US President Trump stated: "We will close the Strait of Hormuz. This will take some time, but clearing the strait won't take too long. The talks with Iran ended 'very amicably,' and NATO is now willing to help maintain security in the Strait of Hormuz. We believe many countries will help us in this regard, and we are also deploying more conventional minesweepers. As far as I know, the UK and other countries are also sending minesweepers." (Jin Shi)

US President Donald Trump issued a new threat against Iran, saying, "At the appropriate time, we will be fully 'ready,' and our military will finish off the remaining Iranian forces." (Xinhua)

With the next Bitcoin halving (expected in 2028) approaching, mining companies are facing a more severe operating environment than in 2024. The block reward will further decrease from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC, while rising energy costs, record-high network hashrate, and tightening capital are further narrowing profit margins. Data shows that mining companies have already entered a phase of deleveraging and cash flow optimization: MARA Holdings sold over 15,000 BTC in March, Riot Platforms sold over 3,700 BTC in the first quarter, Cango sold 2,000 BTC to repay debt, and Bitdeer reduced its BTC holdings to zero in February. Industry insiders point out that miners are shifting from "simple hashrate competition" to "capital and energy management capabilities competition." GoMining CEO Mark Zalan stated that "capital discipline is more important than hashrate expansion"; Cango also stated that operators with large-scale and diversified energy layouts will have a greater survival advantage in the future. Meanwhile, mining companies are restructuring their business models, shifting from single-block reward revenue to a "power + computing infrastructure" model, including participation in grid peak shaving, waste heat utilization, and fulfilling AI computing power demands, among other diversified revenue streams. Furthermore, a clearer regulatory environment is also changing capital flows. The gradual implementation of relevant compliance frameworks in the US and Europe (such as MiCA), coupled with the improvement of ETFs, derivatives, and settlement systems, is driving institutional funds to favor mining companies with long-term power lock-up capabilities and data center infrastructure. Analysts believe that compared to the 2024 cycle, which relied on rising cryptocurrency prices to drive profits, the 2028 halving cycle may favor mining companies with strong asset-liability management, energy security, and comprehensive computing power operation capabilities. (Cointelegraph)

Bitcoin prices plummeted due to the escalating geopolitical tensions. Following US President Trump's announcement of a maritime blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, BTC briefly fell to around $70,900, a 24-hour drop of approximately 2.5%. This followed comments from US Vice President J. D. Vance that US-Iran negotiations had failed to reach an agreement on extending the ceasefire, leading to a cautious market sentiment. Bitcoin prices quickly retreated from above $73,000, which had held for most of Saturday, to around $71,500, and further declined after the blockade announcement. Analysts believe that the changing situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy transport route, has significantly exacerbated market risk aversion, putting pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. (CoinDesk)

Garrett Jin, an agent for the 'BTC OG Insider Whale,' expressed skepticism about the prospects of a ceasefire, describing it as a 'sugar-coated poison.' According to BlockBeats, Jin argued that the market is operating under the assumption that a brief ceasefire could lead to lasting peace. However, he believes the likelihood of this outcome is less than 10%. Jin's reasoning is based on the incompatibility between the conditions proposed by Iran and the demands of the United States. He noted that no ceasefire terms have been executed within 24 hours, and historically, conflicts of this magnitude have never been resolved through a two-week pause. Jin suggests that the actual probability of a successful ceasefire is even lower than 10%.

Digital asset financial services company Tok-Edge announced the launch of a crypto hedge fund for institutional investors, aiming to raise $100 million in its first round of funding by 2026. Tok-Edge, which had previously maintained a low profile, reportedly aims to build a compliant crypto asset allocation infrastructure for institutions. The fund's initial size is $21 million, with traditional finance veteran Marcus Meijer and his investment consortium as investors, the latter planning to provide $10 million as a cornerstone investor. (Benzinga)

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, whales have set 10 major targets first and their short positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum have already generated a floating profit of $3.21 million: 1. BTC short position: 2567.49 coins, opening price $71554.61, floating profit $1.185 million; 2. ETH short position: 38465.22 coins, opening price $2248.74, floating profit $2.028 million.

