Key TakeawaysBitcoin gained 5%+ since Feb. 28, while iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF fell over 2%.Correlation dropped from ~1.0 to 0.13, signaling near-complete decoupling.BTC increasingly trades as a macro/geopolitical asset, not a tech proxy.AI concerns weigh on software stocks, adding divergence pressure.Bitcoin Breaks Correlation With Software StocksBitcoin is diverging from software equities after months of tight correlation, reflecting a shift in how investors are positioning across asset classes.Since the Iran conflict began on Feb. 28, Bitcoin has risen more than 5% and traded back above $69,000, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF—a key proxy for software stocks—has declined by over 2%.This marks a clear short-term divergence after both assets moved closely together throughout much of late 2025 and early 2026.Correlation Collapses as Market Regime ShiftsCorrelation between Bitcoin and IGV dropped sharply from nearly 1.0 in early February to 0.13 following the outbreak of the conflict, indicating near-total decoupling.The metric has since partially recovered to around 0.7, but remains below prior levels, suggesting a structural shift in market behavior.Historically, Bitcoin has often traded in line with high-growth tech stocks due to its risk-on characteristics. The recent breakdown signals a potential transition toward a different role.Bitcoin Trades as Macro Asset Amid Geopolitical RiskThe divergence appears driven by Bitcoin’s increasing sensitivity to macro and geopolitical factors.Amid the Iran conflict and rising oil prices, Bitcoin has behaved more like a macro hedge, benefiting from uncertainty and shifting capital flows.This contrasts with equities, which remain more directly impacted by earnings expectations and sector-specific risks.AI Concerns Weigh on Software StocksSoftware equities have come under pressure due to concerns around artificial intelligence.Major holdings within IGV—including Microsoft, Oracle, and Salesforce—face potential margin compression as AI lowers barriers to entry and increases competition.Investors are reassessing valuations across the software sector, particularly in Software-as-a-Service (SaaS), contributing to underperformance.Divergence Highlights Changing Market NarrativeWhile both Bitcoin and software stocks remain down year-to-date, their recent divergence highlights a shift in market narrative:Bitcoin: increasingly driven by macro liquidity and geopoliticsSoftware stocks: driven by earnings, valuation, and AI disruptionThis separation suggests Bitcoin may be transitioning away from being viewed solely as a high-beta tech asset.Structural Shift or Temporary Divergence?The key question for markets is whether this decoupling will persist.If geopolitical tensions remain elevated and macro conditions dominate, Bitcoin could continue to trade independently of equities.However, a return to risk-on conditions or easing macro pressures could re-align correlations.For now, Bitcoin’s divergence from tech stocks signals a potential regime shift, with implications for portfolio allocation and cross-asset positioning.

Nate Silver has accused X of showing favoritism towards right-leaning influencers, citing Cluvio analytics that reported Elon Musk's engagement on the platform reaching 251 million year-to-date. According to NS3.AI, Nikita Bier countered Silver's claim, arguing that the example was flawed as the New York Times post was behind a paywall, accessible to only 0.1% of users.

Fox News has announced the integration of Kalshi prediction data across its various platforms, according to NS3.AI. This collaboration aims to enhance the network's offerings by providing audiences with insights derived from Kalshi's prediction market data. Walter Bloomberg reported the development, highlighting the potential for enriched content and analysis for viewers.

Peter Schiff has stated that if Bitcoin reaches $10,000 by the end of 2026, it will still be the best-performing asset of the next decade. According to Odaily, Schiff expressed confidence that Michael Saylor will use this potential to continue driving up Bitcoin's price and issue more stock to purchase Bitcoin. However, a 92% decline would make it the worst-performing investment for most long-term holders.

Key TakeawaysBinance April Proof of Reserves shows BTC at 100.03%, USDT at 105.62%, ETH at 100%.Gold-backed token PAX Gold included for the first time, bringing total assets to 49.User BTC balances fell by ~$840M, ETH by ~$374M month-over-month.Reserve ratios remain above 100%, indicating full backing of user assets.Binance Updates April Proof of ReservesBinance has released its April Proof of Reserves (PoR) report, showing continued full backing of major user assets.The latest data indicates:Bitcoin reserve ratio: 100.03%Ethereum reserve ratio: 100.00%USDT reserve ratio: 105.62%BNB reserve ratio: 100.96%All key assets remain fully collateralized, with reserves exceeding user balances.PAXG Added as Gold Exposure ExpandsFor the first time, Binance included PAX Gold in its Proof of Reserves.PAXG is a gold-backed token issued by Paxos, representing physical gold ownership on-chain. Its inclusion brings the total number of tracked assets in Binance’s reserves to 49, reflecting growing demand for tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

