Fed meeting minutes: Some data do not show a sharp deterioration in the labor market

The Federal Reserve meeting minutes mentioned that, during their discussion of the labor market, participants noted that job growth had slowed and the unemployment rate had risen slightly. Participants believed that the low level of job growth estimated in recent months likely reflected a decline in both labor supply and demand growth. Participants cited declining net immigration or changes in the labor force participation rate as factors weakening labor supply, while the impact of moderate economic growth or high uncertainty on business hiring decisions could have dampened labor demand. In this context, participants cited a range of other indicators as helpful in assessing labor market conditions, including the unemployment rate, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons, wage growth, the share of unemployed individuals finding jobs, the voluntary quits rate among employed workers, and the layoff rate. Participants generally agreed that the latest readings of these indicators did not indicate a sharp deterioration in labor market conditions. However, a few participants believed that recently released labor market data (including revisions to previous data and the preliminary estimate of the non-farm payroll benchmark revision) suggested that labor market slack may have persisted longer than previously reported. (Jinshi)