The Kobeissi Letter posted on X, addressing concerns about the potential onset of World War 3 and its impact on financial markets. Despite initial fears, the market response has been relatively stable. Oil prices have retraced nearly half of their initial surge, while the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of less than 1%. Gold has seen a modest increase of 2%, and Bitcoin has turned positive for the day. The message emphasizes that there is no need for panic, as the situation is expected to stabilize.

Tensions in the Middle East have sharply escalated following a large-scale airstrike by the United States and Israel on Iran, resulting in the deaths of several high-ranking officials, including Iran's Supreme Leader. According to BlockBeats, the conflict has rapidly impacted global energy and financial markets. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the military operation against Iran could last approximately four weeks, with hundreds of targets already hit, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, air defense systems, and naval facilities. He clarified that nuclear facilities were not targeted, and disclosed the use of B-2 stealth bombers in the operation. In response, Iran announced the formation of a temporary leadership committee and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched the ninth round of "Real Commitment 4" operations, claiming to have downed several U.S. and Israeli drones. Iran warned of retaliatory strikes on regional oil and gas facilities if its energy infrastructure is attacked. Shipping data indicates that over 200 vessels, including oil and liquefied gas carriers, are anchored in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters. Some tankers have been damaged in attacks along the Persian Gulf coast. Insurance brokers predict a 25% to 50% increase in war risk premiums. Goldman Sachs estimates that a complete six-week disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could add an $18 per barrel risk premium to oil prices, while a 50% supply disruption for one month could result in a $4 premium. International oil prices surged, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil rising significantly at the start of trading. Several institutions suggest that if oil prices approach $90 per barrel, global inflation and monetary policy paths may need reassessment. Safe-haven demand has strengthened gold, while the dollar remained stable against the yen and fell against the Swiss franc. The euro dropped below 1.18 against the dollar. Major Middle Eastern stock indices fell by 4% to 5% during trading, with the Iranian stock market halting trading and several UAE exchanges announcing temporary closures. According to CME's "FedWatch," there is a 93.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March, with markets still betting on short-term policy stability. Enhanced security measures will be implemented at the U.S. Capitol. The UK reported an explosion at a British military base in Cyprus, and a curfew was imposed in parts of northern Pakistan. The EU announced plans to deploy additional naval vessels to enhance security in the Red Sea and Gulf regions. Analysts believe the core variables are whether the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, if the conflict expands to a broader region, and whether rising energy prices reignite global inflation expectations. If energy transport remains uninterrupted, markets may stabilize temporarily; however, substantial disruptions to oil and gas supplies could further amplify global asset price volatility.

South Korea's trade data reveals a significant increase in exports for February, with a year-on-year growth of 29%, surpassing market expectations of 24%. According to RTHK, this marks the ninth consecutive month of export growth. Imports, however, rose by 7.5%, which was below the anticipated 13% increase. During this period, the preliminary trade surplus was recorded at $15.51 billion. The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy of South Korea attributed the robust export performance to strong demand driven by investments in artificial intelligence and rising memory prices. This demand led to a 160% increase in semiconductor exports, setting a new monthly record. For three consecutive months, export values have exceeded $20 billion.

Vitalik Buterin has shared insights on social media regarding the execution layer roadmap, highlighting adjustments to the state tree and virtual machine. According to Odaily, the state tree will be upgraded through EIP-7864 from the current hexadecimal Merkle Patricia tree to a binary tree structure using more efficient hash functions like Blake3 or Poseidon. This change aims to shorten Merkle branch lengths and reduce verification bandwidth costs. The binary tree approach will also group storage slots into pages to lower adjacent storage access costs and reserve metadata bits for future state expiration functionality. In terms of the virtual machine, Buterin suggests a long-term direction of replacing the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) with a potential RISC-V architecture. The new virtual machine should enhance execution and proof efficiency, support client-side generation of ZK proofs, and simplify code implementation. The deployment path includes initially replacing precompiled contracts, then supporting new virtual machine contract deployment, and ultimately achieving backward compatibility while gradually replacing the EVM.

The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate on March 2. Regarding casualties, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were killed in an attack. Trump claimed to have killed 48 members of the Iranian leadership and three US soldiers, while Iran claimed 560 US casualties. The US stated it had struck over 1,000 targets and destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, using B-2 bombers to attack missile facilities; Iran claimed to have launched multiple strikes and reshuffled its military leadership. Affected by the conflict, international oil prices surged $8 at the opening on Monday, with Brent crude rising to $82.37 per barrel. US stock index futures opened more than 1% lower, while gold and silver opened higher across the board. (Jinshi)

European stock index futures experienced a downturn, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures dropping by 1.6% and Germany's DAX futures falling by 1.7%. According to Jin10, this decline reflects growing market uncertainty and investor caution in the region. The movement in futures suggests potential volatility in the European stock markets, as investors react to various economic indicators and geopolitical developments. Traders are closely monitoring these trends to assess the impact on broader market sentiment and investment strategies.

