In March 2026, prediction markets saw a total transaction volume of $25.7 billion, marking a 10.6% increase from the previous period. According to Odaily, the trading activity was predominantly concentrated among small retail users. Of the 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter, 82.3% of users engaged in transactions below $10,000. The growth was mainly driven by micro, light, and moderately active user groups, reflecting a market structure characterized by high-frequency participation with low transaction sizes. Cryptocurrency assets served as the primary entry point for prediction markets, accounting for 39.6% of micro-user activity. Bitcoin-related event contracts attracted approximately 593,000 users in the first quarter, with a transaction volume of $5.42 billion, making it the most engaged crypto prediction market. Ethereum and Solana recorded transaction volumes of $1.19 billion and $420 million, respectively. In terms of category structure, sports markets led with a transaction volume of $10.1 billion, followed by political markets at $5 billion, with geopolitical-related transactions accounting for $2.41 billion. Overall, crypto-related markets reached a total transaction volume of $7.3 billion. Analysts suggest that the growth in prediction markets is primarily driven by 'category expansion' rather than an increase in single transaction sizes. Micro users were active for an average of 2.5 days, participating in 1.45 categories, while medium users increased their activity to 9.9 days, engaging in 2.34 categories, indicating a shift from single speculative activities to sustained participation across multiple markets.

Data shows that the total trading volume of the prediction market reached $25.7 billion in March 2026, a 10.6% increase month-over-month. Trading activity was highly concentrated among small-scale retail users. Of the 1.29 million wallets tracked in the first quarter, 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000. Growth primarily came from micro, light, and moderately active user groups, with the market exhibiting a structure of "high-frequency participation and low single-transaction size." Crypto assets were the main entry point to the prediction market, accounting for 39.6% of micro-user activity. Bitcoin-related event contracts attracted approximately 593,000 users in the first quarter, with a trading volume of $5.42 billion, making it the most participated crypto prediction market. Ethereum and Solana recorded trading volumes of $1.19 billion and $420 million, respectively. In terms of category structure, the sports market ranked first with a trading volume of $10.1 billion, followed by the political market ($5 billion), of which geopolitical related transactions accounted for $2.41 billion. The overall trading volume of the crypto-related market reached $7.3 billion. Analysis suggests that predicting market growth relies primarily on "category expansion" rather than an increase in the size of individual transactions. Micro-users are active for an average of 2.5 days and participate in 1.45 categories, while medium-sized users are more active, participating in 9.9 days and 2.34 categories, indicating a shift from single-market speculation to a structure of sustained multi-market participation. (The Block)

Standard Chartered has expressed confidence in the resilience of decentralized finance (DeFi) despite recent setbacks. According to NS3.AI, the bank described DeFi as "bent, not broken" following the KelpDAO exploit on April 18, which resulted in $292 million in losses and affected the AAVE platform. The incident led to a 38% decline in AAVE deposits and a 31% drop in active loans, as stolen tokens were used as collateral for borrowing other assets. Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered remains optimistic, projecting that tokenized real-world assets will achieve a market capitalization of $2 trillion by the end of 2028, a significant increase from $35 billion in October 2025.

According to Gate data, spot silver touched $72 per ounce, a new low since April 7, down 1.53% on the day. The US dollar index (DXY) rose to an intraday high of 98.77. Both WTI and Brent crude oil prices continued to rise in the short term, last quoted at $105.75 and $107.79 per barrel, respectively.

GSR has launched the Crypto Core3 ETF, a cryptocurrency exchange-traded fund focusing on a portfolio of three core crypto assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. The product employs a weekly rebalancing strategy to dynamically adjust the portfolio structure across different cryptocurrencies, while also introducing staking rewards for the Ethereum and Solana portions. GSR has currently submitted application materials for five ETFs and will continue to expand its product portfolio to further refine its crypto asset investment strategy. (Coindesk)

Andre Cronje stated that most current decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols no longer strictly adhere to the definition of "DeFi," but rather resemble team-operated commercial systems. This has sparked industry debate regarding the introduction of circuit breakers to mitigate attack risks. In an interview, Cronje pointed out that while early DeFi was centered on immutable smart contracts, many protocols now rely on upgradeable contracts, multi-signature permissions, off-chain infrastructure, and manual maintenance processes, essentially transforming from "immutable public goods" into "operable, profitable businesses." He noted that recent security incidents, including DeFi attacks worth approximately $280 million and $293 million, have broadened industry risks beyond simple smart contract vulnerabilities to include "Web2-style risks" such as infrastructure vulnerabilities, access control issues, and social engineering attacks. To address risk management, Flying Tulip, where Cronje works, recently introduced a circuit breaker mechanism. This mechanism delays or queues withdrawals during abnormal fund outflows, providing a 6-hour emergency response window to prevent systemic runs and further losses. However, this mechanism has also sparked controversy. Michael Egorov argues that circuit breakers could introduce new centralized attack surfaces, and if controlled by signers or administrators, they could become new sources of security vulnerabilities or freeze risks. He emphasizes that DeFi design should minimize human intervention, rather than increasing the number of manually controlled nodes. Industry analysts point out that this debate essentially reflects DeFi's shift from the ideal "code is law" model to a more realistic architecture of "hybrid governance + operational control," and that security boundaries are being redefined. (Cointelegraph)

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has promised to respond regarding the prospects of Iran-U.S. talks after consulting with Iranian leadership. According to Odaily, Shahbaz shared this information during a cabinet meeting, noting that Araghchi led a delegation to Pakistan last week for comprehensive discussions with Pakistani officials. Before departing, Araghchi assured Shahbaz that he would provide feedback following consultations with Iran's leadership. Shahbaz also mentioned that the ceasefire achieved between Iran and the U.S., facilitated by Pakistan, remains in effect.

TD Securities strategists have indicated that the euro may decline if the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday and fails to commit to a rate hike in June as anticipated by the market. According to Jin10, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to emphasize uncertainties and the risks of rising inflation and slowing growth. She may suggest that more data is needed to assess the medium-term impact of rising energy prices on inflation. The strategists noted that if questioned about the possibility of a rate hike in June, Lagarde might reiterate that the ECB is prepared to act, provided the data supports such a move.

U.S. President Donald Trump held a meeting with energy company executives on Tuesday to address various issues related to domestic production, Venezuela, oil futures, natural gas, and shipping. According to NS3.AI, White House officials revealed details of the meeting, highlighting the administration's focus on energy sector challenges and opportunities.

Ether.fi CEO Mike Silagadze has addressed the decision to contribute 5,000 ETH to the Kelp hack recovery fund. According to Odaily, Silagadze expressed concerns about the potential risk the incident poses to the entire DeFi ecosystem. He warned that if Kelp were to go bankrupt, $1.5 billion worth of rsETH could be frozen for an extended period, potentially halting the $30 billion Aave lending market and triggering a chain reaction affecting both DeFi and CeFi sectors. Silagadze compared the situation to the FTX collapse, suggesting it could be more significant. He emphasized the importance of taking responsibility and quickly raising funds to prevent the worst-case scenario, contrasting this proactive approach with other institutions that have opted to rely on legal solutions.

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