Prediction markets are gaining traction in major Asian economies, with platforms like Polymarket reaching over $1 billion in weekly volume. According to NS3.AI, this growth occurs despite stringent gambling laws across the region. Industry experts highlight that Asian markets still face ambiguity in classifying blockchain-based prediction markets, leaving legal risks unresolved.

Nick Timiraos, a vocal advocate for the Federal Reserve, wrote that March saw 178,000 new jobs, reversing the sharp decline in February. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less encouraging: wage growth for ordinary workers slowed to its lowest year-on-year rate in five years since the pandemic recovery. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer underlying trend: an average of only 22,500 new jobs per month. Two years ago, 22,500 new jobs per month would have been alarming; now, that level might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still struggling to explain this shift. San Francisco Fed President Daly wrote on Friday, "It's not easy to get the public to understand that an economy with zero job growth is still consistent with full employment." This situation is particularly vulnerable to renewed supply shocks. If the war with Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market with little buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, the Fed's policy space is also more limited as inflation concerns could weaken the certainty of interest rate cuts. (Jinshi)

Nick Timiraos, often referred to as the 'Fed's mouthpiece,' reported on April 4 that the U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, reversing the significant decline seen in February. According to Jin10, the unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%. However, some details are less optimistic, as wage growth for ordinary workers has slowed to the lowest year-on-year rate since the post-pandemic recovery began five years ago. Averaging these two volatile months reveals a clearer underlying trend: an average monthly increase of only 22,500 jobs. Two years ago, such a level would have raised alarms, but today it might still be considered acceptable. Federal Reserve officials are still working to explain this change. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly wrote on Friday that it is not easy to make the public understand that an economy with zero job growth can still be consistent with full employment. This situation is particularly fragile if new supply shocks occur. If the war in Iran continues, high fuel costs or commodity shortages could squeeze businesses and consumers, leaving the labor market without a buffer to absorb the shock. Meanwhile, concerns about inflation may weaken the certainty of interest rate cuts, further limiting the Fed's policy space.

Despite a temporary cooling of tensions over the weekend, the United States continues its search for a crew member from an F-15E fighter jet shot down by Iran on Friday. According to BlockBeats, Tehran has maintained its aggressive stance towards Gulf Arab nations and Israel, with reports indicating a second U.S. military aircraft crashed in the Persian Gulf on the same day. The situation suggests that both sides are likely to remain on high alert next week, with expectations of U.S. ground forces potentially entering Iran. In addition to the ongoing conflict with Iran, next week's key macroeconomic event is the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which analysts believe may confirm a hawkish shift indicated in the dot plot. The schedule of events is as follows: Monday at 22:00 UTC+8, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released. Tuesday from 15:50 to 16:30 UTC+8, the final March Services PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK will be announced. Tuesday at 23:00 UTC+8, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation will be published. Wednesday at 00:35 UTC+8, 2027 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak on monetary policy. Wednesday at 17:00 UTC+8, the Eurozone February PPI month rate and February retail sales month rate will be released. Thursday at 02:00 UTC+8, the Federal Reserve will release its monetary policy meeting minutes. Thursday at 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. initial jobless claims, February core PCE price index year rate, February personal spending month rate, Q4 real GDP annualized quarter rate final value, Q4 real personal consumption expenditure quarter rate final value, Q4 core PCE price index annualized quarter rate final value, and February core PCE price index month rate will be announced. Friday at 20:30 UTC+8, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI year rate/core CPI year rate and March adjusted CPI month rate/core CPI month rate will be released. Friday at 22:00 UTC+8, the U.S. April one-year inflation rate expectation preliminary value, April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index preliminary value, and February factory orders month rate will be published. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March CPI data on Friday, marking the first inflation data reflecting the impact of the conflict. FactSet's consensus forecast anticipates the CPI year-over-year increase to rise from 2.4% to 3.1%.

On April 4, Iran's top military command announced the deployment of a new air defense system. According to BlockBeats, this system was put into operation on Friday and is expected to provide comprehensive control over Iran's airspace. The development marks a significant enhancement in the country's defense capabilities.

The NCAA 'Final Four' is set to commence tomorrow morning, with Polymarket's real-time probabilities indicating the University of Michigan as the frontrunner with a 35% chance of winning the championship. According to Odaily, the University of Arizona follows closely with a 32% probability, the University of Illinois at 19%, and the University of Connecticut at 14%. The total trading volume for this event contract has surpassed $24.9 million. In the upcoming matches, the University of Connecticut will face the University of Illinois. Connecticut aims to prove their dynasty is still alive, asserting their dominance in college basketball, while Illinois seeks to herald a new era after a 21-year wait. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan will compete against the University of Arizona, with the main intrigue being whether Arizona can leverage their inside advantage to counter Michigan's efficient offense and if Michigan's three-point shooting can penetrate Arizona's top-tier defense. The NCAA 'March Madness' refers to the National Championship of the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament. This event typically begins in March, featuring a single-elimination format, known for its intense schedule and fierce competition.

Albert Guerra has admitted to charges of bank fraud and money laundering, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of California. Guerra was accused of stealing over $170,000 from customers of West Coast banks by pretending to be a fraud investigator. According to NS3.AI, he employed rideshare drivers to gather cash from his victims. Guerra is set to be sentenced in June.

According to Odaily Seer, the NCAA Final Four will begin tomorrow morning. Polymarket's real-time probabilities show the University of Michigan with a 35% chance of winning, ranking first; the University of Arizona with a 32% chance, ranking second; the University of Illinois with a 19% chance, ranking third; and the University of Connecticut with a 14% chance, ranking fourth. As of now, the total trading volume for this event has exceeded $24.9 million. According to the Final Four schedule, the University of Connecticut will face the University of Illinois. UConn wants to prove their dynasty is not over and they remain the rulers of college basketball, while Illinois is eager to tell the world that a new era has arrived, and their 21-year wait is about to bear fruit. The University of Michigan will face the University of Arizona. The biggest suspense lies in whether Arizona can use its interior advantage to suppress Michigan's efficient offense, and whether Michigan's three-point shooting can break through Arizona's top-notch defense. NCAA "March Madness" refers to the national championship of the NCAA Division I men's basketball league. The tournament typically begins in March each year, employing a single-elimination format. Its intensive schedule and intense competition have earned it the nickname "March Madness." Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Iranian senior official Mohsen Rezaee posted on social media platform X that it would be better to remove Trump than to replace US generals. He wrote, "They claimed to have destroyed Iran's air defense system; as always, they lied. Perhaps it would be better to remove Trump than to replace military commanders." This comes after reports that US Defense Secretary Hergesse had dismissed several senior US military officials, including the Chief of Staff. (Jinshi)

Peter Steinberger addressed Anthropic's decision to ban OpenClaw, stating that OpenClaw had extended invitations to Anthropic and over ten other companies to join its non-profit organization. According to NS3.AI, Steinberger noted that Anthropic did not respond to the invitation. He emphasized that OpenClaw functions independently and highlighted that nearly all the other invited companies accepted the invitation.

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