XRP retreated 4.3% on Wednesday, dropping from $2.09 to $2.00 as traders unwound risk following Bitcoin profit-taking — despite institutional flows into XRP ETFs surging well above trend. The move highlights a growing divergence between strong fundamental inflows and short-term technical weakness in the token.Institutional trading activity spiked 54% above the weekly average, signaling strategic selling at resistance, not retail-driven panic.What You Need to KnowXRP fell 4.3%, underperforming the broader crypto market by ~1%.Institutional flows jumped 54% above the 7-day average — consistent with distribution at resistance.ETF inflows remain strong, but XRP continues to fail at the $2.09–$2.10 ceiling.Exchange balances dropped to 2.6B tokens, the lowest in 60 days — tightening long-term supply.The rejection at $2.08 triggered a 205% volume surge (172.8M tokens), flipping the move into a clean failed breakout and driving price back to the $2.00 psychological support.Market BackgroundU.S. spot XRP ETFs added another $170 million in inflows this week — marking yet another week of zero outflows.Market makers report heavy layered sell pressure above $2.10, with persistent offers blocking upside.Exchange-held XRP supply dropped from 3.95B → 2.6B over two months, a structurally bullish signal despite near-term weakness.XRP lagged peers as the CD5 index fell 3.1%, suggesting the move was token-specific, not macro-led.The result is a market caught between strong long-term accumulation and short-term technical rejection.Price Action SummaryHigh → Low: $2.09 → $2.00Daily range: 5.4%Peak volume: 172.8M at 19:00 UTC (205% above daily avg)Resistance rejections: Multiple failures at $2.08–$2.10Late-session stabilization: Higher lows forming at $1.999–$2.005Technical AnalysisSupport$2.00: Psychological level and first defensive line$1.95: Secondary demand zone from prior accumulationResistance$2.09–$2.10: The key barrier; sellers defending aggressivelyA close above $2.10 flips structure short-term bullishVolume Structure54% above weekly trend → institutional flows, not retail breakdownVolume spike during the failed breakout confirms active sell wallsMarket StructurePrice remains inside a multi-month triangular compression, tightening as exchange supply falls.Short-term momentum bearish, with bounce attempts capped under $2.08.What Traders Are Watching$2.00 test #2: A breakdown exposes $1.95 quickly.ETF inflows: Continued inflows offset spot weakness; any slowdown would remove a key support pillar.Breakout confirmation: Requires multiple hourly closes above $2.10 with sustained >100M volume.Compression setup: Structure suggests the next breakout or breakdown will be larger than the last.Shrinking exchange supply: The wildcard — thinner supply can accelerate moves once direction confirms.

Charlie Ripley, Vice President of Portfolio Management at Allianz Investment Management, stated in a report that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his team are in a difficult position, as they must continue to find a balance between their dual mandates of employment and inflation. Ripley said, "Looking ahead, this is likely the last rate cut implemented by Chairman Powell. While we are not yet back to neutral in terms of interest rates, we can say that substantial progress has been made in curbing inflation." He pointed out that whoever is the next Fed chairman will face the same challenging balancing act, especially given the continued strong hawkish expectations for a policy stance following the rotation of voting members. (Jinshi)

