Polymarket's probability of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by April 30th has dropped to 18%, a 17% decrease in the last 24 hours.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of a permanent peace agreement between the US and Iran by April 30th has dropped significantly on Polymarket, falling 17% in the past 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of contracts related to this event has exceeded $35 million. The contract rules state that if Iran and the US reach a permanent peace agreement by the specified date (11:59 PM Eastern Time), the market will mark it as "yes"; otherwise, it will mark it as "no." A permanent peace agreement is defined as any agreement that explicitly states that military hostilities between the US and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses similar wording to explicitly state that military hostilities between the US and Iran will permanently end. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or do not contain a final agreement that permanently ends military hostilities between the US and Iran (e.g., a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026) do not qualify. The market's primary source of information is official information from the US and Iranian governments; however, other credible reports can also be consulted. Tensions escalated sharply ahead of the expiration of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, with Iran initially refusing to attend the Islamabad negotiations and accusing the US of obstructing a substantive agreement. US President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire at Pakistan's request, but threatened to resume bombing Iran once the deadline expired, while maintaining the naval blockade and expanding sanctions against Iran. US Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Pakistan. Iran has now blocked the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz and publicly displayed ballistic missiles in Tehran, declaring it fully prepared for a renewed conflict. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.