The US economic slowdown stems from distorted data, fading supporting factors, and the risk of asset bubbles. The risk of a recession rises in 2026, but a shift in the Federal Reserve's policies and fiscal stimulus could provide a buffer.

The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate on March 2. Regarding casualties, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were killed in an attack, while the Iranian presidential palace stated that Ayatollah Pezehiyan was safe. Trump stated that 48 members of the Iranian leadership were killed and that three US soldiers were killed; Iran claimed that the attack resulted in 560 US casualties. The US claimed to have destroyed the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, struck over 1,000 targets, and used B-2 bombers to attack missile facilities; Iran stated that it had launched multiple strikes against US and Israeli targets and appointed Ahmed Vahidi as the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel claimed to have eliminated several senior Iranian leaders and intensified its strikes. The UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement regarding defensive action arrangements. Shipping and financial markets in many countries were affected. (Jinshi)

Vitalik Buterin outlined the execution layer roadmap in a social media post, highlighting key adjustments to the state tree and virtual machine. Regarding the state tree, it supports upgrading the current hexadecimal Merkle Patricia tree to a binary tree structure based on a more efficient hash function via EIP-7864. This shortens Merkle branch lengths and reduces verification bandwidth costs. The hash function can be either Blake3 or Poseidon series. The binary tree scheme also groups storage slots into pages to reduce the cost of accessing adjacent storage and reserves metadata bits for future state expiration functionality. On the virtual machine side, Vitalik Buterin proposed a long-term direction of replacing the EVM, potentially using a RISC-V architecture. The new virtual machine needs to improve execution and proof efficiency, support ZK proof generation on the client side, and simplify code implementation. The deployment path includes first replacing pre-compiled contracts, then supporting the deployment of new virtual machine contracts, ultimately achieving backward compatibility and gradually replacing the EVM.

Anthropic has reportedly launched a tool for exporting ChatGPT memory data, helping users migrate their historical memory information to its Claude model. Public information indicates that users can export their memory data from OpenAI's ChatGPT by copying and pasting specific prompts and import it into Claude. Discussions suggest this feature leverages ChatGPT's reliance on memory mechanisms to maintain user engagement. The report also mentions that Anthropic was previously restricted from use by the US Department of Defense, but the company's popularity has recently increased, and it has topped some app charts. Currently, the tool's compliance and the responses from relevant platforms remain unclear.

EmperyDigital, a US-listed Bitcoin treasury holding 3,723 BTC, is embroiled in shareholder controversy. Tice P. Brown, the third-largest shareholder with a 10.3% stake, has publicly demanded the resignation of co-CEO Ryan Lane and the board of directors, and advocates for the sale of all the company's Bitcoin assets, with the proceeds returned to shareholders. Brown accuses management of misconduct, claiming the company allowed employees to engage in large-scale day trading of Bitcoin derivatives. The company denies these allegations, stating that selling all Bitcoin assets would harm its long-term strategic value. (CoinDesk)

Jinse Finance launches its cryptocurrency and blockchain industry daily news bulletin, "Jinse Morning 8," issue 2983, providing you with the latest and fastest news on the digital currency and blockchain industry.

The direct market impact will be a strengthening of global safe-haven assets, with gold continuing its bull market. If oil supply disruptions push up oil prices, US Treasury bonds will particularly benefit; global stock markets will decline, but US stocks will outperform relatively.

2026 年 2 月的最后一天，当人们在 Polymarket 下注美国是否会进攻伊朗的时候，炸弹声在德黑兰响起。

Today, a chilling stillness hangs over Shemiran, a district in northern Tehran. For Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, this stillness usually signifies security, but on this day, it becomes a prelude to death.

a16z Weekly Chart: AI Costs Halved, Usage Doubled; Technology Capital Spending to Approach Total New Bank Loans in the US by 2026.

This letter devoted a large portion to the progress of AI, and sometimes it felt like I was falling behind. The gap between newly released products and the most advanced technology from last year is stark.

A tokenized, Wall Street-compliant platform that allows ordinary investors to hold unlisted global super alpha assets.

Jinse Finance launches its cryptocurrency and blockchain industry daily news bulletin, "Jinse Morning 8," issue 2982, providing you with the latest and fastest news on the digital currency and blockchain industry.

Mining companies have never been the most devout believers in Bitcoin. Under pressure from halvings squeezing profits, increased revenue but not increased profits in financial reports, and the price of Bitcoin falling below the cost of mining, the industry has collectively de-risked.