According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 87.7%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is 3.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 31.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 65.4%.

According to market news, Galaxy Digital CEO Novogratz said that the Federal Reserve’s dovish policy will push the price of Bitcoin to $200,000 and help gold prices reach new highs.

1. CZ: Aster competes with Binance, but helps BNB; 2. Trump invited four top US congressional leaders to discuss whether Congress can continue to fund the government after Tuesday; 3. Limitless raised over $50 million in its token sale on the Kaito platform, exceeding its target by 50 times; 4. Cathie Wood: Ethereum cannot surpass Bitcoin, disagreeing with Tom Lee's view; 5. Cozomo de' Medici deposited 1.28 million USDC into Hyperliquid and purchased 781,000 XPL; 6. Du Jun: Prefers investing in tokens with fundamentals, holding a small amount of BNB and HYPE; 7. Trader TechnoRevenant made over $80 million in profits on XPL in one month; 8. The implied annualized yield of Kaito YT on Pendle rose to 75.23%; 9. Two new addresses withdrew $79.48 million worth of BTC and ETH from Binance and OKX.

Market data shows that AEVO rose above 0.12 USDT and is currently trading at 0.129 USDT, with a 24-hour increase of 31.87%.

According to Cointelegraph, an increasing number of countries are showing interest in adopting Bitcoin, moving beyond initial skepticism. Jan3 founder Samson Mow highlighted this trend during a conversation on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, suggesting that the world is transitioning from gradual to sudden adoption phases. Mow emphasized the potential for more nations to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, predicting a significant increase in adoption and a possible panic-driven rush among nation-states. U.S. President Donald Trump has already signed an executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, although the United States has not yet commenced purchasing. Mow noted that the U.S. is advancing with plans for budget-neutral Bitcoin acquisition and the Bitcoin Act. Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy Digital, expressed optimism that the U.S. government might establish the anticipated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of the year. Despite leading in total Bitcoin holdings, Mow warned that the U.S. risks being outpaced by countries like Pakistan if it does not start acquiring Bitcoin soon. Currently, the U.S. government holds 198,012 Bitcoin, according to Bitbo data. Mow also anticipates significant Bitcoin activity from Latin America, a region he is particularly optimistic about. The topic of nation-state Bitcoin adoption has been a focal point in the crypto industry this year. A research paper by Fidelity Digital Assets in January predicted that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and government treasuries would seek to establish strategic positions in Bitcoin. Despite these developments, Bitcoin's price has not experienced the expected surge for 2025. Mow remarked that the anticipated bull run has not materialized, suggesting that the current cycle might extend into the next year. Bitcoin is trading at $109,400, with a 1.97% decrease over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan echoed similar sentiments, predicting an upward trend in 2026 and expressing optimism for the coming years. The ongoing debate in the industry questions the relevance of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, especially with the influence of ETFs and institutional demand. In June, Mow speculated that a $1 million Bitcoin price is inevitable, possibly occurring this year or next.

As the saying goes, September is the golden month and October is the silver month. Take advantage of the second half of the bull market to reorganize the tracks and opportunities that are still worth paying attention to.

According to PANews, a recent white paper from the United Nations highlights the successful reform of its pension system through blockchain technology, which is praised as the 'ultimate technology for digital identity verification.' This initiative was piloted in collaboration with the United Nations Joint Staff Pension Fund (UNJSPF) and the Hyperledger Foundation, aiming to enhance the security, efficiency, and transparency of global pension processes using blockchain digital identity infrastructure. Previously, the UN pension system relied on a 70-year-old paper-based method to verify the identity and status of over 70,000 beneficiaries across 190 countries. This outdated system was prone to errors and abuse, resulting in approximately 1,400 payment suspensions annually. Since the pilot in 2020 and the official implementation of blockchain digital certification in 2021, the United Nations has significantly improved its management processes. Building on the success of this pilot, the UN plans to expand the system and share it with other international organizations.

Nation-state Bitcoin adoption is at the “tail end" of the gradual stage and entering "the beginning phases of suddenly," Jan3 founder Samson Mow said. source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-fomo-nation-state-adoption-jan3-samson-mow?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound

Blockware posted that Apple CEO Tim Cook said he believes it makes sense to include Bitcoin as part of a diversified investment portfolio.

وسط نمو صاخب وأرقام قياسية، اضطر تشانغبينغ تشاو (CZ)، مؤسس منصة بينانس العملاقة، إلى الخروج وتوضيح علاقته بمنصة التداول اللامركزية الصاعدة “آستر” (Aster DEX). فقد أثارت الشائعات المنتشرة حول وجود دعم رسمي من بينانس أو من CZ شخصياً لهذا المشروع الناشئ الكثير من التكهنات في سوق العملات المشفرة. حقيقة العلاقة بين بينانس وآستر في جلسة … source: https://btcacademy.online/cz-%d9%8a%d8%ad%d8%b3%d9%85-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%ac%d8%af%d9%84-%d8%a8%d9%8a%d9%86%d8%a7%d9%86%d8%b3-%d8%ae%d8%a7%d8%b1%d8%ac-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%84%d8%b9%d8%a8%d8%a9-%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%82%d9%81%d8%b2%d8%a9/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=cz-%25d9%258a%25d8%25ad%25d8%25b3%25d9%2585-%25d8%25a7%25d9%2584%25d8%25ac%25d8%25af%25d9%2584-%25d8%25a8%25d9%258a%25d9%2586%25d8%25a7%25d9%2586%25d8%25b3-%25d8%25ae%25d8%25a7%25d8%25b1%25d8%25ac-%25d8%25a7%25d9%2584%25d9%2584%25d8%25b9%25d8%25a8%25d8%25a9-%25d9%2581%25d9%258a-%25d9%2582%25d9%2581%25d8%25b2%25d8%25a9

According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of $903 million during this week's trading days (September 22nd to 26th, US Eastern Time), with only Blackrock's IBIT Bitcoin ETF experiencing net inflows. The Blackrock IBIT Bitcoin ETF saw the largest weekly net inflow, with a net inflow of $174 million, bringing IBIT's total net inflow to $60.82 billion. The Fidelity FBTC Bitcoin ETF saw the largest weekly net outflow, with a net outflow of $738 million, bringing FBTC's total net inflow to $11.92 billion. The next largest weekly net outflow was the Ark Invest and 21 Shares ETF, ARKB, which saw a net outflow of $123 million, bringing ARKB's total net inflow to $2.10 billion. As of press time, the total net asset value of the Bitcoin spot ETF was US$143.56 billion, the ETF net asset ratio (market value as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin) reached 6.59%, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached US$56.81 billion.

The challenge is sustainability. It’s easier to soar in revenue when the story is fresh and hot, but it’s harder to maintain traction.

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