Opinion: The absence of an extreme surge in Bitcoin at the end of the year suggests that a sharp drop is unlikely in the first quarter.

In an interview with CNBC, Anthony Pompliano stated that the lack of a frenzied price surge for Bitcoin at the end of the year could be a catalyst to prevent a major crash in the first quarter of next year. He pointed out that given the current significant compression of Bitcoin's volatility, the possibility of a 70% or 80% retracement is extremely low. Pompliano stated that although Bitcoin has not reached the $250,000 target expected by some investors, its 100% increase in two years and nearly 300% increase in three years still demonstrate its strong performance in the financial markets. He added that while the reduced volatility may disappoint holders who value upside potential, it also provides downside safety, reducing the probability of a large-scale pullback. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $87,436, down 7.39% from the beginning of the year. Furthermore, Peter Brandt predicts that Bitcoin may fall to $60,000 in the third quarter of 2026, while Jurrien Timmer, Global Director of Macro Research at Fidelity, believes that the price of Bitcoin could drop to $65,000 in 2026.