Is Altcoin Season on the Horizon?

Bitcoin’s commanding influence over the global $4 trillion cryptocurrency market may be softening, but the emergence of a true, sustained altcoin season remains uncertain.

According to Adrian Fritz, head of research at Swiss asset manager 21Shares, the recent surge in altcoin prices does not yet guarantee a full shift away from Bitcoin’s dominance.

As of Friday, Bitcoin maintained a market dominance of roughly 61%, representing $2.3 trillion of total crypto market capitalization, according to CoinGecko.

This figure was a slight decline from the recent high of 65.5% last month, while it still signals a significant control over the market.

Fritz speculated that for a genuine altcoin season to begin, there first must be a reversal in the Bitcoin dominance, a threshold that has not been reached.

Ethereum, XRP, and Meme Coins Rallies, but Bitcoin ETF Locks In Investors

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s dominance coincided with strong performances from major altcoins; Ethereum has jump 20% to $3,600, while XRP has surged 23% to $3.46 over the past week, with the latter hitting a record high.

Memecoin, including the Solana-based Bon and Ethereum-based Floki, have meanwhile soared over 45% each.

Nearly 60% of Myriad Markets users expect Ethereum to reach a record high this year, highlighting growing investor confidence in leading altcoins.

Traditionally, altcoin often gains momentum after Bitcoin peaks, signaling trader's pivot towards a more volative assets as the bull market matures.

But with investors also Bitcoin ETF, it locks investors to the Bitcoin market making it harder for the altcoin season to take off compared to previous cycles.

The Altcoin Season Is Near, But Not Here Yet

But experts believe there is still hope for an altcoin rally, given how the upcoming macroeconomic shifts could serve as a catalyst for altcoin momentum.

Fritz highlighted that potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year could bring fresh liquidity into the market, possibly kickstarting a bona fide altcoin season. Until then, he characterizes current market action as “a bit of euphoria.”

On the regulatory front, impending crypto legislation in the U.S. is prompting investors to position for potential regulatory tailwinds.

Industry observers, including Maelstrom CIO Akshat Vaidya, say there are “early signals” of an altcoin season, but broader confirmation is lacking.

CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 cryptocurrencies over the past 90 days, the index recently touched 53 (with 100 indicating a confirmed altcoin season), before falling back to 43—demonstrating that while momentum is building, a true altcoin surge has not yet taken hold.