New York Fed: Concerns about labor market conditions intensified in September, inflation expectations rose slightly

A report released Tuesday by the New York Federal Reserve showed that Americans grew more concerned about the future of the job market in September and raised their forecasts for the near-term path of inflation. The bank's latest consumer expectations survey showed that as the perceived probability of job loss increased, respondents increased their expectations that the overall unemployment rate this year would be higher than in August. However, respondents also believed that if an unexpected job loss occurred, the chances of finding a new job would be greater within the next three months. The bank said that concerns about the future of the job market came as American households became more optimistic about their current financial situation and "slightly" lowered their expectations for the year ahead. As of September, households reported a reduction in their expectations for future spending due to mixed views on future income and income levels. Meanwhile, the September report found that one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in August, while expectations for inflation over the next three years remained stable at 3%. Five-year inflation expectations also rose to 3% in September from 2.9% the previous month. The report also noted that expectations for food prices over the next year rose to their highest level since March 2023. (Jinshi)