OTC Weekly Trading Insights (07/24/2025)
Overall MarketIn our previous report, our desk’s analysis suggested that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate sideways at current levels for another week or two, while altcoins are likely to maintain their outperformance relative to BTC. Although we hold an optimistic view on altcoin performance in the near term, we emphasize the importance of maintaining high conviction in the projects you invest in. Chasing recent strong gainers may not yield superior returns. Given the market’s tendency for rolling rallies across different tokens, holding high-conviction assets and patiently awaiting their turn is expected to deliver better outcomes during this phase.As of July 23, Bitcoin is consolidating around the $118,000 level after briefly hovering at the $120,000 mark on July 22. On-chain data in Figure (a) shows that over 97% of BTC holders remain in-profit, hinting at strong bullish sentiment and investor resilience. Figure (a): Global In/Out of the Money addresses: BTCSource: IntoTheBlock , as at Thursday 24 July 2025.For any address with a balance of tokens, IntoTheBlock identifies the average price (cost) at which those tokens were purchased and compares it with current price. If Current Price > Average Cost, address is “In the Money.” If Current Price < Average Cost, address is “Out of the Money.”Ethereum ($ETH) has seen a notable increase in both retail and institutional engagement, with active wallets hitting an all-time high of 152 million, and unprecedented inflows into Ethereum ETFs—on Tuesday, 22 July, Ethereum ETF flows flipped those for Bitcoin for the first time since the ETFs were launched. As of the time of writing, $ETH is hovering around the $3,600 mark. Ethereum’s validator queues have ballooned on both sides, with about 521,000 $ETH waiting to exit the network and 360,000 $ETH now queued to enter the network, reflecting two opposing forces: some stakers are likely locking in gains given recent months’ price action, while fresh deposits are pushing entry, likely due to regulatory catalysts and institutional demand. Figure (b) shows how the Ethereum validator exit queue has spiked in recent days.Figure (b): Ethereum validator queueSource: The Block, as at Thursday 24 July 2025.Ethereum validators are nodes that have staked ETH and operate software to maintain network security. They alternate between proposing new blocks and validating blocks proposed by others, earning ETH rewards for their participation. Recently, the validator exit queue hit 521,000 ETH (approximately $1.9 billion), marking its highest level since early 2024. Meanwhile, the entry queue also expanded, with 359,500 ETH (around $1.3 billion) pending to be staked.It was a notable week for Solana ($SOL), with price surpassing the $200 mark for the first time since February of this year, driven by the ETH price rally alongside significant protocol upgrades. Solana temporarily overtook BNB in terms of market cap before an overnight selloff which saw the price retrace to the $180 level. Accelerate, a new Solana-based crypto treasury firm led by founder and CEO of Asymmetric Financial, Joe McCann, announced plans to go public through a SPAC aiming to raise up to $1.5 billion. BNB ($BNB) itself reached an all-time high above $800 during the past week on the back of a surge in on-chain activity and institutional interest. This rally was in part fueled by Nano Labs increasing its BNB holdings to $90 million. Increased futures activity, strong network fundamentals and bullish sentiment among traders all point to continued momentum, despite a sharp negative retrace to $767 as of Wednesday, 23. XRP also hit an all-time high of $3.66 on July 18, with the number of XRP wallets reaching a record 7.2 million - 1.4 million of which were added since August 2024. Whale-to-exchange transfers of XRP declined by 94% between July 11 to July 21, implying that large holders are not selling off despite the recent price gains.Looking forward, we are keeping an eye on BTC’s price action as it once again hovers around the key $120,000 mark. While recent altcoin price movements have been welcomed by investors, we still view easing global liquidity and lower US interest rates as necessary factors in triggering an altcoin bull market. Bitcoin ETF Tracker The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.As highlighted in our previous discussions, our desk continues to view capital inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETF as a critical driver of BTC price dynamics. According to the data presented above, despite recent outflows in the first three days of this week, net inflows are sitting at +$600m at the time of writing. As discussed earlier in this article, ETH spot ETF net inflows have been on the rise the past week (c.$2.2b for the same period). This observation paired with the above BTC spot ETF net inflows, may hint at short-term capital rotation from Wall Street. As this is only a recent trend, our desk will wait for further data to emerge before drawing any conclusions about longer-term trends. Our $150,000 year-end price target remains unchanged, assuming continued institutional adoption and capital inflows throughout the rest of the year. Demand for BTC remains robust and we expect the ongoing bull market to sustain its upward momentum in the coming months.Macro at a glance Last Thursday, July 17, 2025The Euro Area’s year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025 was in line with the European Central Bank’s official target of 2%. The annual core inflation rate (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) for June 2025 remained unchanged from the previous month and was in line with market expectations at 2.3%.In the United States, initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, well below forecasts of an 8,000 increase to 235,000. Outstanding claims saw a slight decrease to 1,956,000, below forecasts of 1,970,000.Last Friday, July 18, 2025Japan’s annual inflation rate dropped to the lowest level since November of last year, falling to 3.3% for June 2025 compared to 3.5% the previous month and in line with market expectations. Core inflation for June 2025 matched this headline rate at 3.3%. On Monday, July 21, 2025The United States’ Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.3% in June 2025 to 98.8, following no change in May 2025. The LEI is used by economists, investors & policymakers to gauge economic outlook, typically 3 to 6 months ahead. June 2025’s figure means the LEI has fallen by 2.8% over H1 2025, compared to H2 2024’s 1.3% contraction. On Wednesday, July 23, 2025The UK’s FTSE 100 closed at a record high on Wednesday, with progress in US trade talks boosting investor optimism, with the US & Japan agreeing on 15% tariffs rather than the previously planned 25% figure. Major FTSE constituents such as AstraZeneca, Shell & GSK supported the index’s rise, with 3%, 1.3% and 1.8% increases in stock price.Japan’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2025 declined to 2.3% on an annual basis, below expectations of 2.5% and 0.2% lower than the previous month’s figure. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida in his news conference said that achieving the central bank’s 2% target has increased given reduced uncertainty on trade negotiations. US crude oil inventories fell by 3.169 million barrels for the week ending July 18 2025, notably more than the 1.6 million decline expected by the market. A greater-than-expected decline in inventories implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices.Why trade OTC? Binance offers our clients various ways to access OTC trading, including chat communication channels and the Binance OTC platform (https://www.binance.com/en/otc) for manual price quotations, Algo Orders, or automated price quotations via Binance Convert and Block Trade platform (https://www.binance.com/en/convert) and the Binance Convert OTC API. Email: [email protected] for more information.Join our Telegram Channel @BinanceOTCTrading (https://t.me/+0mkJQnbQiOdlZjk0) to stay up to date with the markets!
