Bitcoin News: Bitcoin Could See a “Dramatic” Surge if It Defies Its Four-Year Cycle, According to Peter Brandt

Key Takeaways:Veteran trader Peter Brandt says Bitcoin (BTC, $121,704) could experience a “dramatic” upside breakout if it breaks away from its historical four-year cycle.Based on previous cycles, Bitcoin’s current bull phase could have already peaked this week if history repeats.Brandt cautions that cycles eventually change, and if BTC deviates this time, prices could surge beyond $150,000 — possibly up to $185,000.The four-year cycle debate intensifies as institutional adoption, ETFs, and macro liquidity shift the market’s structure.Other analysts, including Rekt Capital and Arthur Hayes, also forecast potential highs between $140,000 and $250,000 in the coming months.Bitcoin Nears Potential Cycle Peak — or Its Most Explosive Rally YetAccording to Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with over four decades of market experience, Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point that could determine whether its historical four-year cycle continues — or ends with a breakout to unprecedented highs.“It is reasonable to expect a bull market high any day now,” Brandt told Cointelegraph, citing Bitcoin’s cyclical behavior across three prior market cycles.Brandt noted that while each cycle’s duration varies, one pattern has remained consistent: the distance from cycle low to halving equals the distance from halving to the peak.Sunday Marked a Critical Turning PointBitcoin hit its current cycle low on Nov. 9, 2022, exactly 533 days before the April 20, 2024 halving.If that symmetry holds, Brandt said, Bitcoin’s peak would have occurred this week — a timeframe that coincides with BTC hitting a new all-time high above $126,100 on Monday.“Add 533 days to April 20, 2024, and bingo — it is this week,” Brandt said.“However, trends that violate the prevailing cyclic nature of markets are typically the most dramatic.”If Bitcoin diverges from the established pattern, Brandt predicts a massive extension of the bull market, potentially pushing prices well above $150,000 and even toward $185,000.Cycles Don’t Last Forever — and the Market Is EvolvingBrandt acknowledged that market structures evolve, particularly as institutional adoption and financial products like Bitcoin ETFs reshape market behavior.“Sooner or later, cycles change,” he said. “But betting against a cycle that has a perfect three-for-three record should not be done with reckless abandon.”Brandt remains 50/50 on whether Bitcoin tops soon or continues its upward trajectory, but maintains a bullish bias for a potential counter-cyclical move.Four-Year Cycle Debate IntensifiesThe discussion around Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle has grown louder as institutional players, macro liquidity, and ETF inflows redefine market dynamics.Analyst Rekt Capital previously projected that if the current cycle mirrors 2020’s structure, Bitcoin could peak in October 2025 — suggesting more room for upside.“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt Capital said earlier this year.Meanwhile, Gemini’s Saad Ahmed noted that cyclical behavior persists due to human emotion and overextension, even if timing shifts.Long-Term Forecasts Remain BullishDespite cycle concerns, several leading analysts maintain bullish long-term price targets:Economist Timothy Peterson estimates a 50% chance of Bitcoin ending this month above $140,000, based on decade-long simulations.Arthur Hayes (BitMEX) and Joe Burnett (Unchained) expect BTC to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025, driven by expanding fiat liquidity and institutional flows.“If Bitcoin breaks free from its historical rhythm, the next move could be its most explosive yet,” Brandt concluded.Market SnapshotAt the time of writing, Bitcoin trades near $121,700, down slightly from its $126,000 high earlier in the week, as traders weigh whether the top is in — or whether a new phase of price discovery is about to begin.