or 5,000, it will return to the high point of the last round. The highest point of Bitcoin in the last round was 69,000, and now it has reached a new high of about 120,000. We just said that the fundamentals of Ethereum in this round are inferior to those in the previous round, while Bitcoin is better than those in the previous round. So it is reasonable for Bitcoin to hit a new high, and it is also reasonable for Ethereum to be slightly higher than the previous round. Because the greater driving force for Ethereum to rise from 1,400 to more than 3,000 in this round is not the fundamentals, but the repair of valuation. There are several core points behind the repair of valuation: the first is these institutions represented by SharpLink, which is backed by the founder of Consensus, the co-founder of Ethereum, who formed such a consortium to buy Ethereum. Another point was mentioned by a former colleague at our internal track meeting this morning. He said that when SharpLink was first established, the stock price rose from a few dollars to more than 100, then fell to 30 or 40, and finally fell back to a few dollars, going up and down all the way, and going sideways for a while. But in late June, they started to raise funds, although the amount was not large at the beginning, only 20 to 30 million US dollars, and the premium was not high at that time, unlike now when they can raise hundreds of millions a week. The person who broke this situation was Tom Lee, a very influential figure on Wall Street. In June, he became the chairman of Bitmine, an important Ethereum purchaser. He has always been optimistic about Ethereum and has been bullish on Ethereum this year. Because he is an influential representative of Wall Street and served as the chairman of a company that focuses on hoarding Ethereum, this iconic event ignited the expectation of Wall Street funds and US retail investors to revalue Ethereum. So ETH rose from more than 1,000 and more than 2,000 to more than 3,000. This is the cause and effect and background. If there was no Tom Lee, SharpLink's flywheel might not be able to turn, and the stock price might still be hovering around more than ten dollars. There are many preconditions for this rise. Our understanding of this matter can actually help us consider other investment opportunities. Now I see that many people are also saying that the flywheel of Ethereum has started to turn and Bitcoin has run smoothly, so can we layout the flywheel of other cryptocurrencies? For example, can we buy those who hoard SOL? Can we buy those who hoard hype? In the past two days, there have been more and more listed companies hoarding BNB. Are these opportunities? Then we have to see whether these tokens have the prerequisites for a flywheel like Ethereum to start. I think the first premise has just been mentioned: Do these listed companies have the ability to raise funds in the secondary market very smoothly? Can they raise tens of millions or even hundreds of millions to buy coins? At present, there are not many companies like SOL and Hype that raise large amounts of funds from the market to buy coins. They do not have such strong financing capabilities. They are more likely to raise funds through private placements or targeted issuances, rather than buying from the secondary market with sufficient liquidity. The second point is whether these assets have a sufficiently influential figure on Wall Street like Tom Lee to ignite their revaluation of the value of this asset? We must realize that Ethereum fell from more than 1,000 or 2,000 US dollars and then rose back. But tokens like BNB, SOL, and Hype are currently at relatively high prices and are not oversold. So can they spray again at high prices? I think this difficulty is far greater than the valuation repair logic of Ethereum. So when we talk about this issue, we need to specifically analyze whether these assets have the prerequisites for Ethereum's flywheel to start. At the same time, we should also pay attention to their current price, which is also different from Ethereum. You can hear that we have made a judgment on the investment opportunities of derivative coin stocks.