The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut on Wednesday, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, but uncertain forward guidance from Chair Jerome Powell dampened expectations for a near-term Bitcoin breakout.Analysts say Powell’s remarks — neither fully hawkish nor dovish — signal that the meaningful portion of the easing cycle may not begin until 2026, leaving crypto markets without a strong macro catalyst in the short term.Powell Warns of “No Risk-Free Path,” Signals Caution AheadAt the December FOMC meeting, Powell emphasized the complexity of the current economic landscape:“In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy.”While the comments were softer than some feared, they lacked the clarity markets hoped for. According to Coin Bureau founder Nic Puckrin, Powell’s communication suggests only one rate cut may materialize in 2026 under his leadership.Puckrin noted that liquidity, not rates, will be the key macro driver:“Attention will turn to liquidity and the Fed’s balance sheet policy in early 2026. Despite the Treasury bill purchase announced today, quantitative easing isn’t coming until things start breaking — and that always means more volatility and potential pain.”Market Data Shows Traders Skeptical of Further Cuts Before 2026Bitcoin typically benefits from lower rates and increased liquidity, but futures traders remain cautious.Only 24.4% of the market currently expects another rate cut at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, according to CME FedWatch data.This uncertainty follows months of missing economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown — a gap Powell acknowledged during the press conference.Meanwhile, BTC traded around $90,375 following the announcement, holding within its recent range but lacking directional conviction.Inside the Fed’s Assessment: Growth Resilient, Housing Weak, Inflation StubbornPowell said consumer spending and business investment remain “solid,” while labor markets continue to show low layoffs and stable hiring.However, he emphasized that inflation remains elevated, and the housing sector shows persistent weakness, limiting the Fed’s room for aggressive easing.The lack of recent public economic reports has forced the Fed to rely heavily on market-based indicators — a point Powell admitted may complicate policymaking.Politics Loom Over Monetary Policy: Trump Signals Incoming Fed Leadership ShiftWith Powell’s term set to expire in May 2026, President Donald Trump has been openly weighing a replacement.Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council and a former adviser to Coinbase’s Academic and Regulatory Advisory Council, is widely viewed as the frontrunner.Trump has already signaled that the next chair will be expected to accelerate rate cuts, adding political pressure to an already delicate macro environment.Bitcoin Rally Delayed, Not CanceledThe Fed’s December decision reinforces a familiar short-term setup:Rates are lower, but not enough to trigger a risk-asset surge.Forward guidance is mixed, limiting near-term conviction.Liquidity injections have begun, but QE remains off the table until conditions worsen.BTC derivatives show skepticism, with limited expectations of a breakout before 2026.In other words, Bitcoin may remain range-bound until clearer signals emerge from the Fed — or until the next phase of easing begins.

The US federal prosecutors have charged Canadian national Nathan Gauvin for orchestrating $42 million fraud scheme, claiming for crypto investments. source: https://cryptonews.com/news/canadian-man-charged-for-orchestrating-42m-crypto-fraud-scheme-luring-users-on-discord/

Bitcoin may benefit from the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut and liquidity injections, but BTC options pricing shows traders see limited probability of a rally above $100,000 in the near term, even as macro conditions shift in favor of risk assets.Fed Cuts Rates to 3.75%, Opens Liquidity Valve With Bond PurchasesThe Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, lowering the upper bound to 3.75%, but the committee revealed an unusually split vote, with two members preferring no cut.Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious tone, citing labor-market softening and persistent inflation risks.More consequential for markets was the Fed’s announcement of a $40 billion short-term Treasury purchase program, reversing years of balance-sheet reduction. After peaking near $9 trillion in 2022, the balance sheet now sits around $6.6 trillion.The Fed’s re-entry into bond markets is designed to bolster liquidity, allowing banks more capacity to lend and stimulating investment during an economic slowdown.Bitcoin Options Market: 70% Probability BTC Stays Below $100K by JanuaryDespite improved liquidity conditions, Bitcoin derivatives traders remain cautious.The $100,000 January 30 call option trades at a premium of $3,440, implying roughly a 70% chance BTC stays under $100K through the end of January, based on Black–Scholes modeling.Just one month ago, the same call traded near $12,700, reflecting a sharp drop in bullish conviction.This expiration lies just two days after the next FOMC meeting on Jan. 28, adding macro uncertainty. According to CME FedWatch, markets assign 24% odds of another rate cut at that meeting, though visibility is limited due to the recent U.S. government data-release disruptions.Why the Fed Boosts Stocks More Than BitcoinEquities respond more directly to lower rates as cheaper financing supports earnings growth.Bitcoin, however, has lagged gold and has struggled to attract strong inflows from investors repositioning out of short-term bonds.S&P 500 is up 13% over the past six months.5-year U.S. Treasury yields dropped from 4.1% to 3.72%.Despite favorable macro shifts, whales and market makers remain unconvinced that Bitcoin can sustain a breakout, especially as store-of-value demand favors gold amid rising U.S. debt concerns.What Could Change the Outlook?Analysts note that a spike in equity risk premiums, especially in frothy segments like AI-related stocks, could redirect capital into alternative assets — including Bitcoin.But for now, BTC remains capped below $100K with derivatives positioning signaling skepticism toward a durable rally.