Peter Schiff wrote that if Bitcoin reaches $10,000 by the end of 2026, it will still be the best-performing asset of the next decade. I'm sure Michael Saylor will rely on this to continue pushing up the price of Bitcoin and issue more shares to buy it. But a 92% drop would make it the worst-performing investment for most long-term holders.

Mitsubishi UFJ Bank's foreign exchange analyst, Derek Halpenny, noted in a report that the U.S. dollar's response to the recent surge in energy prices has been relatively mild. According to Jin10, Halpenny highlighted that compared to the inflation shock of 2022, the current economic foundation of the United States appears weaker. Since the onset of the conflict, crude oil prices have risen by nearly 60%, yet the dollar index has only strengthened by about 2.5%. This reaction from the foreign exchange market is more subdued than past data might suggest. Despite the United States being a net exporter of oil, the current price shock could have a more significant impact on the U.S. economy than anticipated, potentially affecting business confidence and employment.

The Bank of England's Deputy Governor, Lombardelli, emphasized the need for a deeper understanding of how households perceive inflation. According to Jin10, Lombardelli highlighted the importance of gauging public sentiment to better inform monetary policy decisions. This approach aims to address the challenges posed by inflationary pressures on household finances and ensure that policy measures are effectively tailored to mitigate these impacts.

Avalanche (AVAX) experienced a 9.7% decline in the past 24 hours, following gains from the previous day. According to NS3.AI, this downturn is attributed to a market-wide correction and geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran conflict. AVAX is encountering resistance near the $10 mark and may find it challenging to rally unless broader market conditions improve.

TradeXYZ, an ecosystem project under HIP-3, has seen a significant increase in trading volume, reaching $2.4 billion, according to DefiLlama data. According to BlockBeats, the open interest has also surpassed $2.2 billion, both figures exceeding those of other platforms and currently accounting for 34% of Hyperliquid's total trading volume. In the perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) market, Hyperliquid, which includes TradeXYZ, recorded a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $7.1 billion and an open interest of about $7.63 billion. TradeXYZ alone reported a 24-hour trading volume of around $2.418 billion and an open interest of approximately $2.233 billion. Other major players in the market include EdgeX, with a 24-hour trading volume of $2.215 billion and an open interest of $1.001 billion; Lighter, with a trading volume of $1.88 billion and an open interest of $661 million; Aster, with a trading volume of $1.829 billion and an open interest of $1.803 billion; and Pacifica, which reported a trading volume of $431 million and an open interest of $78.93 million.

2026 has not been a good year for crypto companies as more and more projects are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet.

Iran, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan Chase: Investors have two major misjudgments regarding the situation in Iran. Golden Finance: Beneath the surface calm of the stock market, systemic risks are being severely underestimated.

Projects that rely on short-term hype are being eliminated by the market one by one, while only projects that truly fit the market and can be implemented can survive.

Stablecoins are eating into cross-border payments, and a Hong Kong-listed company has already laid the groundwork.

The central banks of South Korea and France held a two-day seminar in Seoul to discuss how digital assets like stablecoins and CBDCs affect payments and monetary policy.

Argentine President Javier Milei is facing renewed scrutiny after new evidence had been found linking him to the Libra project, despite his repeated denial of having any connection to the project.

Bitget Wallet has launched QR-based crypto payments across Asia-Pacific, letting users pay with stablecoins like USDT and USDC at local merchants directly from their self-custodial wallets.

OpenAI has urged governments to prepare for major economic changes from artificial intelligence, warning it could disrupt jobs and concentrate wealth. It proposed new policies like taxing automated labour, creating a public wealth fund, and testing a four-day workweek to help people share in AI-driven gains.

The crypto industry keeps talking about Mass Adoption, but in reality, users remain transaction users, not "users." AI, however, has the potential to help blockchain achieve true "value creation."

The XRP Ledger has reached a new milestone, surpassing 8.1 million total addresses, up from approximately 7.9 million just months earlier. Despite this progress, price action tells a different story.