Focus of the Fed's June meeting minutes: The threshold for rate cuts has dropped

Odaily Planet Daily News The focus of the Fed's June meeting minutes is as follows: 1. How much hope is there for a rate cut in July: How much support will Waller and Bowman, who were appointed by Trump 1.0, get? Both said they would consider cutting interest rates at the July meeting, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be short-lived. 2. The wait-and-see period ends in the summer, and interest rates may be cut in September: The minutes may suggest that "the trajectory of interest rates will depend on the data released in June, July, and August," and the "wait-and-see" period may end in late summer. The minutes may indicate that the committee expects to get the data needed to make a rate cut decision before the end of the summer. If the situation is as expected, this will strengthen market expectations for a rate cut in September. 3. The threshold for rate cuts has dropped: The Fed's June meeting minutes may read more dovish. Powell tended to use neutral language at the June meeting, but the minutes can better reflect what Powell did not explicitly say: the threshold for rate cuts is falling. 4. Clues to internal disagreement: In June, 7 of the 19 officials thought no rate cuts were needed this year, 2 expected one, 8 expected two, and 2 expected three. Analysts will be looking for clues to the cause of this disagreement. What supports the view of 7 Fed officials that there will be no rate cuts at all in 2025. 5. Dual mandate concerns: The Fed's economic forecasts previously showed that the pace of price increases will accelerate for the rest of this year, but in 2026, even if interest rates are expected to fall, the pace of price increases will fall again. Also pay attention to whether there are serious concerns about the strength of the job market. (Jinshi)