The probability of WTI crude oil reaching $110 by April 2026 has significantly increased on Polymarket, now standing at 67%, with a 13% rise in the last hour and a 20% increase over 24 hours. According to Odaily, the total trading volume for this event contract has surpassed $24 million. The contract stipulates that if the highest price of any one-minute candlestick for WTI crude oil futures during April 2026 equals or exceeds the listed price, the market will be deemed a 'yes'; otherwise, it will be a 'no'. Previously, the March WTI crude oil price prediction contract required the official settlement price of the active month contract on any trading day at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to meet or exceed the listed price by the last trading day of March 2026 for a 'yes' outcome. U.S. President Donald Trump announced today that the U.S. Navy, the world's most powerful naval force, will begin blocking any vessels attempting to enter or exit the Strait of Hormuz. He also ordered the Navy to search and intercept any ships that have paid transit fees to Iran in international waters. Those who have paid such fees will not be allowed safe passage on the high seas, and efforts will begin to destroy Iranian mines in the strait. Trump warned that any Iranian who fires upon peaceful vessels will face severe consequences. He stated that Iran knows how to end the war that has devastated their country, noting the loss of their navy, air force, and defense systems, as well as the deaths of leaders including Khamenei, all due to their nuclear ambitions. The blockade is set to begin with other countries joining in, ensuring Iran does not profit from illegal extortion. Iran seeks money and, more importantly, nuclear weapons.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Polymarket's prediction that "WTI crude oil will rise to $110 in April 2026" has increased significantly, now reaching 67%, a 13% increase in 1 hour and a 20% increase in 24 hours. As of now, the total trading volume of Polymarket's "WTI crude oil April 2026 price" event contract has exceeded $24 million. The rules for this event contract are: if the "highest price" of any 1-minute candlestick chart for the active month of WTI crude oil futures during April 2026 is equal to or higher than the listing price, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no." Previously, the rules for the WTI crude oil March price prediction event contract were: if the official settlement price of the current active month (near-month) of the CME crude oil futures contract on any trading day is equal to or higher than the listing price up to the last trading day of March 2026, the market will determine it as "yes"; otherwise, the market will determine it as "no." Trump tweeted today: "Effective immediately, the U.S. Navy, the most powerful navy in the world, will begin a blockade of any ship attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. I also order the U.S. Navy to search for and intercept every ship in international waters that has paid 'transit fees' to Iran. Anyone who has paid such illegal transit fees will not be allowed safe passage on the high seas, and we will begin destroying the mines Iran has laid in the Strait. Any Iranian that dares to fire on peaceful vessels will be blown to bits! Iran knows better than anyone how to end the war that has destroyed their country. Their navy is gone, their air force is gone, their air defenses and radar systems are useless, Khamenei and most of their leaders are dead—all because of their ambition for nuclear weapons. The blockade is about to begin, and other countries will join in. We will not allow Iran to profit from this illegal extortion. They want money, but more importantly, they want nuclear weapons." Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

European banks and corporations have progressed from educational initiatives to selecting partners for stablecoin rollouts over the past 18 months, according to Taurus co-founder Lamine Brahimi. According to NS3.AI, Brahimi noted that the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation has facilitated this shift by replacing fragmented national rules with a unified framework. Some companies with board-level approval are preparing to launch their stablecoin projects. Konstantin Vasilenko highlighted a significant increase in USDC volume on Paybis within the European Union, rising approximately 109% between October 2025 and March 2026. This surge is attributed to growing demand for stablecoins in settlement and treasury operations.

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From the threat of a "Stone Age" conflict to the swift implementation of a two-week ceasefire, the conflict surrounding Iran has undergone a dramatic shift in a short period. On the surface, the situation has cooled and the market has rebounded, but the deeper structural problems have not been resolved.

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