According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 99.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 0.6%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in December is 98.6%, while the probability of cutting interest rates by 75 basis points is 0.9%.

Cboe Global Markets, operator of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), is seeking to extend options trading hours, pushing the US market closer to overnight trading. According to documents, the company proposes expanding trading hours beyond the regular trading session (9:30 AM to 4:00 PM New York time). If approved, CBOE would add a morning session from 7:30 AM to 9:25 AM and an after-hours session from 4:00 PM to 4:15 PM. US stock exchange operators are experimenting with extending trading hours to match overseas demand, and CBOE is one of the first derivatives exchanges to propose such adjustments, signaling a move by the options market to expand trading hours in tandem with the stock market. According to the documents, CBOE intends to extend trading hours only for select equity options classes, depending on trading volume, market capitalization, and trading activity. The extension would be limited to specific contracts and would be conducted on a small scale before and after regular trading.

Spot gold broke through the record high set last Friday, and was last trading at $4,389 an ounce, a daily increase of about $130.

Coinbase urged the U.S. Treasury to update outdated anti-money laundering regulations, centered around the 1970 Bank Secrecy Act, advocating for improved compliance efficiency through technological innovations such as AI and blockchain analysis. Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal stated, "Bad actors innovate, and good actors must innovate too." The company proposed establishing regulatory "safe harbors," recognizing new customer authentication methods like decentralized identity and zero-knowledge proofs, and promoting a regulatory sandbox to test new compliance models. This move contrasts with the Senate's recent proposal for stricter regulation of decentralized finance (DeFi). Coinbase emphasizes innovation and collaboration over increased enforcement.

US cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has launched a new Solana-based credit card, offering SOL token rewards and staking functionality, allowing users to earn up to 4% of their spending in SOL tokens. Gemini cited Solana's rapid ecosystem growth and active developer community as reasons for choosing it. Gemini previously launched XRP- and Bitcoin-themed credit cards, both on the Mastercard network.

Nick Timiraos, a "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," stated that as the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its cash balance, the ratio of bank reserves to bank assets has recently fallen below 13%. New York Fed President John Williams previously considered this level the critical point for "ample" reserves.

Bank of America strategists say further pressure in credit markets could trigger a new round of broad stock market sell-offs, as long-term investors, including pension funds, would be forced to sell assets. Savita Subramanian of Bank of America Securities said, "If volatility in private credit markets persists, institutions like pension funds may be forced to sell index funds to avoid valuation corrections in private assets." She noted that passive investing "dominates the S&P 500," so a market decline would force further selling from index funds. Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak+, also noted that bank ETFs could exacerbate the selling pressure. "Given the significant weakness in bank ETFs, only a small further decline would confirm a significant trend shift in bank stocks." Bank of America also noted that the S&P 500 appears "statistically expensive" across 20 different valuation metrics, suggesting that the three-year bull market faces increasing valuation risks and a rising probability of a market downturn.

OKX market data shows that BTC rebounded above 111,000 USDT and is currently trading at 111,005.2 USDT, narrowing its 24-hour decline to 1.69%. (This newsletter was generated with AI assistance)

OKX market data shows that BTC briefly fell below 110,000 USDT and is currently trading at 109,953.2 USDT, a 24-hour drop of 0.74%. (This newsletter was generated with AI assistance)

Bank of America stated that the risk of the Federal Reserve shrinking its balance sheet in October has increased. Economists at the research firm Wrightson ICAP noted that signs of funding pressure in the repo market could prompt the Fed to announce at next week's interest rate decision that it will no longer reduce its bond holdings. Fed Chairman Powell hinted in his speech earlier this month that he was awaiting the right time to end the balance sheet reduction, and last week's slight volatility in the repo market may serve as a key signal. The firm also expects the Fed to begin purchasing US Treasuries to offset maturing mortgage bonds, thereby maintaining a stable overall balance sheet size. Overall, as the Fed shifts to a neutral policy stance, the supply of short-term Treasury bonds in the market may decrease by approximately $20 billion per month. (Jinshi)

As a fusion of "technology + finance + law," the healthy development of RWA crypto businesses relies on the coordinated adherence to three types of regulations. Practitioners should abandon the "development first, compliance later" mentality and establish a classified and graded risk identification and response system.

The current core challenges facing financial markets are the liquidity shortage, increasing pressure in the repo market, and the plunge in bank stocks. This is not only a technical issue but also a product of macroeconomic policy imbalances.

Artificial intelligence, DeepSeek, OpenAI, cryptocurrency, the AI ​​trading war: Eastern power rises to the top, GPT-5 falls from grace. Who is the new god of crypto? Golden Finance, the victory of quantitative "masters" and social media "prophets."

Golden Finance has launched the 2852nd issue of "Golden Morning 8", a morning newspaper for the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry, providing you with the latest and fastest digital currency and blockchain industry news.

Golden Finance has launched the "Golden Web3.0 Daily" to provide you with the latest and fastest MEME, DeFi, DAO, NFT and metaverse industry news.

The prediction market is becoming a hot topic in the community. However, despite the hype, several major questions and concerns are also emerging.

Recommended reading tonight: 1. Is crypto VC "almost dead"? What's the future? A summary of industry insiders' views; 2. Interview with Pendle's founder: The road to a yield trading empire; 3. Galaxy: Will "Uptober" continue?

When it comes to cryptocurrency, Trump's youngest son has become his father's enlightener.

Bloomberg predicts that by 2030, global stablecoin payments could exceed $50 trillion annually.

The on-chain prediction market has exploded, and oracles are the best infra-related opportunities.