ASIC introduces class order exemptions, impacting stablecoin distribution in Australia, promoting innovation. source: https://coincu.com/news/asic-stablecoin-exemptions-2025/

According to an official announcement, BitMart will launch Almanak (ALMANAK) on December 11th at 21:00 (UTC+8), with the ALMANAK/USDT trading pair available. Almanak is a groundbreaking AI-native, non-custodial ecosystem that is reshaping the future of quantitative finance through verifiable, autonomous multi-agent intelligence. The platform is designed for the convergence of artificial intelligence and decentralized finance, enabling users, developers, and institutions to easily design, optimize, and deploy complex trading and asset management strategies across chains and centralized markets. Almanak provides users with an institutional-grade environment through its core innovations—the Almanak AI swarm, strategy infrastructure, and ERC-7540 tokenized AI vault—where intelligent agents collaboratively research, program, test, and execute deterministic financial strategies in just minutes. By transforming strategies into composable tokenized products, Almanak unlocks a unified layer that facilitates yield, liquidity, and capital coordination, driving the broader DeFi economy.

According to Odaily, trader Banmuxia has analyzed recent Bitcoin movements, noting a surge that occurred early in the morning, though it was not substantial. The increase from $80,500 appears to be forming a leading wedge pattern. Within the context of a major fourth wave adjustment, this leading wedge is likely the 'a' wave, suggesting that the current adjustment should not exceed the range of $93,100 to $83,800. The adjustment is nearing the 0.382 level, indicating a possible conclusion. Additionally, the $89,000 to $90,000 range serves as a strong support level. The market anticipates a potential rise to $103,500 to $112,500 over the next month, though the process may be quite volatile.

Vitalik Buterin addressed fears following a Prysm client bug that briefly slowed Ethereum’s ability to finalize blocks. source: https://coindoo.com/vitalik-buterin-says-ethereum-remains-secure-despite-recent-network-glitch/

Binance announced today that Binance Alpha will be the first platform globally to feature BeatSwap (BTX), with trading scheduled to open on December 11. The listing marks another strategic expansion for Alpha’s early-access ecosystem, offering users the opportunity to engage with emerging, high-potential digital assets before they reach broader markets. Airdrop Claims Available Through Alpha PointsOnce BTX trading goes live, eligible Binance Alpha users will be able to claim their BTX airdrop directly through the Alpha Events page using their accumulated Alpha Points. Full details — including eligibility, claim mechanics, and distribution timelines — will be released shortly source: https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/33558320524633?utm_source=BinanceNewsRSS

The Federal Reserve announced overnight that it would begin purchasing short-term Treasury bonds as needed, and the New York Fed simultaneously announced plans to buy $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds over the next 30 days. Although the RMP is not QE, the market did not care, and US Treasuries, US stocks, gold and crude oil all rose.

Ken realized that cryptocurrency was nothing more than a casino, not a revolution. But the real answer was: pragmatic optimism was the right attitude.

The gradual print begins.

The Federal Reserve ended the year with a 25 basis point rate cut, but why are internal divisions still intensifying? The dot plot and Powell's press conference were more dovish than the market expected; what are the reasons behind this, and how should we interpret them? Where will the market go from here?

In short: The 25bps rate cut was in line with expectations, but the dot plot and press conference information were more dovish than the market expected.

Powell, Federal Reserve, interest rate cuts, tariffs, inflation; Powell's underlying message: a carefully designed "scapegoating" and farewell. Golden Finance: Will there only be one interest rate cut next year?

美联储,降息,鲍威尔,货币政策,2025年12月美联储议息会议实录：RMP来了 金色财经,美联储RMP来了。

The UAE has a very clear macroeconomic strategy: to accelerate its transformation from a past oil-based economy to a future-oriented fintech hub. The crypto industry is a key sector for this leapfrog development, and it is currently in a relatively advantageous position.

Jinse Finance launches its daily cryptocurrency and blockchain news bulletin, "Jinse 8 AM," issue 2905, providing you with the latest and fastest news on the digital currency and blockchain industry.

SEC, Trump, Trump to hold "final interviews" for Fed Chair Hassett not yet a done deal, Golden Finance, Is Bessett still a potential successor?